2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[n1240]

https://thewashingtonsentinel.com/free-speech-candidate-laura-loomer-opens-9-point-lead-in-florida-congressional-race/

Laura Loomer's internal in FL-21 (published on June 20, but with no sampling period/size/MoE details otherwise released) has the following:

PRIMARY
51% Loomer
4% "Nearest challenger"
Apparently an 11% improvement for her on where the race was in January

GENERAL
65% Loomer (R)
19% Frankel (D)

You're incorrectly equating the numbers with independents and overall topline which isn't actually listed other than saying "9 point lead" for reasons unknown.

Funniest thing about this poll is a Republican somehow having a 53-10 favorability rating in a district that Clinton won by 20.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/rep-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-isnt-running-as-a-fire-starter/2020/06/03/05792e7a-a597-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html

An AOC internal in a piece published on June 3 has her at 73% in her own primary.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://thewashingtonsentinel.com/free-speech-candidate-laura-loomer-opens-9-point-lead-in-florida-congressional-race/

Laura Loomer's internal in FL-21 (published on June 20, but with no sampling period/size/MoE details otherwise released) has the following:

PRIMARY
51% Loomer
4% "Nearest challenger"
Apparently an 11% improvement for her on where the race was in January

GENERAL
65% Loomer (R)
19% Frankel (D)
Edit: correction - this topline is just for independents. Loomer has a "9 point lead" in the GE.

LOL I seriously want to see the cross tabs and the samples for this poll so I can laugh. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1275174544303685640

[wbrocks67]

The GCB in this poll for PA-01 is D+12. Undecideds likely skew Dem, so Fizpatrick could be in real trouble if Biden keeps this lead and if Finello starts raising some cash

[wesmoorenerd]

https://thewashingtonsentinel.com/free-speech-candidate-laura-loomer-opens-9-point-lead-in-florida-congressional-race/

Laura Loomer's internal in FL-21 (published on June 20, but with no sampling period/size/MoE details otherwise released) has the following:

PRIMARY
51% Loomer
4% "Nearest challenger"
Apparently an 11% improvement for her on where the race was in January

GENERAL
65% Loomer (R)
19% Frankel (D)

LOL.

Jesus. This poll makes the infamous Schrader-Callahan poll look like Selzer.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Full details for that Victoria Research & Consulting/House Majority PAC poll from PA-01:

https://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-dem-pac-poll-finds-tight-pa1-race/94865/

June 7-14, 2020
407 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

With leaners:

Finello 46%
Fitzpatrick 46%
Other/neither 3%
Undecided 8%

Generic D vs Generic R:

Democrat 52%
Republican 40%
Other/neither 2%
Undecided 8%

Biden vs Trump:

Biden 53%
Trump 40%
Other/neither 5%
Undecided 7%

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I never bought that this was a Likely R race. Fitzpatrick ran against probably the worst House challenger in a battleground seat in 2018 and only narrowly won. Finello doesn’t seem to have any of Wallace’s liabilities. Fundraising shouldn’t be a huge issue either now that she’s the nominee

[wbrocks67]

I never bought that this was a Likely R race. Fitzpatrick ran against probably the worst House challenger in a battleground seat in 2018 and only narrowly won. Finello doesn’t seem to have any of Wallace’s liabilities. Fundraising shouldn’t be a huge issue either now that she’s the nominee

Agreed - Finello seems like a way better fit for the suburban district than Wallace did. I'm interested to see how much she ends up raising in June once she became the nominee.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1275116528153890819
Cowan 43%
Green 40%
Undecided 18%

The following is old (but seemed to slip under the radar here): Mutnick also had some pretty dire primary numbers from early December for Jeff Van Drew's hypothetical reelection bid as a Democrat.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1205955058510245888

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

National Research Inc./Peter Meijer (R) internal for the MI-03 Republican primary:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1275046534246281217

