2008: President John Kerry vs. John McCain

[538Electoral]

In 2004, We'll assume Kerry wins 2004+IA, NM, OH, NV for a 289-249 victory over President Bush.

We'll also assume the recession still happens and the Iraq war ends but leads to more problems in the Middle East.

307-231

[Pericles]

McCain wins in a landslide with strong Republican congressional majorities.

[Politician]

[538Electoral]

Aside from maybe Oregon, This would definitely be McCain's best case under these circumstances. Good map!

[Kingpoleon]

366: John McCain/Christine Todd Whitman* - 55.5%
172: John Kerry/Russ Feingold - 42.4%
Others - 2.1%

*Elected Governor again in 2005

Running against an incumbent in the midst of a recession? I imagine the map looks something like this.

[Agonized-Statism]

President John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) ✓

Iraq is federalized and then partitioned into three states, leading to further conflict between the Sunnis and Shi'ites and increased confrontation with Iran. Edwards resigns following a personal scandal. 2004 DNC keynote speaker Barack Obama is Kerry's running mate, helping add some popularity back to the ticket amid economic downturn.

President McCain starts a war in Iran in 2009 in support of the Persian Spring and for fear that nuclear weapons are being manufactured, later expanded into former Iraq and then Syria to take out Iranian proxies. Decent chance that confrontation with Russian forces triggers nuclear war.

[NewYorkExpress]

First, following the Rielle Hunter scandal, Edwards is forced to resign, so Kerry is forced to pick someone else as VP.

Kerry loses because of the recession, and Democrats drop below forty seats in the Senate and take more heavy losses in the House (as they would have also likely taken heavy losses in 2006 too)

John McCain/Jeb Bush 54% 355 EV
John Kerry/Barack Obama 43% 183 EV

[HillGoose]

President McCain starts a war in Iran in 2009 in support of the Persian Spring and for fear that nuclear weapons are being manufactured, later expanded into former Iraq and then Syria to take out Iranian proxies. Decent chance that confrontation with Russian forces triggers nuclear war.

🔥🔥🔥 President McCain would have been the 🐐🐐🐐