The 100 States of America

[Prez_zf]

Challenge accepted. I'll get to drawing when the other Western ones are done.

Here we go!


Alamo

As suggested here a while back, let's name this central Texan state, including its historical capital Austin as well as San Antonio, after the fort that must not be forgotten. With two large and historically progressive (unlike Dallas and Houston which used to be heavily Republican) cities, a diverse ethnic makeup, and less Titanium R rural turf, this is a state Democrats have always had a shot in. Alamo stayed loyal to Dems throughout the 60s and went for Carter in 1976, then flipped to Reagan four years later and stayed Republican throughout the 1980s. In 1992 Clinton narrowly carried it (actually even more narrowly than he carried TX, shockingly), but Dole flipped it in 1996, and it voted for Bush by double-digit margins. Trends started catching up in 2008, when Obama came within half a percentage point of carrying the state, but it was Hillary who finally flipped it in 2016, making Alamo into the elusive Romney-Clinton state. Biden then expanded her 3-point win into a 9-point one, putting the state squarely into the Lean D column and perhaps even approaching Likely D. This actually puts Alamo in a similar place as OTL Virginia (or King, if you want to stay within this scenario), although its trend being more recent means there's more likely to be a lag downballot.

Capital: Let's keep it at Austin, though San Antonio would work just as well.

House Seats (1963) 6
House Seats (2013) 11 (+2 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010) 51% White, 37% Hispanic

PVI 2008: R+8
PVI 2012: R+10
PVI 2016: D+1
PVI 2020: D+5

Congressional Representation: AM elected its Senators in 2018 and 2022. O'Rourke won there by a whopping 12 points in 2018, and while he wouldn't be a candidate in this scenario, the seat would still seem ripe for the picking. So that's at least one seat in the Dem column. The other seat is where things get interesting. Hillary did carry the state in 2016, and that year is famous because all states voted the same way for Senate and President. If AM were to follow the pattern, there would be a Dem incumbent in 2022 who'd probably be favored for reelection. That said, we should probably not make too much of the pattern, and the right Republican should have been counted as the favorite in a state that had voted for the party since 1996. So I'm gonna count one seat as Democratic and the other as a tossup. As for the House, Democrats have probably been able to pick up a lot of seats in redistricting, and at this point I could easily see them holding 9 of its 13 seats. The rural areas outside of Austin and San Antonio would provide a solid floor for the GOP, but everything else if fertile ground for Dems.

Local Government: Abbott won the state by a hair in 2018 (when facing a rather perfunctory challenge from Lupe Valdez, and while Dan Patrick lost the state by 8 points and Ken Paxton by 10 at the same time) but lost it by 6 points to O'Rourke in 2022. It seems clear which way the wind is blowing here, and while the right Republican might have managed to hold the state, the money should be on Dems being favored to hold the governorship. Similarly, the trends are strong enough that it's hard to see Democrats not flipping at least one house of the state legislature, and unlike in DS and GV they'd almost certainly be able to hold it in 2020. This means fair maps are guaranteed for this decade, and are certain to only entrench Democratic power further.


Rio Grande

Here we come to perhaps one of the most unique states in this fictional version of the nation. With over three quarters of the voting age population in 2010 being Hispanic/Latino, Rio Grande's political culture would be unlike any other state's, and would likely baffle, outrage or fascinate unfamiliar onlookers. It is interesting to see how RG's political class would handle its large border with Mexico, and how the local population's conflicted feelings on recent immigrants would translate policy-wise. These questions are for people more versed in the local culture than myself to answer. All I can do here is crunch some numbers, and what they say is pretty clear: RG has consistently been the most Democratic part of the state, sticking with Democrats through thick and thin. It gave over two thirds of its vote to favorite son LBJ, and still an absolute majority to HHH, stuck with Carter in 1980 and with Dukakis in 1988. There were only three times its support wavered: the 1972 and 1984 GOPslides, unsurprisingly, but much more impressively 2004, when Dubya managed to prevail over Kerry by just 0.5 points. This impressive win would no doubt have added to the luster of Bush's victory, and definitely crowned him as the ultimate Texas Republican. So let's zoom in to see how he did it:



As expected, Kerry still managed to win the heavily Hispanic Southern tip of the state as well as the key city of El Paso on the far West, but his margins there were anemic even compared to Gore four years earlier (who had won the state by 8 points). Bush managed to rack up the margin in the Whiter, more rural and inland parts of the state, as well as the Northeastern Gulf Coast around Corpus Christi, but also impressively flipped Cameron County (home of Brownsville). This is no doubt a performance modern Republicans will seek to repeat.

