Is Kansas 2020 the West Virginia of 2000?

[Skye]

I've warned about talking about how rural areas have been 'maxed out' for the GOP, but in KS, Clinton literally got less than 20% of the vote in half of the counties. Arguments certainly could be made on how much can the GOP realistically improve in these areas, even if Trump performs better in the popular vote than he did in 2016 (which doesn't seem likely ATM).

I don't really think the Democrat will get a single-digit loss in KS unless Trump is having a really bad night. The congressional vote in 2018 was a 10-point GOP win, but let's also remember KS-02 was unusually close. Also, let's remember the results of the election aren't set in stone yet. We still don't know if Trump's either: 1. Gonna lose badly, 2. Eke out a narrow win like in 2016, or 3. Win the PV outright, (among other possibilities). It's always better to exercise caution this far out.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Democrats have never been able to chip away sufficiently at the degree of Republican self-identification of Kansas voters.  It is a state with a significant moderate Republican minority, but those moderate Republicans are now at a place that would still put them to the right in the Democratic Party.  They're moderate Republicans who would not be thrilled with leftist economics.  Many of these voters have bolted to the Democrats in individual elections, but not that many have actually BECOME Democrats because there is a gulf between where the Democrats are headed and where they're actually at. 

These moderate Republicans don't see what they want in the Democratic Party.  They believe that they can still work out their differences within the GOP framework. 

[Politician]

I swear the Kansas delusion on this forum is even worse than the R-RI fetishes.

[UWS]

Absolutely not, it is a safe R state and will vote Trump by 20 percentage points, period.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

As someone who had one of the most accurate predictions for 2018, I can say with 95% confidence that Kansas will be flipping in 2020.

If you can’t realize it, that’s okay. Not everyone has a fourth eye that allows them to see the future like I can.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

no, but it may be similar to virginia 2004.

[IceSpear]

While I definitely expect Johnson county to flip, and it might not be close at all, I still don't see that being anywhere near enough to even bring the state within single digits. The thing is, Kelly didn't only win because she flipped counties like Johnson and Riley, she won because she kept Kobach under 70% in a lot of the rural areas where Trump got over 80% of the vote. Democrats are not going to get numbers like that in a presidential race, so I don't see them doing better than a 10-15% loss, and in a close race, it'll probably be on the higher end of that.

She won because she did both. We can both acknowledge the obvious benefit Johnson County improvement gives Democrats in the state and also that the rest of the state makes the state as a whole unwinnable.

No.

 - The idea of Republicans being 'maxed out' is something that is always being brought up and it's tiring. It can apply to Kansas more than most other states, but this is a lazy way of saying 'Republicans can't improve because they already do so well'. In most cases when people have said this in the past, it hasn't come to fruition, and it almost never gets brought up in more applicable cases of Democrats being more maxed out in cities.

 - Johnson County is not guaranteed to trend as Democratic as it did in 2016, despite all the trend hype. In 2018, it voted 52-46 for Davids over Yoder. Even if we assume that will repeat and the rest of the state will swing that Democratic as well the Democrats will still lose by 10 or 11 points. Realistically, they will not do that well and lose by even more.

Hillary struggled to crack 15% in many of those rural counties. Maybe not completely maxed out, but pretty close to it. And whatever additional votes that Trump nets out of them would be a pittance.

The only way Johnson doesn't flip is if Trump is winning in a landslide. Even then, it still might.

But I agree with the overall point that Kansas will certainly not be flipping, though I do think it is a strong contender to have the biggest D swing/trend of any state.

You say that with confidence, but how do you know for sure? Anything less than the Democratic trend of 2016 is improbable?

This whole thread is a cesspool of overconfidence. And if people really held their trend sh**t to a standard, we'd be talking about the guaranteed to flip R state of Maine every day.

For this county? Yes, extremely improbable.

I'm confident that the "Johnson County is a toss up/lean R/won't flip" takes will age about as well as the "Hillary will win Elliott County" takes did.

[Politician]

While I definitely expect Johnson county to flip, and it might not be close at all, I still don't see that being anywhere near enough to even bring the state within single digits. The thing is, Kelly didn't only win because she flipped counties like Johnson and Riley, she won because she kept Kobach under 70% in a lot of the rural areas where Trump got over 80% of the vote. Democrats are not going to get numbers like that in a presidential race, so I don't see them doing better than a 10-15% loss, and in a close race, it'll probably be on the higher end of that.

She won because she did both. We can both acknowledge the obvious benefit Johnson County improvement gives Democrats in the state and also that the rest of the state makes the state as a whole unwinnable.