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Some Utah polls by Y2 Analytics for UtahPolicy.com and KUTV 2 News that we missed:

UT-01 D Primary
March 21-30, 2020
29 likely voters (lmao)
MoE: 18.2%

Darren Parry 58%
Jamie Cheek 42%

UT-01 R Primary
March 21-30, 2020
103 likely voters
MoE: 9.7%

Bob Stevenson 25%
Katie Witt 17%
Mark Shepherd 13%
Catherine Hammon 12%
Douglas Durbano 11%
Tina Cannon 8%
Kerry Gibson 7%
Blake Moore 6%
JC DeYoung 1%
Chadwick Fairbanks <1%
Zach Hartman <1%

GENERIC BALLOT POLLS, January 16-30, 2020 (MoEs between 4% and 4.2%):

UT-01
551 likely voters

R 47%
D 22%
Someone else 9%
Other 3%
Undecided 20%

UT-02
558 likely voters

R 38%
D 36%
Someone else 7%
Other 4%
Undecided 15%

UT-03
570 likely voters

R 48%
D 23%
Someone else 5%
Other 3%
Undecided 21%

UT-04
591 likely voters

R 41%
D 32%
Someone else 7%
Other 5%
Undecided 15%

Additionally, we have a new Gottheimer internal for his primary conducted by Target Smart:

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/gottheimer-has-41-point-lead-against-kreibich-in-nj-5-internal-poll-shows/
The sample size hasn't been released, but it's of likely voters with an MoE of 4.9% (sampling period: June 17-18).

Gottheimer 66% (with leaners)
Kreibich 23%

[wbrocks67]

PPP has GCB at D+11

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/NationalPOCMemoResultsJune20.pdf

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Club for Growth has two surveys out (by WPA Intelligence) for TX-13's R runoff, in which their endorsed candidate Ronny Jackson is pitted against Josh Winegarner:
https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CfGPAC_TX_CD13_BrushfireSummary_200619.pdf

May 11-12, 2020

Winegarner 47%
Jackson 36%
Undecided 17%

June 17-18, 2020
408 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Jackson 49%
Winegarner 41%
Undecided 10%

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1275503351946510336

TX-32, TX-24, possibly TX-06?

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1275503551712833536

AZ-06 and/or AZ-01

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PPP has GCB at D+11

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/NationalPOCMemoResultsJune20.pdf

TWO MORE YEARS!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/707753/democratic-poll-finds-narrow-lead-for-perry

PA-10
GBAO Strategies/DePasquale internal
May 28-31, 2020
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Perry 50%
De Pasquale 47%

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/707753/democratic-poll-finds-narrow-lead-for-perry

PA-10
GBAO Strategies/DePasquale internal
May 28-31, 2020
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Perry 50%
De Pasquale 47%

Underwhelming numbers for one of Democrats' most prized recruits.

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.politico.com/playbook

FIRST LOOK FOR PLAYBOOKERS … MINNESOTA REP. TOM EMMER, the chair of the House GOP’s campaign arm, will use a virtual meeting of House Republican lawmakers this morning to brief them on a new battleground poll the Terrance Group conducted June 7-10 among 1,014 swing voters. Here are the highlights:

THE POLL SHOWS REPUBLICANS hold a 1-point advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot (testing a generic R vs. generic D). … THE ECONOMY is a top concern of voters -- 23% says it’s their top concern, followed by corruption in D.C. at 20% and the coronavirus at 10%. 56% of voters approve of the job the president is doing on the economy. … Unsurprisingly, DEFUNDING POLICE is unpopular, with 59% of swing voters opposed. But 51% support the protests -- which might help explain some of the urgency to address police conduct. Read the memo Republicans will get this morning

NRCC internal: R+1 on the generic ballot

[tagimaucia]

https://www.politico.com/playbook

FIRST LOOK FOR PLAYBOOKERS … MINNESOTA REP. TOM EMMER, the chair of the House GOP’s campaign arm, will use a virtual meeting of House Republican lawmakers this morning to brief them on a new battleground poll the Terrance Group conducted June 7-10 among 1,014 swing voters. Here are the highlights:

