Race-Based House Districts

[Former President tack50]

Honestly while it is a long way off I wonder if any of the minoritt districts will vote R or at least be competitive

[Antonio the Sixth]

Honestly while it is a long way off I wonder if any of the minoritt districts will vote R or at least be competitive

There will definitely be a few R-leaning Hispanic districts in Southern Florida. Not sure about others though. I'll probably need everybody's help when we get to non-White, non-Black districts.

[Roll Roons]

Honestly while it is a long way off I wonder if any of the minoritt districts will vote R or at least be competitive

Even now, there are a couple Hispanic-majority districts in Texas (23rd and 27th) have Republican congressmen. That could happen here as well.

This is a really interesting timeline, keep it up!

[Idaho Conservative]

can you do California?

[bagelman]

I went ahead and did an unofficial Arkansas. I might do various other maps, but I don't want to post them without consent from the thread master.

Edit: I let myself go and done a bunch of others, but the previous caveat still applies.

[bagelman]

Honestly while it is a long way off I wonder if any of the minoritt districts will vote R or at least be competitive

There will definitely be a few R-leaning Hispanic districts in Southern Florida. Not sure about others though. I'll probably need everybody's help when we get to non-White, non-Black districts.

Are you continuing with this series anytime soon?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've been considering what to do now that the county-level White vote map is down. I have all the White districts drawn up already, but I can't make any reliable estimate of their PVI without that data. Of course I can still give a subjective rating, but that's a lot less interesting. Still, you're right, let's keep this going.


Arkansas



AR-1: The most urban and therefore least Republican of the three districts, but that's not saying much. I'd guess Republicans typically win around 70% of the vote there. Safe R.

AR-2: This district encompasses the heavily Black areas in the East of the state, but obviously the White people there are deeply Republican. Probably over 70% Republican majorities are commonplace. Safe R.

AR-3: Probably the most Republican of the three districts. Wouldn't be surprised if they routinely get over 3/4 of the vote. Safe R.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If I were to send you an excel chart with the estimated raw number of whites voting for Trump, Clinton, and Other by county, would that be enough to do 2016 estimates?

I could yeah, but that would be a LOT of work (at least for districts with lots of counties like AR-2 here) and I'm not sure I'm up for it right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Utah



UT-1: As you can see from the map, this district basically covers Salt Lake County. This makes it one of the first competitive districts we've seen in a long time, with Democrats having a real shot at winning it. Among all voters, it was a tie in 2008, a Romney blowout in 2012, and a 9-10 points Clinton win in 2016. Since the district is only 74% White, though, the real numbers are somewhat more Republican friendly. Reagente has the numbers for 2016, so he can let us know, but my guess would be that Clinton still narrowly won whites here. This implies that the district is significantly more Democratic than even UT-4, which was won by a Democrat in 2012 and 2018. Thus, I'm going to assume the same electoral history here: Matheson 13-15, Love 15-19, McAdams 19-present. Lean R overall.

UT-2: Not much of a chance for Democrats in this district that encompasses the Northern edge of the State. McCain probably broke 70% here, and Romney 80%. T***p didn't pull off these scores, probably hovering around 55%, but there's a good chance that McMullin, rather than Clinton, came in second. Safe R.

UT-3: Finally, the district that covers most of Utah, including the famed conservative bastion of Provo, is even more safely Republican than the other two. Even T***p probably came close to 60% here. Safe R.

[Former President tack50]

Not sure exactly where it was, but Adam Griffin had a similar project to that of regaente of the White and non-white vote by county.

However it seems to be broken, I imagine for the same reason as reagente's project? (might even be the same project in fact)

https://www.whitdem.org/2016WhiteVote.html

[Idaho Conservative]

https://external-preview.redd.it/ki6x8MQ5QbizDSeR67joJZnPdOo16KvgzOWYY3dHI60.png?auto=webp&s=20a8247ffc581486541c8302ed2e2eae88b105d4
white vote by county

[Antonio the Sixth]

Kansas



KS-1: A reasonably competitive district, thanks to the Dem-trending Kansas City area. Obama in 08 and Hillary in 16 both won the overall vote, though they almost certainly lost the White vote (my guess would be by 5-7 points each). This is normally a Republican district, but I think Sharice Davids would be favored to win in 2018 (albeit more narrowly than she did IRL). Likely R.

KS-2: Republicans should normally get over 60% of the vote in this Wichita-based district. While T***p underperformed somewhat, it's not enough to make this district competitive even in 2018. Safe R.

