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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: ON Progressive)
  Was Romney's defeat one of the GOP's most disappointing?
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Author Topic: Was Romney's defeat one of the GOP's most disappointing?  (Read 1338 times)
sg0508
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« on: October 11, 2019, 07:50:30 am »

1) The incumbent was clearly beatable
2) The love for Obama wasn't what it was in '08.  The "feeling" was more subdued
3) The economy was still shaky

Given this, was this one of the GOP's most disappointing defeats?

It was pretty clear they weren't winning in '08 starting with the day Lehman collapsed. 

In '92, they pretty much knew they were done at the beginning of the year with the economy and the raising of taxes. 
In '96, Dole was no match for Clinton and they knew the euphoria of '94 had worn off.

Opinions?
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slothdem
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2019, 08:18:05 am »

1) The incumbent was clearly beatable


Was he though? I don't think there is a candidate or campaign that would have beaten Obama in 2012.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2019, 09:18:19 am »

No
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Аverroës 🦉
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2019, 09:34:42 am »

Was he though? I don't think there is a candidate or campaign that would have beaten Obama in 2012.

There's little indication of electability among those who made it to the point of declaring a campaign, but the case for someone like Mitch Daniels or John Thune is pretty strong.

Whether those candidates could have won the nomination is more questionable. Their decision not to take their campaigns past the invisible primary stage suggests that they judged that this was unlikely, as does Mitt Romney's experience as the perennial second choice to the lumpenconservative of the week.

My read has always been that Obama was only able to win because he ran a really strong campaign against a candidate who had to kneecap himself to win the Republican primaries. (Trump's capture of the Republican nomination in 2016 greatly strengthened my opinion on the latter.)

All of this tells us that Romney's defeat is one of the most disappointing in US history, but only for the limited set of GOP party loyalists who liked Romney and have remained hostile toward Trump. They came very close to dominating the federal government. Just a few years later, they've lost control of their own party.

I don't feel much pity for them. I was as relieved by Paul Ryan's departure from Congress as I will be when Trump leaves the White House.
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coolface1572
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2019, 03:43:06 pm »

1) The incumbent was clearly beatable


Was he though? I don't think there is a candidate or campaign that would have beaten Obama in 2012.

Ron Paul could have beaten Obama.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2019, 07:42:19 pm »

As a conservative who despises the Obama presidency, I was PUMPED up for Romney in 2012. At that point, I saw Romney as a strong nominee and thought he would make an awesome President. After the first debate, I really thought he had momentum, but sadly, he wasted that away in the closing weeks of the campaign. He did not fight back and let Candy Crowley run interference for Obama in the 2nd debate. Romney's defeat was devastating. But that campaign taught myself and the conservative base that no matter who we nominate, the Dems and their media propagandists will portray the GOP nominee as racist/sexist/xenophobe/cold hearted capitalist. So in 2016 we had to nominate a street fighter who would actually fight back. That man was Donald J. Trump, the current President of the United States.
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Sen. Mark Meadows
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« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2019, 11:20:58 am »

1) The incumbent was clearly beatable


Was he though? I don't think there is a candidate or campaign that would have beaten Obama in 2012.

Ron Paul could have beaten Obama.

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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2019, 11:07:26 am »

Yes, but I think ultimately, the GOP couldn't overcome..

1. Vivid memories of Dubya's presidency and while Dubya wasn't as unpopular in 2012 as in 2008, he was still pretty unpopular

3. Satisfaction with Obama's foreign policy (cracks wouldn't start to show until the second term)
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538Electoral
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« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2019, 02:39:58 pm »

Yes. Romney was leading in the national popular vote for a while before the election. We saw how NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, NH, VA and FL were all within reach for Romney.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2019, 03:03:31 pm »

Yes. Romney was leading in the national popular vote for a while before the election. We saw how NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, NH, VA and FL were all within reach for Romney.