THE POLL SHOWS REPUBLICANS hold a 1-point advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot (testing a generic R vs. generic D). … THE ECONOMY is a top concern of voters -- 23% says it’s their top concern, followed by corruption in D.C. at 20% and the coronavirus at 10%. 56% of voters approve of the job the president is doing on the economy. … Unsurprisingly, DEFUNDING POLICE is unpopular, with 59% of swing voters opposed. But 51% support the protests -- which might help explain some of the urgency to address police conduct. Read the memo Republicans will get this morning

NRCC internal: R+1 on the generic ballot

Isn't this just R+1 among whatever they're defining as "swing voters?" LOL either way.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.politico.com/playbook

FIRST LOOK FOR PLAYBOOKERS … MINNESOTA REP. TOM EMMER, the chair of the House GOP’s campaign arm, will use a virtual meeting of House Republican lawmakers this morning to brief them on a new battleground poll the Terrance Group conducted June 7-10 among 1,014 swing voters. Here are the highlights:

THE POLL SHOWS REPUBLICANS hold a 1-point advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot (testing a generic R vs. generic D). … THE ECONOMY is a top concern of voters -- 23% says it’s their top concern, followed by corruption in D.C. at 20% and the coronavirus at 10%. 56% of voters approve of the job the president is doing on the economy. … Unsurprisingly, DEFUNDING POLICE is unpopular, with 59% of swing voters opposed. But 51% support the protests -- which might help explain some of the urgency to address police conduct. Read the memo Republicans will get this morning

NRCC internal: R+1 on the generic ballot

Isn't this just R+1 among whatever they're defining as "swing voters?" LOL either way.

I mean if its present swing voters rather than a pool weighted by historic swing, it actually makes the most sense for it to be GOP leaning. The current situation has pushed the center of gravity so that swing voters were former republicans and former swing voters are now Biden voters.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-hate-crimes-bill-draws-increased-gop-support-after-protests/ximjkpbBNxfNOsP7bJ0SSP/

PPP/EMILY's List
Bordeaux (D) 42%
McCormick (R) 39%

The MoE is at least 3% as the lead is quoted as within it.

Edit: 538 says the sample size is 589 likely voters.
Edit 2: the poll is up here and the survey was taken from June 22 to June 23.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.politico.com/playbook

FIRST LOOK FOR PLAYBOOKERS … MINNESOTA REP. TOM EMMER, the chair of the House GOP’s campaign arm, will use a virtual meeting of House Republican lawmakers this morning to brief them on a new battleground poll the Terrance Group conducted June 7-10 among 1,014 swing voters. Here are the highlights:

THE POLL SHOWS REPUBLICANS hold a 1-point advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot (testing a generic R vs. generic D). … THE ECONOMY is a top concern of voters -- 23% says it’s their top concern, followed by corruption in D.C. at 20% and the coronavirus at 10%. 56% of voters approve of the job the president is doing on the economy. … Unsurprisingly, DEFUNDING POLICE is unpopular, with 59% of swing voters opposed. But 51% support the protests -- which might help explain some of the urgency to address police conduct. Read the memo Republicans will get this morning

NRCC internal: R+1 on the generic ballot

Isn't this just R+1 among whatever they're defining as "swing voters?" LOL either way.

Or in specific states, since it's a "battleground poll"?

It's funny that they misspelled the pollster name (it's actually Tarrance Group).

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1275964432372424704

The suburban whiplash is real.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1275964432372424704

The suburban whiplash is real.

I think 2022 could be a bloodbath for Democrats in Jersey. They're pretty much maxed out, none of NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 are THAT blue, the fundraising source will likely dry up without Trump in office, and swing district members are almost always the first to go down.