No.

 - The idea of Republicans being 'maxed out' is something that is always being brought up and it's tiring. It can apply to Kansas more than most other states, but this is a lazy way of saying 'Republicans can't improve because they already do so well'. In most cases when people have said this in the past, it hasn't come to fruition, and it almost never gets brought up in more applicable cases of Democrats being more maxed out in cities.

 - Johnson County is not guaranteed to trend as Democratic as it did in 2016, despite all the trend hype. In 2018, it voted 52-46 for Davids over Yoder. Even if we assume that will repeat and the rest of the state will swing that Democratic as well the Democrats will still lose by 10 or 11 points. Realistically, they will not do that well and lose by even more.

Hillary struggled to crack 15% in many of those rural counties. Maybe not completely maxed out, but pretty close to it. And whatever additional votes that Trump nets out of them would be a pittance.

The only way Johnson doesn't flip is if Trump is winning in a landslide. Even then, it still might.

But I agree with the overall point that Kansas will certainly not be flipping, though I do think it is a strong contender to have the biggest D swing/trend of any state.

You say that with confidence, but how do you know for sure? Anything less than the Democratic trend of 2016 is improbable?

This whole thread is a cesspool of overconfidence. And if people really held their trend sh**t to a standard, we'd be talking about the guaranteed to flip R state of Maine every day.

For this county? Yes, extremely improbable.

I'm confident that the "Johnson County is a toss up/lean R/won't flip" takes will age about as well as the "Hillary will win Elliott County" takes did.

No, wrong. Using "muh governor's race" doesn't work. I take it the rural northeastern counties in SD which voted for Billie Sutton by double digits are tossups?

[IceSpear]

While I definitely expect Johnson county to flip, and it might not be close at all, I still don't see that being anywhere near enough to even bring the state within single digits. The thing is, Kelly didn't only win because she flipped counties like Johnson and Riley, she won because she kept Kobach under 70% in a lot of the rural areas where Trump got over 80% of the vote. Democrats are not going to get numbers like that in a presidential race, so I don't see them doing better than a 10-15% loss, and in a close race, it'll probably be on the higher end of that.

She won because she did both. We can both acknowledge the obvious benefit Johnson County improvement gives Democrats in the state and also that the rest of the state makes the state as a whole unwinnable.

No.

 - The idea of Republicans being 'maxed out' is something that is always being brought up and it's tiring. It can apply to Kansas more than most other states, but this is a lazy way of saying 'Republicans can't improve because they already do so well'. In most cases when people have said this in the past, it hasn't come to fruition, and it almost never gets brought up in more applicable cases of Democrats being more maxed out in cities.

 - Johnson County is not guaranteed to trend as Democratic as it did in 2016, despite all the trend hype. In 2018, it voted 52-46 for Davids over Yoder. Even if we assume that will repeat and the rest of the state will swing that Democratic as well the Democrats will still lose by 10 or 11 points. Realistically, they will not do that well and lose by even more.

Hillary struggled to crack 15% in many of those rural counties. Maybe not completely maxed out, but pretty close to it. And whatever additional votes that Trump nets out of them would be a pittance.

The only way Johnson doesn't flip is if Trump is winning in a landslide. Even then, it still might.

But I agree with the overall point that Kansas will certainly not be flipping, though I do think it is a strong contender to have the biggest D swing/trend of any state.

You say that with confidence, but how do you know for sure? Anything less than the Democratic trend of 2016 is improbable?

This whole thread is a cesspool of overconfidence. And if people really held their trend sh**t to a standard, we'd be talking about the guaranteed to flip R state of Maine every day.

For this county? Yes, extremely improbable.

I'm confident that the "Johnson County is a toss up/lean R/won't flip" takes will age about as well as the "Hillary will win Elliott County" takes did.

No, wrong. Using "muh governor's race" doesn't work. I take it the rural northeastern counties in SD which voted for Billie Sutton by double digits are tossups?

Johnson County swung/trended massively D in 2016, barely supported Trump, supported Laura Kelly in a landslide, supported Sharice Davids by quite a bit, and even supported the downticket sacrificial lamb Democrats who got obliterated statewide, lol.

If you want to believe a county that fits this description is a toss up/lean R then be my guest. You will look foolish in a year.

[Politician]

While I definitely expect Johnson county to flip, and it might not be close at all, I still don't see that being anywhere near enough to even bring the state within single digits. The thing is, Kelly didn't only win because she flipped counties like Johnson and Riley, she won because she kept Kobach under 70% in a lot of the rural areas where Trump got over 80% of the vote. Democrats are not going to get numbers like that in a presidential race, so I don't see them doing better than a 10-15% loss, and in a close race, it'll probably be on the higher end of that.

