What if Islam Conquered Europe (or, at least, present-day France)?

[Frodo]

Let's suppose that the battle of Tours was avoided simply if the Muslim commander, Abdul Rahman al Ghafiqi had done his due diligence and conducted reconnaissance, and been made aware of a potentially formidable enemy to his north.

How differently would history have unfolded?  What if he had taken the fight directly to the Prince and Duke Charles Martel on ground (and at a time) of his own choosing?  With the Franks the only force capable of resisting the Muslim tide, what if they had succumbed as the Visigoths had done earlier in Spain?  Would we be talking Al-Andalus writ large across the continent?  Or following the Roman example after conducting raids beyond the Rhine throughout the continent, the Muslim invaders would have been content to remain in the Iberian peninsula?  Maybe turned their attention to Italy, then being fought over between the Lombards and the Byzantine Empire?    

[thumb21]

I doubt that the Muslims would have conquered Europe because they were already very overextended. After conquering France, where do they go next? If they go to Germany, they are going very deep into Europe and overextending themselves even more. As far as I see it, the deeper into Germany they go, the more they expose themselves to enemies, I could see them making a lot of progress but I don't think it'd last long. Italy is better protected with the Alps and the terrain is more mountainous. That said, I could see permanent Muslim strongholds surviving in Italy for centuries, and not just Sicily. Britain at the time wouldn't really be worth invading, although it could be a threat to Muslim France to have an untouched Christian stronghold across the sea. Plus as the Vikings rise, Muslim Europe would face even more pressure.


Long term, the main problem for Muslim France is the defensibility of its borders. The Alps are good, but the whole north-east is exposed to the North European plains. All it would take is a strong power to rise in Germany and for Muslim armies to be occupied elsewhere and northern France would likely fall. I think that eventually, all of Muslim France would fall to the Christians, although you could see a few remnants survive longer, particularly around the Fraxinet area. This would, however, give the Muslims more time to consolidate in Spain and I could easily see a Muslim Spain surviving until today with a strong barrier along the Pyrenees protecting it from Christian Europe.

In terms of the longer term implications, who knows? A lot comes down to who discovers America and when. I'm not going to try and predict that.

[Frodo]

I doubt that the Muslims would have conquered Europe because they were already very overextended. After conquering France, where do they go next? If they go to Germany, they are going very deep into Europe and overextending themselves even more. As far as I see it, the deeper into Germany they go, the more they expose themselves to enemies, I could see them making a lot of progress but I don't think it'd last long. Italy is better protected with the Alps and the terrain is more mountainous. That said, I could see permanent Muslim strongholds surviving in Italy for centuries, and not just Sicily. Britain at the time wouldn't really be worth invading, although it could be a threat to Muslim France to have an untouched Christian stronghold across the sea. Plus as the Vikings rise, Muslim Europe would face even more pressure.


Long term, the main problem for Muslim France is the defensibility of its borders. The Alps are good, but the whole north-east is exposed to the North European plains. All it would take is a strong power to rise in Germany and for Muslim armies to be occupied elsewhere and northern France would likely fall.

How would a strong power rise in Germany, though?  Bear in mind that the catalyst for the creation of the Holy Roman Empire (aka, the First Reich) were the conquests by the greatest Frankish king in history, Charlemagne.  Absent that, who would take his place with the Franks subsumed in an expanded Al-Andalus?  Even in OTL, it took centuries for the squabbling Christian kingdoms in northern Spain that fought each other at least as much as they fought the Muslims to eventually retake the peninsula.  And there were rarely more than a handful of them.  

Imagine how much longer it would take for the even greater number of feuding Germanic tribes to reduce the Muslim presence in France to the Mediterranean region, if they even made it that far.  

No, I think we would see a Muslim France and Spain (not to mention Portugal) surviving to this very day.     


   

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

There would be no European colonization of the Americas, since they stumbled upon the New World while looking for a new trade route to the Far East, in order to circumvent Muslim-held Middle East.

