2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1275964432372424704

The suburban whiplash is real.

I think 2022 could be a bloodbath for Democrats in Jersey. They're pretty much maxed out, none of NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 are THAT blue, the fundraising source will likely dry up without Trump in office, and swing district members are almost always the first to go down.

A lot of these districts (except for one) will likely get more incumbent friendly in redistricting.  NJ-03 will likely exchange Ocean county for Trenton and NJ-05 will likely shed its rural areas to NJ-11 or NJ-07 (making one of those districts a safe Republican pickup). The Dem areas of NJ-11 and NJ-07 would then be combined into one district.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1275964432372424704

The suburban whiplash is real.

Trends are real.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.postbulletin.com/news/government-and-politics/6550329-A-tale-of-two-polls

MN-01 poll
Harper Polling (R)/Hagedorn internal
March 10-12, 2020 (no idea why it's been released now...not been anything better since for Hagedorn? I'd had this district down as safe R)
406 likely voters
MoE: 4.86%

Hagedorn 49%
Feehan 33%
Undecided 18%

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.postbulletin.com/news/government-and-politics/6550329-A-tale-of-two-polls

MN-01 poll
Harper Polling (R)/Hagedorn internal
March 10-12, 2020 (no idea why it's been released now...not been anything better since for Hagedorn? I'd had this district down as safe R)
406 likely voters
MoE: 4.86%

Hagedorn 49%
Feehan 33%
Undecided 18%

Two points.

1) The poll is three months old.
2) Harper found Hagerdon beating Feehan by 14 in 2018. He won by less than a point.   

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1275964432372424704

The suburban whiplash is real.

If there is any district in America that perfectly exhibits the suburban realignment, it's NJ-11.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Can't access the file, but 538 is linking to a PPP poll conducted for a partisan client in PA-16:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BcrifbBqJKxF4CgIJogeGOOBGlqo0yLB/view

726 voters
June 22-23, 2020

Kelly (R) 48%
Gnibus (D) 40%

Edit: extra details from other posts of this follow.

MoE: 3.6%
It's an internal for Kristy Gnibus.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Reposting here for the congressional district poll:

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1276327962204405763

[OneJ]

Reposting here for the congressional district poll:

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1276327962204405763

Looking a lot like Eastman's internal from a while ago.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1276497038658715654

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Another NY-24 poll:
https://dccc.org/the-case-against-john-katko/

DCCC Targeting & Analytics Dept.
June 18-22, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE 4.9%

Balter 48%
Katko 45%

[Gracile]

Cook has moved NY-24 from Likely R to Lean R:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/new-york-house/ny-24-katko-moves-likely-lean-republican

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1276497038658715654

Would love to see prez #s here. Would not be surprised if Good lost in November.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1276497038658715654

Would love to see prez #s here. Would not be surprised if Good lost in November.

> taking a D internal that shows their own candidate down 2 as a good sign for Dems

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1276497038658715654

Would love to see prez #s here. Would not be surprised if Good lost in November.

> taking a D internal that shows their own candidate down 2 as a good sign for Dems

Never said it was a good sign, did I? I said I would not be surprised if Webb won in Nov. First of all, Good is only up 2, and we have 3/4 months to go, with 16% undecided. Riggleman didn't win by a whole lot in 2018, and this seat is open again. Not to mention, Good seems a bit too far right for the district.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1276497038658715654

Would love to see prez #s here. Would not be surprised if Good lost in November.

> taking a D internal that shows their own candidate down 2 as a good sign for Dems

Never said it was a good sign, did I? I said I would not be surprised if Webb won in Nov. First of all, Good is only up 2, and we have 3/4 months to go, with 16% undecided. Riggleman didn't win by a whole lot in 2018, and this seat is open again. Not to mention, Good seems a bit too far right for the district.

But Corey Stewart wasnt?