KS-3: A fortiori, this is obviously Titanium R country. Safe R.

https://external-preview.redd.it/ki6x8MQ5QbizDSeR67joJZnPdOo16KvgzOWYY3dHI60.png?auto=webp&s=20a8247ffc581486541c8302ed2e2eae88b105d4
white vote by county

Thanks! I'll use this as a rough guide.

Do you know the source? Is it the same as Reagente's data?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Connecticut



CT-1: Democrats are well-positioned here in this district stretching from the wealthy Gold Coast NYC suburbs to the core of the New Haven area, especially with the former's recent leftward trend. The large nonwhite share means that White voters there are more evenly split than the topline would suggest, however. Obama's margin probably hovered around 10 points here in 2012, and Hillary's was either the same or slightly lower. Likely D.

CT-2: By contrast, a White district anchored in Litchfield county will inevitably favor the GOP. Obama might have carried it in '08 (just barely if so), but he definitely lost it in '12, when Romney was just the perfect candidate for the region, and Hillary lost it by 5 points if not more. It's possible that a Democrat held the seat until 2014, owing to incumbency, but it definitely flipped that year and I'm not even sure it flipped back in 2018. Likely R.

CT-3: Eastern CT has had the most brutal Republican trend in the state, and it has probably thrown what was otherwise a reliably Democratic district into contention. Obama won by double digits here in 2008, and still by 5 points or so in 2012. In 2016 though, it was probably very close. Joe Courtney would probably still be reelected fairly easily as long as he runs, though. Tossup.

CT-4: The Hartford-based seat is easily the most Democratic in the state. Obama won there by about 20 points in 2008, and still probably 15 or so in 2012. Hillary underperformed in comparison, but she's probably still somewhere in the double digits, and Republicans wouldn't have much of a bench to field here. Safe D.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nice project you have here, Antonio! I decided to offer up myself to help you.

Michigan whites
https://davesredistricting.org/join/a85f01eb-200b-4c10-8e02-f38fd2e97243

Michigan blacks
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6e4a6219-1da3-4dfd-b7f5-a758914f16e4

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

South Carolina whites
https://davesredistricting.org/join/38690fb6-af0d-4512-893b-d5a16dc2815d

South Carolina blacks
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bea290c9-03f1-42a5-bcb8-4280f764c268

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ohio whites
https://davesredistricting.org/join/63fe8097-317c-4aea-aa98-ef6dfcbf6f61

Ohio blacks
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6af23880-4810-44fd-b272-74adcc50240c

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

California blacks
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6b326879-dcdf-4f01-9698-25ea06f45a3e

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

California asians
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bcb9e546-2084-4f5f-a85b-f367418609cf

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Georgia blacks
https://davesredistricting.org/join/42a6e7fb-380c-4c5b-822e-54fed236a36f

Georgia whites
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bac6b738-72db-469f-a672-5e00bbbaac33

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oregon whites
https://davesredistricting.org/join/58171dc8-08f9-494b-b5d2-8410517e3f9f

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New York Asians
https://davesredistricting.org/join/f02a525d-6e02-41be-b7b3-d3b0f26aeef6

[bagelman]

All of the links posted by Timmy or me should be considered unofficial, but if Timmy's just going to linkdump to his maps, I may as well do the same, and do so in just one post. I made all of these back during the ides of March but didn't want to actually post them because this isn't my thread.

Whites:

AR alternate version without a Little Rock dedicated district.

LA

Blacks:

CA

FL

GA

LA

MI

NC

NJ/DE DE is all in the 2nd district

NY

OH

PA

SC

TX

VA (probably could be done better)

Hispanics:

CO/UT UT is all in the 2nd district

GA/AL/SC/TN All of AL and SC is in the first district, all of SC is in the 2nd.

IL

NJ

NY

Asians:

NY

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I made all of these back during the ides of March but didn't want to actually post them because this isn't my thread.

brb, crowning myself King.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, I'm glad this thread is generating so much interest all of a sudden, and I don't mind you posting your own maps in this thread, but as far as I'm concerned, I've already drawn all the districts and I'm not really interested in changing them unless a specific issue with my own maps is brought to my attention. What's left for me, and the reason this thread is going fairly slowly, is making guesses about their politics. So tbh I'd rather get input on that than on the maps themselves.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well, I'm glad this thread is generating so much interest all of a sudden, and I don't mind you posting your own maps in this thread, but as far as I'm concerned, I've already drawn all the districts and I'm not really interested in changing them unless a specific issue with my own maps is brought to my attention. What's left for me, and the reason this thread is going fairly slowly, is making guesses about their politics. So tbh I'd rather get input on that than on the maps themselves.

You already drew all of them? Ah, good.
I could draw them all on a map for you...