They might get a chance to do so in the coming years. After trending rapidly to the Democrats throughout the Obama years and becoming nearly Safe D, RG took a sharp turn to the right in 2020, with Biden winning it by a shockingly anemic 10 points. Much has been made of Biden's weakness among Hispanics, but its implications would be drawn in particularly sharp relief here, and it remains to be seen how far these trends can go. If the state were to be close this year, we might be seeing a radical shift in local politics.

Capital: Laredo seems like the best compromise between centrality and population.

House Seats (1963) 6
House Seats (2013) 8

VAP Demographics (2010) 77% Hispanic, 19% White

PVI 2008: D+13
PVI 2012: D+18
PVI 2016: D+22
PVI 2020: D+6

Congressional Representation: RG's last Senate elections were in 2020 and 2022, both of which might have spelled danger for Democrats. In 2020, Biden's victory, however anemic, would probably have propelled Dems to victory if they had an incumbent or the seat was open (on the off chance a Republican won there in 2014, they might well have snuck by). In 2022, this could have been a golden opportunity for a GOP pickup, but given that the GOP squandered all its golden opportunities that year I wouldn't make too much of it. Overall, between RG and AM I expect Dems to hold 3 of their 4 collective seats, but it's a tossup whether the one GOP Senator is from one or the other. For the House, meanwhile, Democrats have probably gone down from holding 6 or 7 seats back in 2018 to being reduced to 5 or even 4 (though given downballot lag, 5 is more likely).

Local Government: O'Rourke won the state in 2022, but only by a meager 6 points. Given that the state almost certainly has a Democratic incumbent, I would expect them to do better than that barring a Sisolak-tier f**kup. The state legislature too has probably remained in Dem hands (Democrats hold 14 out of maybe 19 or 20 seats in the Texas House), so for now Dems are probably in the clear. We'll see what the future holds though...


Llanos

We end, a bit anticlimactically, with a state whose politics are rather easy to summarize. Llanos, named after the Spanish name for the plains that characterize its geography, is pretty much as Titanium R as it gets. Since 1996, it has consistently been the most Republican state in the country, putting even the likes of Wyoming and nearby Texas to shame. Recent Republican candidates have polled in the high 70s (McCain fell just slightly below at 74.6%) while Democrats have been stuck in the low 20s. You have to go back to 1996 to even find a Democrat winning a single county in it (though if you want to extend it to gubernatorial elections, Bill White randomly won Foard County in 2010). What puts LN over TX as far as Republican partisanship goes is the fact that it lacks the ancestral Democratic tradition found further East: while LBJ himself managed to crack 60% there in 1964, he wasn't able to carry the state for JFK as a running mate or for HHH as the incumbent president. There was only one other time when a Democratic presidential candidate managed to prevail here, and that was 1976. Carter's strength in the Southern Plains was made apparent with his near-win in Oklahoma, but even more impressive was his performance on the other side of the border. Let's take a look:



Looking just at the map, you'd be forgiven for thinking Carter won in a blowout, but fact, his winning margin was just 0.14 points, making LN the closest state that year. Once again, then, we are transported back to a time where Republicans found their strength in urban areas, and Democrats in the open countryside. LN's major cities (such as they are) all show up in blue on this map, even when they're surrounded by red: Lubbock, Amarillo, Abilene, Midland, Odessa and San Angelo all seem to have voted for Ford by solid to overwhelming margins. Meanwhile, the only somewhat populous area Carter seems to have won is Wichita, by just 7 points. On the other hand, his performance in the state's vast rural expanse was nothing short of remarkable, especially in the Eastern and Central parts of the state. Ford's rural strength seems to have been concentrated in the far North (probably the most Plains-like in political culture) and South of the state. Suffice to say, we are unlikely to see a map like this again: even if lightning were to strike and Dems somehow won LN, their areas of strength would probably look more like Ford's than Carter's.

Capital: Lubbock

House Seats (1963) 8
House Seats (2013) 6

VAP Demographics (2010) 68% White, 25% Hispanic

PVI 2008: R+57
PVI 2012: R+61
PVI 2016: R+59
PVI 2020: R+60

Congressional Representation: Nothing to see here. 2 Republican Senators an 6 Republican representatives. I don't think it's possible to draw a Dem-leaning or even swingy district here even with extreme gerrymandering (another challenge for Tim if he's interested).

