AK-Sen: A GROSS opponent for Dan Sullivan
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  AK-Sen: A GROSS opponent for Dan Sullivan
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Author Topic: AK-Sen: A GROSS opponent for Dan Sullivan  (Read 9419 times)
GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #50 on: July 08, 2020, 09:08:18 PM »

Did the results leak early?  Republican odds dropped 24c on PredictIt.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #51 on: July 08, 2020, 09:09:40 PM »

Did the results leak early?  Republican odds dropped 24c on PredictIt.

StephieTheLefty (who basically commissioned it) described the results as “juicy”. PredictIt naturally assumed a tossup/shock Dem lead and panicked as per usual.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #52 on: July 08, 2020, 09:22:33 PM »

Did the results leak early?  Republican odds dropped 24c on PredictIt.

StephieTheLefty (who basically commissioned it) described the results as “juicy”. PredictIt naturally assumed a tossup/shock Dem lead and panicked as per usual.

She then retweeted an Al Gross tweet. So either the results are good for Gross or she's trolling.
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WD
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« Reply #53 on: July 08, 2020, 09:37:31 PM »

Did the results leak early?  Republican odds dropped 24c on PredictIt.

StephieTheLefty (who basically commissioned it) described the results as “juicy”. PredictIt naturally assumed a tossup/shock Dem lead and panicked as per usual.

She then retweeted an Al Gross tweet. So either the results are good for Gross or she's trolling.

If Gross is actually winning, the Senate is beyond lost.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #54 on: July 08, 2020, 10:37:40 PM »

We're getting the poll tomorrow morning right?
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #55 on: July 08, 2020, 11:19:22 PM »

Yup. I know Steph, she's great. A Republican pollster friend of mine on Election Twitter has also said its BAD for Dems, but I don't know what that means. We'll just have to wait and see.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #56 on: July 09, 2020, 12:26:48 AM »

Yup. I know Steph, she's great. A Republican pollster friend of mine on Election Twitter has also said its BAD for Dems, but I don't know what that means. We'll just have to wait and see.

Are you a Dem or a Republican,  if Gross is within the margin of error, it is bad news for Sullivan, he was expected to win overwhelmingly
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #57 on: July 09, 2020, 01:44:14 AM »

I meant BAD for Republicans. Juicy either way. We'll have to see in 7 hours won't we.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #58 on: July 09, 2020, 09:56:31 AM »

Okay, who expected the Topline Pres numbers to be better for the Democrats than the Senate? I didn't. OTOH, the huge undecided number in the senate suggests the race could still go any way, especially with the undecided split near evenly between Dems, Reps, and Indies.
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #59 on: July 09, 2020, 10:07:21 AM »

Yeah, this is a bad poll for the GOP. Trump only being up by 3 in AK, with only 6% undecideds means that AK is Likely R at worst now for President. AK-AL being Galvin +2 prob indicates Lean R, and the Senate race is definitely not a safe Sullivan hold.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #60 on: July 09, 2020, 10:32:46 AM »

Told ya AK senate would be competative. I remember posting about it a few months ago before polling and half of the people on this forum thought I was crazy. I'll be crazy again and say I think there's a good chance AK is one of the seats that helps Ds to get a majority, or maybe the 51, 52, or 53rd seat they win if they win in a landslide. This won't be seat 57 or smtg unless Gross stops running a campaign, and even then, I still have my doubts.
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #61 on: July 09, 2020, 11:18:04 AM »

Here's my breakdown.

Losing AL puts Dems at 46.

47: Colorado
48: Arizona
49: North Carolina
50: Maine
51: Montana
52: Iowa
53: Georgia-Regular
54: Kansas
55: Alaska
56: Georgia Special
57: Texas
58: South Carolina
59: Mississippi
60: Kentucky

In terms of any seats that have a possibility of flipping. Note possibility != plausibility. Maybe 55-56 is the absolute max.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #62 on: July 09, 2020, 11:29:24 AM »

calllllleeeddd it
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Storr
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« Reply #63 on: July 09, 2020, 12:00:26 PM »

Here's my breakdown.

Losing AL puts Dems at 46.

