Twitter thread on Louisiana early voting
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  Twitter thread on Louisiana early voting
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Author Topic: Twitter thread on Louisiana early voting  (Read 1879 times)
MT Treasurer
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« Reply #25 on: October 05, 2019, 08:26:00 AM »

At the rate things are going, Democrats could lose all three gubernatorial races. Polarization could very well drag Edwards into the same abyss that Hood and Beshear will soon be cast into.

So are you going to use this word in literally every single one of your posts now?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #26 on: October 05, 2019, 09:10:24 AM »

At the rate things are going, Democrats could lose all three gubernatorial races. Polarization could very well drag Edwards into the same abyss that Hood and Beshear will soon be cast into.

So are you going to use this word in literally every single one of your posts now?

Not in every post, if you've bothered to look at what I've written.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #27 on: October 05, 2019, 01:19:37 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2019, 01:23:29 PM by Skill and Chance »

Interesting.  The very extensive use of early voting this year is probably driven by the big LSU football game on election day, which will presumably drive down ED turnout.  My understanding is that college football viewership skews quite R vs. the general population, so I am not surprised they are so overrepresented in early voting this year.  I would be very careful about comparing to past EV turnout because of this dynamic.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #28 on: October 05, 2019, 02:03:48 PM »

Interesting.  The very extensive use of early voting this year is probably driven by the big LSU football game on election day, which will presumably drive down ED turnout.  My understanding is that college football viewership skews quite R vs. the general population, so I am not surprised they are so overrepresented in early voting this year.  I would be very careful about comparing to past EV turnout because of this dynamic.


310k voters voted early, you can’t just dismiss such numbers like that.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #29 on: October 05, 2019, 02:10:55 PM »

Interesting.  The very extensive use of early voting this year is probably driven by the big LSU football game on election day, which will presumably drive down ED turnout.  My understanding is that college football viewership skews quite R vs. the general population, so I am not surprised they are so overrepresented in early voting this year.  I would be very careful about comparing to past EV turnout because of this dynamic.


310k voters voted early, you can’t just dismiss such numbers like that.
French R is correct here. Maybe it is just since I have no interest in sports, but I have serious doubts that a single sports game, however significant, would alter EV results to this degree. The fact of the matter is upballot patterns are catching up to JBE. He could still win, but he won't win in this round and if he wins in the runoff, it will only be by 2-4.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #30 on: October 05, 2019, 02:23:32 PM »

Obviously you never want to see the EV going so poorly but it’s not particularly predictive. It just means that the R base is more enthused to vote early, but that probably means fewer ED voters for Rs.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #31 on: October 05, 2019, 02:31:55 PM »

Interesting.  The very extensive use of early voting this year is probably driven by the big LSU football game on election day, which will presumably drive down ED turnout.  My understanding is that college football viewership skews quite R vs. the general population, so I am not surprised they are so overrepresented in early voting this year.  I would be very careful about comparing to past EV turnout because of this dynamic.

Didn't think about that, but that's a good point.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #32 on: October 05, 2019, 02:40:46 PM »

Obviously you never want to see the EV going so poorly but it’s not particularly predictive. It just means that the R base is more enthused to vote early, but that probably means fewer ED voters for Rs.

The thing is that the early voting electorate is not that different from the Election Day electorate.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #33 on: October 05, 2019, 06:09:20 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2019, 06:13:40 PM by Bernie Cultists Don't Understand Polling »

At this point, following red state elections is like hate watching a TV show for me, I have no emotional investment and just laugh instead of cry.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #34 on: October 06, 2019, 03:18:41 AM »

Every cycle in most states see higher EV turnout than the last, because more people are choosing to vote early. It's increasingly well-known and easy to do.

Of course an early electorate is going to more closely resemble the overall electorate over time when more and more people are choosing to vote early rather than on ED. This isn't 2008 anymore; most people are now choosing to vote early. If there's insane enthusiasm on one side or another, then you might be able to (at least temporarily) get a massive departure from the final figures in EV, but otherwise, the gap between ED & EV support for each party is going to continue to narrow and narrow. Hell, we've even see examples across the country recently (especially in '18) where the EV is more GOP than the ED vote.

There's just no way (especially in a state like LA) where you can see the raw vote triple compared to 4 years prior and expect Democrats to be doing as good or better in that voter pool - but it also means the GOP cannot do as good or better among Election Day voters. A large part of this (besides the death of Dixiecrats etc) is simply voters changing when they vote rather than how they vote.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #35 on: October 06, 2019, 11:53:17 AM »

Obviously you never want to see the EV going so poorly but it’s not particularly predictive. It just means that the R base is more enthused to vote early, but that probably means fewer ED voters for Rs.

The thing is that the early voting electorate is not that different from the Election Day electorate.

Maybe my post wasn’t super clear

I’m saying that just because more Rs are voting early does not mean that Rs are necessarily gaining voters. They’re just gaining more early voters potentially or even probably at the expense of Election Day voters. It’s the same thing that happened with Democrats in Florida in 2016. The people who vote change how they vote less than they change when they vote.

Of course these numbers are still good news for Rs, don’t get me wrong. But I don’t think they’re as crushing as they might seem.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #36 on: October 09, 2019, 02:38:39 PM »

There is some credence to the LSU game theory as the early vote increase was much higher in and around Baton Rouge than elsewhere is the state.
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Matty
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« Reply #37 on: October 09, 2019, 02:53:36 PM »

There is some credence to the LSU game theory as the early vote increase was much higher in and around Baton Rouge than elsewhere is the state.


True, but another factor is that st George is on the ballot
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #38 on: October 09, 2019, 03:08:16 PM »

There is some credence to the LSU game theory as the early vote increase was much higher in and around Baton Rouge than elsewhere is the state.


True, but another factor is that st George is on the ballot

Not in Ascension
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Matty
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« Reply #39 on: October 09, 2019, 03:20:30 PM »

There is some credence to the LSU game theory as the early vote increase was much higher in and around Baton Rouge than elsewhere is the state.


True, but another factor is that st George is on the ballot

Not in Ascension

Do you think st George will pass?
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #40 on: October 09, 2019, 03:34:48 PM »

There is some credence to the LSU game theory as the early vote increase was much higher in and around Baton Rouge than elsewhere is the state.


True, but another factor is that st George is on the ballot

Not in Ascension

Do you think st George will pass?

My wife used to have family in BR (including her MawMaw) and we'd go up there quite frequently, but they've all passed on or moved, and I keep up with nothing like that.
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Politician
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« Reply #41 on: October 10, 2019, 04:13:18 PM »

This seems interesting:



Suggests potential Dem surge on Election Day?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #42 on: October 13, 2019, 08:38:17 AM »

It seems overall concern was warranted. Also seems like black turnout was lower than it should've been.
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