Local Government: There isn't a single Dem-held state legislative seat in this area. It's possible there might be a few given a larger state legislature, but it's also not impossible to see a Hawaii Senate style situation where at least the upper house is all-Republican. In a context like this, it's quite likely you would see heavy factional splits within the local GOP, with perhaps a business wing and a MAGA wing jockeying for control of local affairs.

Therapist: Battleground Texas Panhandle isn't real, it can't hurt you.
Battleground Texan Panhandle ^

[Antonio the Sixth]

To wrap up on Texas, here's the PVI evolution over time:


As you can see, RG was consistently the more Democratic state throughout the period (although if trends continue this might change soon). Until the 1990s, TX and AM competed for second, though since 2000 we saw TX trend massively to the right while AM started zooming rapidly to the left from 2004 onwards. The two city-states always stayed Republican-leaning throughout the period, albeit to varying extent, but have trended sharply to the left since 2016 especially. Meanwhile, LN was always pretty Republican-leaning (except in 1964) but slipped into Titanium R territory in the 1990s and only kept digging from there. A classic tale of urban-rural divergence, I guess.

And here's a complete breakdown of the 2020 results. I considered using the 2018 Senate race instead, but there was very little difference in it outside of RG, and I figured it'd be better to use the more recent and higher-turnout election:


As noted, Biden didn't win a single county in TX and LN, and got accordingly blown out in both. His (very) relative areas of strength were in the couple mid-sized urban centers of each state, but even in these areas he was lucky to crack 30%. He won two counties each in DS and GV, but those are their respective urban cores, and even the suburban rings around them aren't nearly as Republican as they once were, so that was just enough for narrow victories. The turnaround from just a few decades ago is really remarkable. In AM meanwhile, Biden consolidated Obama and Hillary's wins in Travis and Bexar by winning two more counties along the central Austin-San Antonio corridor that forms the core of the state (and generally improved on Hillary's performance in and around it). And finally, we have RG, where Biden's performance was remarkably weak. He actually won fewer counties than Kerry, as seen in the previous map, but was spared his fate thanks to stronger performances around major cities (such as winning Cameron County, or winning El Paso by a 2-1 margin).


So that's a wrap for the South. Next we're moving up to the Midwest!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My starting assumptions for the 2010s map I'm doing:
Texas: total R control
Dallas: total R control turning into split control by 2018 (which effectively means an R quasi-dummymander I guess; 2022 should see a 2003-style court map, overturned by a Dem trifecta which does a gerrymander)
Galveston: total R control with slim R control by 2018 (effectively a moderate R gerrymander aimed at locking in seats in the 2010s)
Alamo: total R control turning into D control by 2020 (so effectively R dummymander)
Rio Grande: total D control with R vote sink drawn to keep Rs from winning anything else (probably mostly successfully but not completely)
Llanos: obviously this is the best turf imaginable for a D trifecta to form!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ok so I have made a map in DRA. Before posting, I'll count the number of McCain 08 (if it existed at the time), Abbott 14, Trump 16, Cruz 18, Trump 20, and Abbott 22 districts in each state.
Texas: 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7 (7)
Dallas: 13, 13, 10, 8, 8, 9 (16)
Galveston: 9, 9, 8, 7, 7, 8 (15)
Alamo: 8, 8, 8, 5, 5, 5 (11)
Rio Grande: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (8)
Llanos: 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6 (6)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5973a5f1-95f0-4853-ad24-3a5bb54e442b
Here's the completed map
All the distinct sections of IRL TX are done in the same DRA map.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5973a5f1-95f0-4853-ad24-3a5bb54e442b
Here's the completed map
All the distinct sections of IRL TX are done in the same DRA map.

Impressive work!! So PVI-wise we get:
- TX at 7R in 2008, no change by 2020
- DS at 3D-13R in 2008, becoming 6D-3S-7R by 2020 (wow!)
- GV at 5D-1S-9R in 2008, becoming 7D-1S-7R by 2020
- AM at 3D-1S-7R in 2008, becoming 3D-3S-5R by 2020 (not as much change, interesting)
- RG at 7D-1R, becoming 6D-1S-1R by 2020
- LN stays at 6R obviously

So Republicans in DS and GV made what looked like effective gerrymanders back in 2010 but were completely swamped by the trends, and even with new gerrymanders in 2020 they can only hope to preserve the seats they kept. In AM it looks like the Republican gerrymander is still working to some extent, so I think the 2020 redistricting should see Dems gain quite a few seats. In RG it will be interesting if Dems can shore up the areas they're losing ground in, or if they'll just accept a swingy district to shore up their other incumbents.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5973a5f1-95f0-4853-ad24-3a5bb54e442b
Here's the completed map
All the distinct sections of IRL TX are done in the same DRA map.

