When does Biden get overtaken in national poll average?

[ElectionsGuy]

I've been thinking about if Biden will ever get overtaken in the aggregate polling. Right now he is at his lowest lead since announcing, just 6.5% ahead of Warren according to RCP. At this point in 2015, Clinton was up 13 points over Sanders, 41-28. Sanders never did overtake Clinton but got within 1 point of her at his highest point in April 2016. If you think it'll happen, when will Warren or Sanders overtake Biden?

Some other takeaways from RCP polling average right now

 - Warren + Sanders is currently at its highest it ever has been, at 38.8%
 - Harris is at her lowest point ever, at 4.7%
 - Biden decrease in the lead has more to do with Warren rising and other lower-tier candidates falling than him falling. His lowest point is 26% and is consistently getting 26-31%.
 - Everybody except the top tier is increasingly getting squeezed out of the race:

66.6% Top 3
25.0% 16 others

[Beet]

November or December.

[morgankingsley]

January

[Zarold]

I think he'll lose frontrunner status in January.

[BlueSwan]

October. Even though the curruption charges are completely bogus, the mere talk of it will hurt him. He might able to overcome it again (although I doubt it), but I think polling over the next couple of weeks will be bad for him.

[QAnonKelly]

January

[Landslide Lyndon]

October. Even though the curruption charges are completely bogus, the mere talk of it will hurt him. He might able to overcome it again (although I doubt it), but I think polling over the next couple of weeks will be bad for him.

I don't think these charges are going to affect Biden's numbers. If anything they will cause sympathy as he will be seen as the victim of another Trump/Republican conspiracy.

[JG]

October. Even though the curruption charges are completely bogus, the mere talk of it will hurt him. He might able to overcome it again (although I doubt it), but I think polling over the next couple of weeks will be bad for him.

I don't think these charges are going to affect Biden's numbers. If anything they will cause sympathy as he will be seen as the victim of another Trump/Republican conspiracy.

Yeah. I'm far from a Biden supporter, but I'm a bit puzzled about how everyone is acting like it's a given that the whole Ukraine thing is going to destroy his campaign. I mean, I guess it could happen, but I don't think that's a certainty.

[Podgy the Bear]

So far, there is no indication in the softening of Biden's support.  His strength is primarily based in the South.  Recent polls in SC and GA indicate that.

[BlueSwan]

October. Even though the curruption charges are completely bogus, the mere talk of it will hurt him. He might able to overcome it again (although I doubt it), but I think polling over the next couple of weeks will be bad for him.

I don't think these charges are going to affect Biden's numbers. If anything they will cause sympathy as he will be seen as the victim of another Trump/Republican conspiracy.

Yeah. I'm far from a Biden supporter, but I'm a bit puzzled about how everyone is acting like it's a given that the whole Ukraine thing is going to destroy his campaign. I mean, I guess it could happen, but I don't think that's a certainty.

Then think of it this way:

1) Biden is the frontrunner mostly because he is deemed the candidate best equipped to beat Trump, which is what most democrats care the most about currently.

2) Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 because of (bogus) claims that she was corrupt.

If you agree with the above two points, then it isn't hard to see why (bogus) corruption charges against Biden makes him look very vulnerable in an election against Trump and hence makes Biden no longer appear as the most electable of the democrats, in which case the strongest argument for supporting Biden crumbles.

[JG]

October. Even though the curruption charges are completely bogus, the mere talk of it will hurt him. He might able to overcome it again (although I doubt it), but I think polling over the next couple of weeks will be bad for him.

I don't think these charges are going to affect Biden's numbers. If anything they will cause sympathy as he will be seen as the victim of another Trump/Republican conspiracy.

Yeah. I'm far from a Biden supporter, but I'm a bit puzzled about how everyone is acting like it's a given that the whole Ukraine thing is going to destroy his campaign. I mean, I guess it could happen, but I don't think that's a certainty.

Then think of it this way:

1) Biden is the frontrunner mostly because he is deemed the candidate best equipped to beat Trump, which is what most democrats care the most about currently.

2) Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 because of (bogus) claims that she was corrupt.

If you agree with the above two points, then it isn't hard to see why (bogus) corruption charges against Biden makes him look very vulnerable in an election against Trump and hence makes Biden no longer appear as the most electable of the democrats, in which case the strongest argument for supporting Biden crumbles.