She won because she did both. We can both acknowledge the obvious benefit Johnson County improvement gives Democrats in the state and also that the rest of the state makes the state as a whole unwinnable.

No.

 - The idea of Republicans being 'maxed out' is something that is always being brought up and it's tiring. It can apply to Kansas more than most other states, but this is a lazy way of saying 'Republicans can't improve because they already do so well'. In most cases when people have said this in the past, it hasn't come to fruition, and it almost never gets brought up in more applicable cases of Democrats being more maxed out in cities.

 - Johnson County is not guaranteed to trend as Democratic as it did in 2016, despite all the trend hype. In 2018, it voted 52-46 for Davids over Yoder. Even if we assume that will repeat and the rest of the state will swing that Democratic as well the Democrats will still lose by 10 or 11 points. Realistically, they will not do that well and lose by even more.

Hillary struggled to crack 15% in many of those rural counties. Maybe not completely maxed out, but pretty close to it. And whatever additional votes that Trump nets out of them would be a pittance.

The only way Johnson doesn't flip is if Trump is winning in a landslide. Even then, it still might.

But I agree with the overall point that Kansas will certainly not be flipping, though I do think it is a strong contender to have the biggest D swing/trend of any state.

You say that with confidence, but how do you know for sure? Anything less than the Democratic trend of 2016 is improbable?

This whole thread is a cesspool of overconfidence. And if people really held their trend sh**t to a standard, we'd be talking about the guaranteed to flip R state of Maine every day.

For this county? Yes, extremely improbable.

I'm confident that the "Johnson County is a toss up/lean R/won't flip" takes will age about as well as the "Hillary will win Elliott County" takes did.

No, wrong. Using "muh governor's race" doesn't work. I take it the rural northeastern counties in SD which voted for Billie Sutton by double digits are tossups?

Johnson County swung/trended massively D in 2016, barely supported Trump, supported Laura Kelly in a landslide, supported Sharice Davids by quite a bit, and even supported the downticket sacrificial lamb Democrats who got obliterated statewide, lol.

If you want to believe a county that fits this description is a toss up then be my guest. You will look foolish in a year.

"Two rural Obama/Trump counties in SD flipped in 2016 solely due to third parties, barely supported Trump, supported Billie Sutton in a landslide, supported the Dem sacrifical lamb running for Congress by quite a bit, and even supported the downticket sacrificial lamb Democrats who got obliterated statewide, lol.

If you want to believe a county that fits this description is a toss up then be my guest. You will look foolish in a year."

And for the record, I think Johnson County, KS is Lean/Likely D but using 2018 statewide elections as a baseline is foolish for obvious reasons.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

^you quite literally use 2018 results to “prove” that Democrats will win back Trumpbull County.

Cast stones at glass houses much

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

^you quite literally use 2018 results to “prove” that Democrats will win back Trumpbull County.

Cast stones at glass houses much

Something tells me this post is going to age poorly

Don’t worry, I’ll add it to my favorites so you don’t forget. But you’ll conspicuously disappear when Tarrant County votes left of Trumpbull and then will proceed to tell us how 2022 will be THE year that Democrats surge back in rural america

[Frenchrepublican]

^you quite literally use 2018 results to “prove” that Democrats will win back Trumpbull County.

Cast stones at glass houses much

Something tells me this post is going to age poorly

I hate to say this, but I agree with trendarereal on this. Trump will win Tarrant by 4 or 5 (at best), while he will win Trumbull by 6 to 8.  

[MT Treasurer]

I haven’t yet figured out what kind of redux it will be, but what I can predict with absolute certainty is that Supreme Goddess Laura Kelly will single-handedly crush the entire KS GOP, Roger Marshall, Kris Kobach, Politician, Computer, and every single overconfident Atlas blue avatar under her heels, and that the ensuing destruction and magnitude of this political earthquake will be felt several generations from now. However, owing to the mercy and genius of our master, KS will "merely" have the strongest Democratic swing/trend of any state in 2020 but won’t actually flip before 2024, when Our Deity herself will be on the "ballot" and unceremoniously "elected" in a 50-state landslide by her foolish pawns.

[Orser67]

Lol Kansas is not at all similar to Nebraska. We just saw a Democrat win statewidbein kansas, and it wasn’t even that close. And a House seat flipped by a landslide as well as almost a second one. Nebraska...yeah

Before anyone @ me, no I don’t think KS will flip or be that close. But it could get down to like 10 points or so, easy, just based on the big counties alone

*Snip*

Yeah they're not similar at all.