Impressive work!! So PVI-wise we get:
- TX at 7R in 2008, no change by 2020
- DS at 3D-13R in 2008, becoming 6D-3S-7R by 2020 (wow!)
- GV at 5D-1S-9R in 2008, becoming 7D-1S-7R by 2020
- AM at 3D-1S-7R in 2008, becoming 3D-3S-5R by 2020 (not as much change, interesting)
- RG at 7D-1R, becoming 6D-1S-1R by 2020
- LN stays at 6R obviously

So Republicans in DS and GV made what looked like effective gerrymanders back in 2010 but were completely swamped by the trends, and even with new gerrymanders in 2020 they can only hope to preserve the seats they kept. In AM it looks like the Republican gerrymander is still working to some extent, so I think the 2020 redistricting should see Dems gain quite a few seats. In RG it will be interesting if Dems can shore up the areas they're losing ground in, or if they'll just accept a swingy district to shore up their other incumbents.

Galveston Rs weathered things rather well, with their line drawing saving seats like the Waller County seat. Rs are most screwed in Alamo where Ds likely gerrymander Rs into only 2 (at most 3) seats and completely shatter the cracking of Austin, replacing it with redrawn lines that split Austin up in ways that have it outvote the rurals. Dallas should be better for them because Ds have less ability to just gerrymander everything completely awfully for them since a lot of Dem votes are locked up in Dem VRA seats and Rs still have lots of votes to pull from places like NW Tarrant that can only be drowned out with difficulty. I don't see Rio Grande Dems changing much because it's better to minimize R safe seats as much as possible to the extent it doesn't hugely imperil their own incumbents. They probably go least change to try to maximize the value of incumbency for their sitting members (though the D congressional vote is clearly becoming less efficient over time). As for Llano and Texas, they are too Republican for Ds to be relevant in the districting process at all, and intra-party divisions will be more important (like cattle ranching vs cotton farming vs oil drilling for example).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Erie

Let us now begin our our Midwest with the state, carved out of IRL Ohio, which borders Lake Erie and takes its name from it. You might remember Erie from my previous Alternate States project, but this version is smaller and more compact (not stretching as far east as Toledo or as far south as Canton or Youngstown), and correspondingly is even more Democratic. In fact, over the surveyed period, it has a near-spotless Democratic record, having only voted for the Republican candidate in 1972 and 1984 (and in the latter case by just 600 votes). Interestingly, while it's been loyally Democratic, it was never overwhelmingly so: its PVI peaked near D+20 in 2004, but it was usually somewhere between D+10 and D+15. Something has been happening in the last two election cycles, though, with the state moving from Likely D in 2012 to nearly swing state status in 2020. It seems like the Republican trend in white working class areas, combined with lower Black turnout, is increasingly threatening Democratic hegemony in the state. Whereas Obama won most countries in the state, Biden only won Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Summit (Akron) in 2020. It remains to be seen if these trends will continue, and given the downballot lag Dems are probably safe for now, but I'd certainly expect some nervousness in the local leadership.

Capital: It's gotta be Cleveland.

House Seats (1963): 13
House Seats (2013): 8 (-1 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 78% White, 16% Black

PVI 2008: D+14
PVI 2012: D+17
PVI 2016: D+9
PVI 2020: D+5

Congressional Representation: ER's Senators were last elected in 2020 and 2022. The only Republican to win a Senate race in recent memory was Rob Portman in 2016, but he was an incumbent, and it's doubtful that he would have had an easy race against a well-organized state Democratic party. Given Tim Ryan won by 12 points, I'm going to assume the state still has two Dem Senators. As for the House, I'd expect at least a light Dem gerrymander. In the current state of things, they'd have to concede at least 2 seats (possibly 3 - Timmy might try to find out) to the GOP, but that's a fair price to pay to safeguard the other 5-6 (or 4-5 post-resdistricting).

Local Government: A Republican winning a governor's race is possible at this point, but it would still be a long shot. DeWine did it as a popular incumbent in 2022, but an open seat would be a very different matter. As for the State Legislature, Dems currently seem to hold a bare majority of State House seats (13 out of 24 or 25), but that's under a pretty obvious GOP gerrymander. A reasonable Dem gerrymander should be enough to guarantee working Democratic majorities for the time being.