47: Colorado
48: Arizona
49: North Carolina
50: Maine
51: Montana
52: Iowa
53: Georgia-Regular
54: Kansas
55: Alaska
56: Georgia Special
57: Texas
58: South Carolina
59: Mississippi
60: Kentucky

In terms of any seats that have a possibility of flipping. Note possibility != plausibility. Maybe 55-56 is the absolute max.
IMO Democrats winning any of Kansas, Alaska, Texas, or either Georgia seats would make this nearly 2008 levels of Senate victories.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #64 on: July 09, 2020, 12:03:01 PM »

The unfortunate part of the R party is that Trump won the nomination,  if someone else won the nomination Rubio or Christie,  they would not have been a rookie at handling Covid 19. Not only did the Rs underperform in 2018 Senate, they are endangered to lose Supermajority in Senate.

The only way Trump.could have won reelection was in another 2016 environment with 3.5 percent unemployment
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #65 on: September 13, 2020, 03:29:40 AM »

Looking at the first post-deadline candidate list update, it seems the Green Party candidate and the independent I previously mentioned qualified here as write-ins. There's only one other candidate besides Sullivan and Gross on the ballot (the Alaskan Independence nominee).

Sullivan has been spinning Gross as untrustworthy as he is against M4A and for a public option but wrote an op-ed arguing for single payer healthcare as late as 2017.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #66 on: September 15, 2020, 10:45:38 AM »

Alaska's sample ballots have just changed and no longer show the party registrations of the candidates. This also applies to Alyse Galvin, who will simply be listed as the Democratic nominee for AK-AL.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #67 on: September 15, 2020, 10:46:56 AM »

Alaska's sample ballots have just changed and no longer show the party registrations of the candidates. This also applies to Alyse Galvin, who will simply be listed as the Democratic nominee for AK-AL.

Should this not help Gross? Toxic D and all that? Also Al Gross is very easy to remember.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #68 on: September 15, 2020, 10:49:55 AM »

Alaska's sample ballots have just changed and no longer show the party registrations of the candidates. This also applies to Alyse Galvin, who will simply be listed as the Democratic nominee for AK-AL.

Should this not help Gross? Toxic D and all that? Also Al Gross is very easy to remember.

It's the other way around. He's still going to be listed as the Democratic nominee, but the ballot will no longer indicate that he is an independent.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #69 on: September 15, 2020, 10:59:13 AM »

Alaska's sample ballots have just changed and no longer show the party registrations of the candidates. This also applies to Alyse Galvin, who will simply be listed as the Democratic nominee for AK-AL.

Should this not help Gross? Toxic D and all that? Also Al Gross is very easy to remember.

It's the other way around. He's still going to be listed as the Democratic nominee, but the ballot will no longer indicate that he is an independent.

Oh

bad
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #70 on: September 15, 2020, 03:11:30 PM »

Alaska's sample ballots have just changed and no longer show the party registrations of the candidates. This also applies to Alyse Galvin, who will simply be listed as the Democratic nominee for AK-AL.

In my opinion, this hurts Alise Galvin more than it hurts Gross.

As odious as Don Young is, Alaska voters are going have trouble throwing him out because of his seniority and his ability to bring home pork-barrel projects. Dan Sullivan doesn't have as much of those advantages-yet, meaning it will be somewhat easier for Gross to win.
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VAR
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« Reply #71 on: September 17, 2020, 05:09:51 PM »

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #72 on: September 18, 2020, 01:41:22 AM »



I thought Murkowski was unpopular, especially among Republicans.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #73 on: September 18, 2020, 07:02:41 AM »



I thought Murkowski was unpopular, especially among Republicans.

A lot of "swing voters" like her though.
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VAR
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« Reply #74 on: September 18, 2020, 03:54:00 PM »

Quote
Senate Leadership Fund, the top super PAC aligned with Senate Republicans, is making its first ad investment in Alaska, a state that's seen a recent influx of Democratic spending aimed at taking down Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.

SLF will spend $1.6 million on TV, radio and digital ads there to start on Wednesday and run for 18 days, the group confirmed to NBC News.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1240383#blogHeader

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