Also, from an historical perspective, there's the fact that they have voted for the same party in every presidential election since 1908. KS and NE may not be quite as close as MI and AL (which have voted for the same party in every presidential election since 1840), but there aren't many other pairs of states with a more similar political history than KS and NE.

[Politician]

Lol Kansas is not at all similar to Nebraska. We just saw a Democrat win statewidbein kansas, and it wasn’t even that close. And a House seat flipped by a landslide as well as almost a second one. Nebraska...yeah

Before anyone @ me, no I don’t think KS will flip or be that close. But it could get down to like 10 points or so, easy, just based on the big counties alone

*Snip*

Yeah they're not similar at all.

Also, from an historical perspective, there's the fact that they have voted for the same party in every presidential election since 1908. KS and NE may not be quite as close as MI and AL (which have voted for the same party in every presidential election since 1840), but there aren't many other pairs of states with a more similar political history than KS and NE.

Other close states are ND and SD, MA and RI, WA and OR.

[Flyersfan232]

Lol Kansas is not at all similar to Nebraska. We just saw a Democrat win statewide in kansas, and it wasn’t even that close. And a House seat flipped by a landslide as well as almost a second one. Nebraska...yeah

Before anyone @ me, no I don’t think KS will flip or be that close. But it could get down to like 10 points or so, easy, just based on the big counties alone

If it weren’t for Orman kobach would be governor rift right Kelly is gone in 2022

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

No

k

[tmthforu94]

No, Trump did very well in the state. Much of the backlash in 2018 was due to Brownback's popularity, not the national environment/Trump. Also, Kobach was an exceptionally terrible nominee, he alienated moderates and ran a lazy campaign + was a poor fundraiser. Couldn't even get the base rallied up.

2020 may be slightly closer due to erosion in the suburbans, but it won't be nearly enough to make Kansas even remotely competitive. 55-40 is about the worst I see it getting for Trump.

[Mr. Smith]

Only if Trump loses in a landslide.

[Agonized-Statism]

Absolutely inevitable Sun Belt/Rust Belt realignment

[QAnonKelly]

KS is super long term trending D but for now, it will just be cutting into the margin some. I could see it being competitive in 15 years or so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Trump did very well in the state. Much of the backlash in 2018 was due to Brownback's popularity, not the national environment/Trump. Also, Kobach was an exceptionally terrible nominee, he alienated moderates and ran a lazy campaign + was a poor fundraiser. Couldn't even get the base rallied up.

2020 may be slightly closer due to erosion in the suburbans, but it won't be nearly enough to make Kansas even remotely competitive. 55-40 is about the worst I see it getting for Trump.

I wouldnt go that far, the KS Senate race as well as KY, GA and AK are becoming competitive. With an impeached Trump, Trump can even lose KS

[Politician]

Absolutely inevitable Sun Belt/Rust Belt realignment

Great map, but why is rural, white, old ME-1 Democratic? Don't you know Trends are real???

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Lol Kansas is not at all similar to Nebraska. We just saw a Democrat win statewidbein kansas, and it wasn’t even that close. And a House seat flipped by a landslide as well as almost a second one. Nebraska...yeah

Before anyone @ me, no I don’t think KS will flip or be that close. But it could get down to like 10 points or so, easy, just based on the big counties alone

Bachelors or higher
KS: 32.3%
NE: 30.6%

Non-Hispanic White population
KS: 77.4%
NE: 81.3%

Urbanization
KS: 74.2%
NE: 73.1%

Median Age
KS: 36.6
NE: 36.4

Very Religious % (Gallup 2017)
KS: 44%
NE: 46%

Political affiliation (Gallup 2017)
KS: 38% Con, 38% Mod, 18% Lib, 48% R/Lean R, 34% D/Lean D
NE: 41% Con, 33% Mod, 21% Lib, 50% R/Lean R, 35% D/Lean D

Trump Approval/Disapproval (Gallup 2017)
KS: 48-47
NE: 49-47

Trump Approval/Disapproval (Morning Consult 2019)
KS: 50-47
NE: 50-47

Evangelical population (PEW)
KS: 31%
NE: 25%

2012 Presidential Election
KS: 60-38
NE: 60-38


2016 Presidential Election
KS: 56-36
NE: 59-34

Yeah they're not similar at all.

The difference is that Kansas has unpopular Republicans, while Kansas also has a large Hispanic population. NE-1 is also ready to flip.