Ohio

The state that keeps the Ohio name is understandably the one bordered by the Ohio River for most of its length. The bulk of this state is what we commonly refer to as "Appalachian Ohio", a largely rural and impoverished region - but for the sake of having a sufficient population, I had to stretch it further North to include major (post)industrial cities such as Canton and Youngstown. Thus, this state ends up an interesting mix of urban and rural populism. This unique balance has made of Ohio a pretty consistent swing state for most of its history, its PVI usually ranging between D+7 and R+5. Swing state doesn't always mean bellwether, as for example it voted for Nixon in 1960 but HHH in 1968 (showcasing the latter's superior Rust Belt appeal). Still, from 1972 to 2008 OH did a pretty good job of picking the EC winner in every election. Throughout the Obama and Bush years, it would have been one of the most hotly contested states in the country, to the point that it's impossible to tell who would have won given heavy campaigning on both sides. The Republican candidate came out ahead in 2000, 2004 and 2012 by 0.53, 0.18 and 0.44 points, respectively, while in 2008 Obama prevailed by a whole 2 percentage points. But let's look at 2012, the last in this string of razor-thin Republican wins:



Unsurprisingly, the contrast between the urban, industrial North and the rural South appears clearly. Obama ran up the score in Trumbull and Mahoning County, and won Stark as well (the three most populous in the state). Romney, meanwhile, won everything else except for Athens with its large college population. However, crucially, he didn't completely dominate the area, only reaching 60% in a handful of county. There's even a string of fairly rural counties in the far South of the state that almost voted for Obama, an impressive performance for a Democrat in centuries. Just 5000 more votes or so, and Obama would have prevailed in the state as a whole.

Of course, this is all ancient history in the modern political era. No state symbolizes Muh Trends better (and more literally) than Ohio, who trended Republican by a full 24 points in 2016. You'd have to go back to 1984 to find a stronger year-on-year Republican trend (though you had a stronger Democratic one with Hawaii in 2008). Even more shocking is the fact that the trend doesn't seem to be over, with 2020 seeing a further 7-point shift to the right. Overnight, OH went from being a swing state to Titanium R territory, putting even places like Iowa to shame. Biden won just over a third of the vote there in 2020.

Capital: I know Athens was suggested, but a lefty college town is just not the right cultural fit for this quintessentially #populist state. I'm going to go with Zanesville instead.

House Seats (1963): 9
House Seats (2013): 6 (-1 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 92% White

PVI 2008: R+5
PVI 2012: R+4
PVI 2016: R+29
PVI 2020: R+35

Congressional Representation: Ohio keeps its original Senate seats, so 2018 and 2022 were the last cycles they were up in. Barring a Jon Tester tier Dem incumbent, though, it's hard to see it making a difference in the outcome. Even Sherrod Brown lost by 6 points in 2018, so two Republican seats are pretty much a guarantee. 6 Republican seats in the House (5 after redistricting) are also pretty much a guarantee: all the GOP would have to do is make sure Athens is drowned in a sea of Titanium R rural areas.

Local Government: Cordray lost the state by 17 points in 2018, so it's very hard to see a Dem win the governorship either (if that happened it would be a LA 2015 or KY 2019 tier event, and even then those were off-year elections). As for the state legislature, we could easily see a split comparable to West Virginia.

[Gass3268]

Congressional Representation: ER's Senators were last elected in 2020 and 2022. The only Republican to win a Senate race in recent memory was Rob Portman in 2016, but he was an incumbent, and it's doubtful that he would have had an easy race against a well-organized state Democratic party. Given Tim Ryan won by 12 points, I'm going to assume the state still has two Dem Senators. As for the House, I'd expect at least a light Dem gerrymander. In the current state of things, they'd have to concede at least 2 seats (possibly 3 - Timmy might try to find out) to the GOP, but that's a fair price to pay to safeguard the other 5-6 (or 4-5 post-resdistricting).

Playing around here and I think the 5-2 vs 4-3 split comes down to whether or not there needs to be two Black VRA districts. If it is determined that you only need 1, I think 5-2 is easy. If you need two, it gets harder.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Congressional Representation: ER's Senators were last elected in 2020 and 2022. The only Republican to win a Senate race in recent memory was Rob Portman in 2016, but he was an incumbent, and it's doubtful that he would have had an easy race against a well-organized state Democratic party. Given Tim Ryan won by 12 points, I'm going to assume the state still has two Dem Senators. As for the House, I'd expect at least a light Dem gerrymander. In the current state of things, they'd have to concede at least 2 seats (possibly 3 - Timmy might try to find out) to the GOP, but that's a fair price to pay to safeguard the other 5-6 (or 4-5 post-resdistricting).