[lfromnj]

I swear just because a seat looks narrow doesn't mean its not Safe, even in a R wave year Butterfield or Bishop's seat would be safe D for now(assume certain depopulation trends don't continue or blacks stay where they are politically)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I swear just because a seat looks narrow doesn't mean its not Safe, even in a R wave year Butterfield or Bishop's seat would be safe D for now(assume certain depopulation trends don't continue)

NV-02 is a good example of this too. Washoe  County takes up most of the district, but the remainder is so rock red that it is just completely unwinnable for Democrats unless they win Washoe by 20%.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1276497038658715654

Would love to see prez #s here. Would not be surprised if Good lost in November.

> taking a D internal that shows their own candidate down 2 as a good sign for Dems

aight lemme know when the gop gets even an internal that has a republican only trailing by 2 in a D+6 seat that HRC won by 11.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

UT-01 R primary internal:

https://twitter.com/ElectBlakeMoore/status/1275791446109372421

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

More old Utah polls (primary polls listed first, then GE polls). Certain D primary polls have horrible sample sizes here, so beware.

Results can all be found here: https://www.utpoliticaltrends.com/results

March 21-30, 2020 primary polls

UT-02 R primary
175 likely voters

Stevenson 73%
Burkett 17%
Jensen 6%
Jorgensen 4%

UT-02 D primary
59 likely voters

Hopkins 41%
Weston 40%
Livingston 19%

UT-03 R primary
184 likely voters

Curtis 78%
Alders 22%

UT-03 D primary
37 likely voters

Thorpe 42%
Anderson 37%
Robinson 21%

June 27-July 17, 2019 Generic Ballot polls

UT-01
554 likely voters

R 45%
D 20%
Third party 11%
Other 3%
Undecided 22%

UT-02
689 likely voters

R 37%
D 36%
Third party 7%
Other 5%
Undecided 15%

UT-03
568 likely voters

R 43%
D 21%
Third party 10%
Other 4%
Undecided 22%

UT-04
647 likely voters

D 36%
R 34%
Third party 6%
Other 3%
Undecided 21%

September 5-October 8, 2019 Generic Ballot polls

UT-01
198 likely voters

R 42%
D 21%
Third party 15%
Other 2%
Undecided 21%

UT-02
267 likely voters

R 45%
D 37%
Third party 5%
Other 2%
Undecided 11%

UT-03
227 likely voters

R 46%
D 22%
Third party 10%
Other 6%
Undecided 16%

UT-04
198 likely voters

R 37%
D 35%
Third party 8%
Other 3%
Undecided 17%

March 21-30, 2020 Generic Ballot polls

UT-01
268 likely voters

R 48%
D 24%
Third party 4%
Other 1%
Undecided 23%

UT-02
342 likely voters

R 41%
D 33%
Third party 7%
Other 1%
Undecided 17%

UT-03
354 likely voters

R 46%
D 29%
Third party 2%
Other 2%
Undecided 21%

UT-04
307 likely voters

R 38%
D 38%
Third party 4%
Other 1%
Undecided 18%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

CA-01 Democratic GE internal

https://audreyforcongress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PollingMemo.Denney.2020.06.23.pdf
Lake Research Partners/Audrey for Congress

June 10-14, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

LaMalfa 45%
Denney 41%
Undecided 11%

[Pollster]

Extremely vague reporting, but Albio Sires (D, NJ-08) appears to be taking his primary seriously.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1277950774652424193

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1277950774652424193

I’m not sure how much Dems want to invest in this race if Republicans are just gonna cut this district up in two years (much like OK-05 and GA-07).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/bc453ab900a62c2a5139a494a15c0cfa/TX-06%20DCCC%20Analytics%20-%20Toplines%20-%202020.06.24.pdf

DCCC poll for TX-06
June 24-28, 2020
376 likely voters

D 46%
R 45%
Blank ballot/refused 9%

Candidates named:

Ron Wright (R) 45%
Stephen Daniel (D) 41%
Undecided 15%