Will JBE win Jefferson Parish with a majority?

[lfromnj]

In 2015 JBE only won Jefferson parish by 1% point but in 2016 Clinton lost LA by 20 but lost Jefferson Parish by 15. Obviously most counties in LA will probably swing R(with regards to combined vote) but Jefferson could be one area where he does better.

[Calthrina950]

In 2015 JBE only won Jefferson parish by 1% point but in 2016 Clinton lost LA by 20 but lost Jefferson Parish by 15. Obviously most counties in LA will probably swing R(with regards to combined vote) but Jefferson could be one area where he does better.

Possibly, as I fully expect Louisiana to experience the same urban-rural divide that we've seen elsewhere. Thus, it's likely that Edwards expands his winning margin in Jefferson Parish, compared to 2015, while losing many of the rural parishes he carried that year, and doing worse in others. I also think that he will improve his numbers in Caddo, East Baton Rouge, and Orleans Parishes. All in all, it should balance out, and would probably be enough for him to be reelected. We will also see the same trends in Kentucky and Mississippi. Bevin will win many, if not all, of Beshear's rural counties from 2015, while Beshear will improve in Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. And Hood will do much worse in the upland hill areas that he used to do well in, while probably producing a stronger performance in Hinds County compared to 2015.

[jamestroll]

Obviously yes.

Will probably be the right at the state median in the gubernatorial contest. Maybe slightly more pro-Edwards..

[Del Tachi]

He’ll get a strong plurality.  Somewhere around 47-49 percent. 

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean NO

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, I expect it to be one of the most D-trending counties if not the most.

[DINGO Joe]

It was Vitter's home county and I guess he had generated some goodwill or had people thinking it would be financially beneficial to vote for him despite the fact he was such a turd.  Neither Rispone or Abraham have any connection to the Parish.  The Republican DA and one R State Senator have appeared in ads supporting Edwards, so it seems likely that Jefferson will swing towards Edwards.

I think it'll be interesting to see how Edwards does in Plaquemines and Terrebone/Lafourche because that's where the Lt Gov and Attorney General are from and both of them are certainly eyeing a run for Gov in 2023.  Neither of them have any use for Rispone or Abraham performing well.

[DINGO Joe]

It should be noted that Jefferson Parish also becomes more multi-ethnic (less white) every election cycle, which has shown up in the early vote. 

[Xing]

I'll say yes, but narrowly.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Yes, and easily.

[jamestroll]

Well if Edwards wins in the run off I fully expect him to win around 55 to 56% of the vote here...

[Xing]

While statewide trends might be a little less predictable at times, it's clear that "trends are real" at the county level. Edwards could hit 55% here in the run-off even if he doesn't win.

[Del Tachi]

Strong performance for JBE in Jefferson Parish tonight, even if his statewide numbers are a bit off what I expected.

[lfromnj]

Did this county just TREND further d from 2016 .

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Did this county just TREND further d from 2016 .

It seems Trends Are indeed Real

[ElectionsGuy]

Did this county just TREND further d from 2016 .

Not only that, in St Tammany Edwards got almost 38% in what is a county Dems rarely get >30% in, and obviously, a historically Republican county that was a Republican blotch in a Democratic sea.

[McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero]

Did this county just TREND further d from 2016 .

Not only that, in St Tammany Edwards got almost 38% in what is a county Dems rarely get >30% in, and obviously, a historically Republican county that was a Republican blotch in a Democratic sea.

It actually had a very slight Republican swing this time around. It voted over 30% Democrat last time, though it hasn't voted Democrat since Edwin Edwards.

[ElectionsGuy]

Did this county just TREND further d from 2016 .

Not only that, in St Tammany Edwards got almost 38% in what is a county Dems rarely get >30% in, and obviously, a historically Republican county that was a Republican blotch in a Democratic sea.

It actually had a very slight Republican swing this time around. It voted over 30% Democrat last time, though it hasn't voted Democrat since Edwin Edwards.

Yes but that was in the runoff with Vitter in which he thumped him by 12 points statewide. Going from +12 to -4 is a 16 point swing, so him doing barely worse than his runoff with Vitter is noteworthy.

[Gass3268]

Prediction: A Democratic nominee for President will win Jefferson Parish before 2030.

[DINGO Joe]

Jefferson Parish is getting more multiethnic every election cycle.  Interestingly, Orleans is getting whiter, though even more Democratic. 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If he wants to have any chance of winning re-election he absolutely has to. Honestly, given the rural trends, he might need something like 52-55. And I think he will get that.

[Oryxslayer]

Oh, and this is the red half of the county, the communities to the south of the river are far bluer and often majority-minority.

[Skye]

Oh, and this is the red half of the county, the communities to the south of the river are far bluer and often majority-minority.

Big yikes for the GOP. JBE might actually win that area in the runoff.