Playing around here and I think the 5-2 vs 4-3 split comes down to whether or not there needs to be two Black VRA districts. If it is determined that you only need 1, I think 5-2 is easy. If you need two, it gets harder.

Based on Erie's demographics it's gotta be no more than one. Two would be a significant OVERrepresentation of the Black population.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hamilton

Continuing along the former state's Southern border, we find the state centered on the Cincinnati and Dayton urban areas. Naming this state after the Federalist titan of early post-independence politics made sense, as it's the name of its most populous county as well as seeming to fit the vibe quite well. Hamilton is the epitome of Midwestern conservatism, boasting an unbroken Republican voting streak since 1968 and a Republican PVI for all the period I have data for (and above R+10 since 1984). As such, there's not very much to say about HM's politics. Even the trends that swept over the rest of the state so dramatically seem to have had very little effect on it: it trended to the right by a mere two points in 2016 and then retraced about a third of that shift in 2020. Cincinnati itself has been trending increasingly Democratic, but Dayton's evolution has been more ambiguous, and the exurban counties around those urban center have if gotten markedly more Republican. Thus, the end result remains a reliable (though not overwhelming) Republican stronghold.

Capital: Dayton seems right.

House Seats (1963): 10
House Seats (2013): 7

VAP Demographics (2010): 82% White, 13% Black

PVI 2008: R+17
PVI 2012: R+15
PVI 2016: R+17
PVI 2020: R+17

Congressional Representation: Sherrod Brown lost HM by 7 points in his 2006 landslide, so it's pretty clear Democrats don't have a shot in a Senate election around here. As for the House, one urban Cincinnati district is inevitable (it might have to be a Black opportunity district as well given VRA constraints). A fair map would probably have another Dem-leaning seat in Hamilton County, and perhaps another one around Dayton, but a GOP gerrymander could probably ensure 6 solidly Republican seats.

Local Government: Again, I don't see much of an opening for a Democrat to win a gubernatorial race here. State legislature wise, Dems seem to be holding about 30% of the seats in the State House seats in the area, so Republicans might have slight veto-proof supermajorities (not that it would matter).


Columbia

This state doesn't have an obvious geographic feature to name it from, so I figured it would be fun to pick the name Columbia, both in reference to its largest city but also as a tribute to the name's cultural significance in early American history. Geographically, this state is a bit of an odd beast, as due to population balance concerns it's left encompassing very disparate areas. To the South, you have the large and growing Columbus metro area, which has trended significantly to the left in recent decades. To the North, you have the old working-class stronghold of Toledo, still overwhelmingly Democratic but undergoing trends comparable to those in nearby Erie. Finally, to the East, we have some of the most ancestrally Republican turf in all the Midwest. Adding it all up, the rural and suburban Republican areas are usually enough to overwhelm Columbus and Toledo, resulting in a state that can usually be relied to vote Republican. Until 2008, the only Democrat who won it was LBJ in 1964. However, trends in the 90s and 00s started to favor Democrats, allowing Clinton to come within a point of Dole there in 1996, and finally allowing Obama to carry the state by 2 points in 2008, and even more impressively to prevail again in the hard-fought 2012 election. Let's look at how that played out:



Like with OH last time, we have a pretty obvious case of a state being a lot closer than land area would suggest - this time allowing Obama to actually prevail on the back of just 5 countries: of course the two key ones were Franklin (Columbus) and Lucas (Toledo), which he won 60% and 65% of the vote in respectively and racked up a 200k vote lead (he won the state by 20K). However, it's also notable that he managed to win a few more counties on the Erie shore as well, and generally kept Romney under 60% in most of the Republican parts of the state (although she still cleared up in Columbus' Northern suburbs as well as in the Eastern part of the state). As this might well have been one of the swing states that decided the election, it would have seen intense campaigning on both sides, and Obama's 1.2-point victory would have sealed the fate of the election.

So, in the mid 2010s, it seemed CL was destined to become a prime swing state. Then, 2016 happened, undoing a decade's worth of trends. Democrats' gains around Columbus were easily swamped by the rest of the state's strong Republican swing, and 2020 only continued on the same trajectory. Until and unless the Columbus area starts voting more like the Chicago one, or trends in the Northern part of the state can be at least partially reversed, Democrats will have a hard time winning statewide.

Capital: Columbus, duh.

