WI-GOV 2022: Can Sen. Ron Johnson beat Evers?

[IceSpear]

Probably not.  His two (2) elections were a bit flukish.  He'd have lost in 2016 had Trump not carried the state, and had he been running against a fresh candidate and not a retread like Feingold.

I agree with this (except for calling Feingold a retread - there weren't any more credible options than him). Johnson isn't a juggernaut. He won in what were effectively two wave years for midwestern Republicans. His win in 2016 had more to do with Feingold having the Clinton albatross around his neck than it did Feingold himself.

Dude performed 3 points worse than Clinton, that's not getting dragged down by Clinton, if anything he pulled Clinton down! And 2016 was not a Republican wave

Feingold's loss being attributed to Clinton has always been an odd meme considering he did significantly worse than her. I suppose Ted Strickland would've won if not for Satan Incarnate too!

[Xing]

While obviously Hillary Clinton herself isn't to blame for Feingold's loss, the DSCC basically declaring victory months before the election almost certainly hurt Feingold, and massively. Now, Hillary Clinton was not the Supreme Leader of the DSCC and all Democratic Party functions in 2016, but that level of nuance is lost on this forum, thus why "Hillary" is often blamed.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Probably not.  His two (2) elections were a bit flukish.  He'd have lost in 2016 had Trump not carried the state, and had he been running against a fresh candidate and not a retread like Feingold.

I agree with this (except for calling Feingold a retread - there weren't any more credible options than him). Johnson isn't a juggernaut. He won in what were effectively two wave years for midwestern Republicans. His win in 2016 had more to do with Feingold having the Clinton albatross around his neck than it did Feingold himself.

If you look at Feingold's entire electoral record, you'd see that after his amazing primary win in 1992, he's been a big of an underperformer.  That, and he is very much a retread.

Retreads have, over a long period of time, done poorly in politics.  Phil Bredesen.  Tommy Thompson.  Mike Castle.  Walter Mondale (MN Senate Seat, 2002).  Ted Strickland.  You can go all the way back to former MI Gov. G. Mennen Williams running against Republican Robert Griffin for Michigan's Senate Seat in 1966, and the overall record is surprisingly bad. 

There have been some surprises.  Slade Gorton lost in WA in 1986 and made a comeback in 1988.  Paul Laxalt made a comeback in 1974 and flipped a seat in a Democratic year in NV.  They are exceptions.  Castle lost the primary to a fringe candidate (although he MIGHT have won the General Election had he been nominated).  I think the lesson of all of this is that voters grow tired of incumbents, and when they lose an election, that's real evidence that their verdict is lasting.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Probably not.  His two (2) elections were a bit flukish.  He'd have lost in 2016 had Trump not carried the state, and had he been running against a fresh candidate and not a retread like Feingold.

I agree with this (except for calling Feingold a retread - there weren't any more credible options than him). Johnson isn't a juggernaut. He won in what were effectively two wave years for midwestern Republicans. His win in 2016 had more to do with Feingold having the Clinton albatross around his neck than it did Feingold himself.

If you look at Feingold's entire electoral record, you'd see that after his amazing primary win in 1992, he's been a big of an underperformer.  That, and he is very much a retread.

Retreads have, over a long period of time, done poorly in politics.  Phil Bredesen.  Tommy Thompson.  Mike Castle.  Walter Mondale (MN Senate Seat, 2002).  Ted Strickland.  You can go all the way back to former MI Gov. G. Mennen Williams running against Republican Robert Griffin for Michigan's Senate Seat in 1966, and the overall record is surprisingly bad. 

There have been some surprises.  Slade Gorton lost in WA in 1986 and made a comeback in 1988.  Paul Laxalt made a comeback in 1974 and flipped a seat in a Democratic year in NV.  They are exceptions.  Castle lost the primary to a fringe candidate (although he MIGHT have won the General Election had he been nominated).  I think the lesson of all of this is that voters grow tired of incumbents, and when they lose an election, that's real evidence that their verdict is lasting.

I wouldn't say Feingold underperformed until 2016, when Hillary won 2,000 more raw votes than him. Even then, he still won a larger share of the vote than Hillary (~0.3% more). ~28,000 fewer votes were cast in the Senate race that year, causing that disparity in the raw vote. I am almost sure that if 28,000 more people voted in the Senate race, Feingold would have outran Hillary.

He overperformed Clinton in 1992, bound to happen anyway with the three-way race. Feingold then won an upset second term while overcoming Tommy Thompson's 20-point re-election landslide in 1998, a Democratic midterm year (a strange one, though!). In 2004, he managed to overperform Kerry by ~6 points.

Come his 2010 loss, he ran close to Tom Barrett's loss to Scott Walker, and performed closely to Hillary as mentioned above.

[Sir Mohamed]

While obviously Hillary Clinton herself isn't to blame for Feingold's loss, the DSCC basically declaring victory months before the election almost certainly hurt Feingold, and massively. Now, Hillary Clinton was not the Supreme Leader of the DSCC and all Democratic Party functions in 2016, but that level of nuance is lost on this forum, thus why "Hillary" is often blamed.

Maybe Feingold's loss was some of his own making, too? 2016 was some sort of change election "we have eneough of the same old" etc. Feingold was pretty much the wrong messager for this, especially in a state like WI.

[pbrower2a]

Barring overt malfeasance involving a State governor, State governors tend to get re-elected for second terms. 

[MT Treasurer]

He’d be the favorite in a Biden/Warren midterm.