NC-High Point University: Biden leads Sanders and Warren 31-20-15

[Sorenroy]

Sample size of 348 adults, conducted September 13th to 19th.

Biden — 31%
Sanders — 20%
Warren — 15%
Harris — 6%
Booker — 4%
Yang — 4%
Buttigieg — 3%
Castro — 1%
Klobuchar — 1%
O’Rourke — 1%

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2019/09/66memoC.pdf

[Sorenroy]

Btw, those are the numbers for registered Democrats only.

Yep. Registered Independents can also vote in the Democratic primary, but, without a screener question asking about primary preference, that number is less helpful in gauging the state of the race. Also, it is what both High Point and 538 present as the topline results.

[Sorenroy]

Btw, those are the numbers for registered Democrats only.

Yep. Registered Independents can also vote in the Democratic primary, but, without a screener question asking about primary preference, that number is less helpful in gauging the state of the race. Also, it is what both High Point and 538 present as the topline results.

Do we have the numbers including independents as well?

They're not provided, but a little math and you can come up with what those numbers might look like:

Candidate — Percentage (Difference from Dem only)
Biden — 26% (-5%)
Sanders — 17% (-3%)
Warren — 11% (-4%)
Harris — 6% (-0%)
Yang — 4% (±0)
Booker — 3% (-1%)
Buttigieg — 3% (±0)
Castro — 1% (±0)
Klobuchar — 1% (±0)
O’Rourke — 1% (±0)

As you might notice, the only real change is that the undecided/don't know/refused percentage increased from 13% to 26%. If we exclude those numbers (from both samples) we get something slightly more helpful:

Candidate — Percentage (Difference from Dem only)
Biden — 36% (-0%)
Sanders — 23% (+0%)
Warren — 15% (-3%)
Harris — 8% (+1%)
Yang — 6% (+1%)
Buttigieg — 3% (+1%)
Booker — 3% (-1%)
Castro — 1% (+0%)
Klobuchar — 1% (+0%)
O’Rourke — 1% (+0%)

Of course, excluding those who are undecided or otherwise don't answer is fairly problematic, as is including Independents without a screener. There are likely people in these numbers who won't be voting in the Democratic party or haven't made up their mind in a way that isn't represented by simply leaving them out of the model (ie: they won't be distributed to candidates in the same amounts as those who have already decided).

[Sorenroy]

Thanks for the numbers Sorenroy. If Yang is at 6% with independents in North Carolina this early, that's a good sign for his campaign.

No prob, Bob. However, Yang is at 4% with Independents, 7% when you exclude those who went either "Undecided" or Don't know/refuse". The 6% figure is amongst a 53-47 Dem-Ind sample excluding the two previous fields.

Here's my Google Sheet that I worked on for the numbers. Hopefully that helps break down where everything is coming from.