House Seats (1963): 11
House Seats (2013): 9

VAP Demographics (2010): 83% White, 10% Black

PVI 2008: R+5
PVI 2012: R+3
PVI 2016: R+10
PVI 2020: R+11

Congressional Representation: CL's Senate elections last took place in 2018 and 2022. Sherrod Brown actually won by 8 points there in 2018, higher than his statewide margin. And given that he won in all three of his runs, it's quite possible to see a Democrat having won the state in a very Dem year like 2006 or 2012, thus granting them the incumbency advantage. I think that's enough grounds to give one of the two Senate seat to the Dems, although they'll have to fight hard to keep it this year. The other is probably safely in GOP hands for now. As for the House, I think Republicans would realistically have to concede 3 seats to Democrats (two in Columbus and one in Toledo) but they'll make sure the remaining 6 are as Safe R as they possibly can.

Local Government: Democrats haven't had much luck with gubernatorial elections here. Cordray lost by 3 points and I doubt a different Democrat would have prevailed even in 2018. So chances are the GOP still holds the Governor's Mansion this year. The state legislature is also gerrymandered to ensure GOP majorities (looks like they have a 19-12 edge in State House seats in the area) so it's a fairly easy trifecta.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To wrap up the Ohio split, let's look at the last reasonably close statewide election. You have to go back to the 2018 gubernatorial election, where Mike DeWine beat Richard Cordray by 3.7 points:



Cordray managed to win Erie by 14 points, a better performance than Hillary or Biden but not exactly on par with where Democrats need to be in the state. After that, his best state was Columbia, which he lost by just 3 points despite only winning two counties there. It is strange to think he could have won CL and still lost the overall race. Meanwhile, DeWine cleared up in OH, albeit by a margin far weaker than you'd expect of a Republican nowadays (for example, JD Vance won it by 27 points just four years later). Finally, Hamilton was only a tad less DeWine, still giving him a double-digit lead. Hamilton County's 10-point Cordray win was easily overpowered by the rest of the state's heavy Republican lean.


And as always to conclude, here's the PVI chart for all four states:


Historically, the division was pretty consistent, with ER as a strongly Democratic state, OH as a swingy but typically Dem-leaning state, and HM and CL being fairly heavily Republican (they traded spots for which was the most Republican for a while until 1988 when HM clearly established itself in that spot). OH began trending markedly to the right starting in 2000, and then saw the absolute collapse of Democratic support in 2016 that turned it Safe R almost overnight, with 2020 only making matters worse. The 2016-2020 double whammy was also a severe hit for Democrats in ER, bringing it into swing state territory for the first time in God knows how long. HM and CL were less affected by these trends, being already quite Republican, though CL has moved away from the swing state territory it seemed to be entering during the Obama years.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Not a fan of naming states (or anything tbh) after those guilty of genocide.

[You don't see any blue avatars now]

Not a fan of naming states (or anything tbh) after those guilty of genocide.

I mean, I doubt Antonio is, either, but it's a matter of practicality.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not a fan of naming states (or anything tbh) after those guilty of genocide.

I mean, I doubt Antonio is, either, but it's a matter of practicality.

Yeah, I'm not naming these states based on my own political predilections (otherwise I certainly wouldn't have named one Jackson and another Hamilton). I'm trying to imagine what kind of places would fit these states given American political culture.

...although now that you mention it, naming one of the two Indiana states after Debs is quite tempting.

[Gass3268]

Congressional Representation: ER's Senators were last elected in 2020 and 2022. The only Republican to win a Senate race in recent memory was Rob Portman in 2016, but he was an incumbent, and it's doubtful that he would have had an easy race against a well-organized state Democratic party. Given Tim Ryan won by 12 points, I'm going to assume the state still has two Dem Senators. As for the House, I'd expect at least a light Dem gerrymander. In the current state of things, they'd have to concede at least 2 seats (possibly 3 - Timmy might try to find out) to the GOP, but that's a fair price to pay to safeguard the other 5-6 (or 4-5 post-resdistricting).

Playing around here and I think the 5-2 vs 4-3 split comes down to whether or not there needs to be two Black VRA districts. If it is determined that you only need 1, I think 5-2 is easy. If you need two, it gets harder.

Based on Erie's demographics it's gotta be no more than one. Two would be a significant OVERrepresentation of the Black population.

Yeah, I think that's far, especially with 7 instead of 8 seats.

[Gass3268]

Here is what I got for Erie:



Not sure how you are doing naming, but I think a Americanized version of the British/Canadian system would be fun.