The national polls underestimated Obama though. Obama won NV by 7 points, CO by 5 points, IA by 6 points, WI by 7 points, OH by 3 points, NH by 6 points, VA by 4 points, and FL by 1 point. Remember Obama won the popular vote by 4 points, so he had a notable advantage in the Electoral College.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #10 on: November 20, 2019, 03:13:02 pm »

Yes. Romney was leading in the national popular vote for a while before the election. We saw how NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, NH, VA and FL were all within reach for Romney.

The national polls underestimated Obama though. Obama won NV by 7 points, CO by 5 points, IA by 6 points, WI by 7 points, OH by 3 points, NH by 6 points, VA by 4 points, and FL by 1 point. Remember Obama won the popular vote by 4 points, so he had a notable advantage in the Electoral College.


Romney pick of Ryan is probably the worst vp choice ever when it comes to political impact(McCain wouldnt have won after Lehman) as Ryan's views on entitlements cost Romney FL and didnt help him at all in key Rust Belt states like OH and PA. That made Romney's path to 270 extremely narrow that entire cycle which allowed Obama to play on offense the entire cycle .

Romney should have picked Portman, as if he picked Portman he very likely wins FL and OH which would put him at 253 and Obama would have to put in lots of resourced to defend PA as well which then he couldnt use on states such as VA , IA , CO and Romney could play offensive in those states.
Portman also would faceplant in the VP debate which halted much of the momentum the Romney camp had after the 1st debate


I think if Romney chose Portman as his vp he would have won
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2019, 03:24:44 pm »

Yes, but I think ultimately, the GOP couldn't overcome..

1. Vivid memories of Dubya's presidency and while Dubya wasn't as unpopular in 2012 as in 2008, he was still pretty unpopular

3. Satisfaction with Obama's foreign policy (cracks wouldn't start to show until the second term)
It didn’t help that Romney’s talking points on foreign policy sounded like a desire to return to Dubya’s foreign policy and Romney’s running mate was one of the leaders of Dubya’s plan to privatize Social Security.
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2019, 03:42:42 pm »

I know I shouldn’t say this but I wish Romney had won in 2012 because then we wouldn’t have Trump. It’s also worth saying that if Hillary had been nominated in 2008 we wouldn’t be in this mess.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2019, 01:23:38 am »

Yes. Romney was leading in the national popular vote for a while before the election. We saw how NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, NH, VA and FL were all within reach for Romney.

The national polls underestimated Obama though. Obama won NV by 7 points, CO by 5 points, IA by 6 points, WI by 7 points, OH by 3 points, NH by 6 points, VA by 4 points, and FL by 1 point. Remember Obama won the popular vote by 4 points, so he had a notable advantage in the Electoral College.

I do believe Romney would've won most if not all of these states if not for some mistakes near the end of the campaign.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2019, 01:27:59 am »

Yes. Romney was leading in the national popular vote for a while before the election. We saw how NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, NH, VA and FL were all within reach for Romney.

The national polls underestimated Obama though. Obama won NV by 7 points, CO by 5 points, IA by 6 points, WI by 7 points, OH by 3 points, NH by 6 points, VA by 4 points, and FL by 1 point. Remember Obama won the popular vote by 4 points, so he had a notable advantage in the Electoral College.

I do believe Romney would've won most if not all of these states if not for some mistakes near the end of the campaign.

You can believe that, but there isn't any evidence to convincingly argue that Romney could have made up those margins with a change in October. It just doesn't seem plausible.
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Orser67
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« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2019, 12:13:38 pm »

Nah. Absent a huge scandal or the onset of a recession, unseating an incumbent is difficult. And Obama was reasonably popular; his approvals did reach the low 40s in 2011, but after his honey moon year he was generally in the mid-to-high 40s during his first term. As in 2004, the incumbent might have been beatable, but it would have taken a great candidate, and I don't think people should be too hard on Romney for the loss.
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