Alternatively, the Muslim world, now including Europe, would "discover" the Americas, but I think they'd be more likely to settle on converting the natives and setting up trade posts, than try European-style imperialism.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There would be no European colonization of the Americas, since they stumbled upon the New World while looking for a new trade route to the Far East, in order to circumvent Muslim-held Middle East.

Alternatively, the Muslim world, now including Europe, would "discover" the Americas, but I think they'd be more likely to settle on converting the natives and setting up trade posts, than try European-style imperialism.

You're assuming that the Muslim world would be far more united than it was in real life.

There's no reason an Islamic Iberia wouldn't engage in explorations down the coast of Africa much as the Portuguese did. Whether there would be another Western European power to try the longshot of heading west to get to the Indies is a separate issue.

In any case, Tours was more important for the Franks than the Muslims. The failure to take Constantinople a decade and a half earlier did far more to contain the Muslims than did Tours. Even if the Muslims had taken Gaul, it's hard to see where they'd go next from there. The Franks would still control the Rhineland and the Lombards northern Italy.

[thumb21]

I doubt that the Muslims would have conquered Europe because they were already very overextended. After conquering France, where do they go next? If they go to Germany, they are going very deep into Europe and overextending themselves even more. As far as I see it, the deeper into Germany they go, the more they expose themselves to enemies, I could see them making a lot of progress but I don't think it'd last long. Italy is better protected with the Alps and the terrain is more mountainous. That said, I could see permanent Muslim strongholds surviving in Italy for centuries, and not just Sicily. Britain at the time wouldn't really be worth invading, although it could be a threat to Muslim France to have an untouched Christian stronghold across the sea. Plus as the Vikings rise, Muslim Europe would face even more pressure.


Long term, the main problem for Muslim France is the defensibility of its borders. The Alps are good, but the whole north-east is exposed to the North European plains. All it would take is a strong power to rise in Germany and for Muslim armies to be occupied elsewhere and northern France would likely fall.

How would a strong power rise in Germany, though?  Bear in mind that the catalyst for the creation of the Holy Roman Empire (aka, the First Reich) were the conquests by the greatest Frankish king in history, Charlemagne.  Absent that, who would take his place with the Franks subsumed in an expanded Al-Andalus?  Even in OTL, it took centuries for the squabbling Christian kingdoms in northern Spain that fought each other at least as much as they fought the Muslims to eventually retake the peninsula.  And there were rarely more than a handful of them.  

Imagine how much longer it would take for the even greater number of feuding Germanic tribes to reduce the Muslim presence in France to the Mediterranean region, if they even made it that far.  

No, I think we would see a Muslim France and Spain (not to mention Portugal) surviving to this very day.     

I don't really know when or how nessessarily, and that doesn't really matter because whether the Germans got their act together and attacked fairly soon after conquest, or waited severall hundred years, most of Muslim France's vulnerabilities would still exist and in my view, it would be much more vulnerable than Muslim Spain was OTL.

1. Muslim France would be surrounded by hostile Christian powers who would see it as a threat and want to defeat it. There'd be significant motivation for alliances to be formed between various tribes and states along the border.
2. France, especially Northern France would be isolated from the rest of the Muslim world. While various Berber Empires would cross the straight of Gibraltar and enter central and southern Spain very easily, France would be a much further distance for North Africans, let alone any support from the Middle East.
3. Northern France is mostly flat plains, wide open for any invading force. Spain, meanwhile, is much more mountainous.
4. While the reconquista was mounted from the mountainous regions of Northern Spain, this reconquest could be mounted from the Rhineland, which is clearly a more powerful starting point, even if the Germanic tribes were too divided.

And its not just the Germans that the Muslim French would have to defend against, the Vikings would also likely be invading the region and even the English may cause trouble.

[Kingpoleon]

If not the Franks, the Bretons, Normans, Frisians, and Flemish would likely fight alongside the Anglo-Saxons in northern Gaul. Perhaps Rhodri Molwynog, King of Gwynedd and, by some accounts, a descendant of a Breton chief, would become a reverse Conqueror.