1 - Erie East - R+12 (Trump 59.8% - Biden 39.7%)
2 - Euclid-Mentor - D+6 (Biden 56.8% - Trump 42.1%
3 - Cleveland - D+32 (51.4% Black VAP) (Biden 80.6% - Trump 18.3%)
4 - Parma-Shaker Heights - D+6 (Biden 57.3% - Trump 41.7%)
5 - Lorain-Lakewood - D+5 (Biden 55.7-Trump 43.0%)
6 - Akron - D+8 (Biden 58.9%-Trump 39.7%)
7 - Erie West - R+13 (Trump 60.3% - Biden 38.3%)

Went with the suggestion of a medium Democratic gerrymander. I also only had to split a couple municipalities, and none of the big ones (Cleveland, Akron, etc.), so maybe if they wanted to be a bit more cutthroat maybe they could divide Cleveland up a bit more.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is what I got for Erie:



Not sure how you are doing naming, but I think a Americanized version of the British/Canadian system would be fun.

1 - Erie East - R+12 (Trump 59.8% - Biden 39.7%)
2 - Euclid-Mentor - D+6 (Biden 56.8% - Trump 42.1%
3 - Cleveland - D+32 (51.4% Black VAP) (Biden 80.6% - Trump 18.3%)
4 - Parma-Shaker Heights - D+6 (Biden 57.3% - Trump 41.7%)
5 - Lorain-Lakewood - D+5 (Biden 55.7-Trump 43.0%)
6 - Akron - D+8 (Biden 58.9%-Trump 39.7%)
7 - Erie West - R+13 (Trump 60.3% - Biden 38.3%)

Went with the suggestion of a medium Democratic gerrymander. I also only had to split a couple municipalities, and none of the big ones (Cleveland, Akron, etc.), so maybe if they wanted to be a bit more cutthroat maybe they could divide Cleveland up a bit more.

This is good.
I'll try to duplicate it if/when I do all of OH.
2020 or 2010 data?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this works really well! It's not even that egregious looking, but it should keep those 5 seats in Democratic hands for the decade barring a huge upset.

2020 or 2010 data?

It's gotta be 2020, since ER would have 8 seats for the 2010 round of redistricting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah, this works really well! It's not even that egregious looking, but it should keep those 5 seats in Democratic hands for the decade barring a huge upset.

2020 or 2010 data?

It's gotta be 2020, since ER would have 8 seats for the 2010 round of redistricting.

Ah. True.
I'll see what I can do.
Baseline assumptions: R gerrymandering everywhere but Erie, D gerrymandering in Erie.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, this works really well! It's not even that egregious looking, but it should keep those 5 seats in Democratic hands for the decade barring a huge upset.

2020 or 2010 data?

It's gotta be 2020, since ER would have 8 seats for the 2010 round of redistricting.

Ah. True.
I'll see what I can do.
Baseline assumptions: R gerrymandering everywhere but Erie, D gerrymandering in Erie.

I'll take the Midwest if you want to take the South.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah, this works really well! It's not even that egregious looking, but it should keep those 5 seats in Democratic hands for the decade barring a huge upset.

2020 or 2010 data?

It's gotta be 2020, since ER would have 8 seats for the 2010 round of redistricting.

Ah. True.
I'll see what I can do.
Baseline assumptions: R gerrymandering everywhere but Erie, D gerrymandering in Erie.

I'll take the Midwest if you want to take the South.

Ok if you want to put in the effort for the whole Census Midwest I'll be happy to take the whole Census South.

[Gass3268]

For Ohio I could see them going two different ways.

Hard Gerrymander - 2018 Brown loses every seat here. All 5 are Safe R and are at least R+10



1. Warren-Coshocton R+14
2. Youngstown-New Philadelphia R+13
3. Canton-Wooster R+11
4. Steubenville-Zanesville R+18
5. Chillicothe-Portsmouth R+25

Cleaner Gerrymander - Brown wins both 1 and 2, but Trump still gets over 60 of the vote in 2020 and it looks nicer



1.Warren-New Philadelphia R+15
2. Youngstown-Steubenville R+11
3. Canon-Wooster R+12
4. Zanesville-Athens R+20
5. Chillicothe-Portsmouth R+25

[Gass3268]

Here is what a fair map would look like for Ohio:



1. Youngstown-Warren R+4
2. Athens-Steubenville R+20
3. Canton-New Philadelphia R+12
4. Zanesville-Wooster R+23
5. Chillicothe-Portsmouth R+26

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks impressive!