Yeah, I do see the rationale behind this prediction and I do agree that makes him vulnerable. However, I'm not sure if Biden's supporters actually see that bogus corruption claims as the main reason why Hillary lost in 2016 and I'm not sure if they see the Ukraine thing as possibly impactful as the Email ''scandal'' or the Benghazi one.

[eric82oslo]

October. At latest November. Warren will probably peak before Christmas, while Sanders is likely to already have peaked.

[Landslide Lyndon]

October. Even though the curruption charges are completely bogus, the mere talk of it will hurt him. He might able to overcome it again (although I doubt it), but I think polling over the next couple of weeks will be bad for him.

I don't think these charges are going to affect Biden's numbers. If anything they will cause sympathy as he will be seen as the victim of another Trump/Republican conspiracy.

Yeah. I'm far from a Biden supporter, but I'm a bit puzzled about how everyone is acting like it's a given that the whole Ukraine thing is going to destroy his campaign. I mean, I guess it could happen, but I don't think that's a certainty.

Then think of it this way:

1) Biden is the frontrunner mostly because he is deemed the candidate best equipped to beat Trump, which is what most democrats care the most about currently.

2) Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 because of (bogus) claims that she was corrupt.

If you agree with the above two points, then it isn't hard to see why (bogus) corruption charges against Biden makes him look very vulnerable in an election against Trump and hence makes Biden no longer appear as the most electable of the democrats, in which case the strongest argument for supporting Biden crumbles.

Unlike with Clinton, the media have gone out of their way to point out that there is no evidence of wrongdoing by the Bidens.

[BlueSwan]

October. Even though the curruption charges are completely bogus, the mere talk of it will hurt him. He might able to overcome it again (although I doubt it), but I think polling over the next couple of weeks will be bad for him.

I don't think these charges are going to affect Biden's numbers. If anything they will cause sympathy as he will be seen as the victim of another Trump/Republican conspiracy.

Yeah. I'm far from a Biden supporter, but I'm a bit puzzled about how everyone is acting like it's a given that the whole Ukraine thing is going to destroy his campaign. I mean, I guess it could happen, but I don't think that's a certainty.

Then think of it this way:

1) Biden is the frontrunner mostly because he is deemed the candidate best equipped to beat Trump, which is what most democrats care the most about currently.

2) Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 because of (bogus) claims that she was corrupt.

If you agree with the above two points, then it isn't hard to see why (bogus) corruption charges against Biden makes him look very vulnerable in an election against Trump and hence makes Biden no longer appear as the most electable of the democrats, in which case the strongest argument for supporting Biden crumbles.

Unlike with Clinton, the media have gone out of their way to point out that there is no evidence of wrongdoing by the Bidens.

Well, that is good. I'm in Denmark, so it is very hard for me to properly assess the US media coverage. Whenever I visit the Foxnews homepage it seems that "Biden corruption" is all I see, so I figured that this was pretty exclusively the angle run by right-wing media.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Harris seems to be losing her supporters mostly to Warren (though some of them fleeing to Biden would also make sense, since he hasn't collapsed despite barely running a campaign).

[President Johnson]

I'm still optimistic and say never. He will be the nominee and defeat Donald Trump to become the 46th President of the United States.

[Orser67]

October. Even though the curruption charges are completely bogus, the mere talk of it will hurt him. He might able to overcome it again (although I doubt it), but I think polling over the next couple of weeks will be bad for him.

I don't think these charges are going to affect Biden's numbers. If anything they will cause sympathy as he will be seen as the victim of another Trump/Republican conspiracy.

Yeah. I'm far from a Biden supporter, but I'm a bit puzzled about how everyone is acting like it's a given that the whole Ukraine thing is going to destroy his campaign. I mean, I guess it could happen, but I don't think that's a certainty.

Then think of it this way:

1) Biden is the frontrunner mostly because he is deemed the candidate best equipped to beat Trump, which is what most democrats care the most about currently.

2) Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 because of (bogus) claims that she was corrupt.

If you agree with the above two points, then it isn't hard to see why (bogus) corruption charges against Biden makes him look very vulnerable in an election against Trump and hence makes Biden no longer appear as the most electable of the democrats, in which case the strongest argument for supporting Biden crumbles.

Unlike with Clinton, the media have gone out of their way to point out that there is no evidence of wrongdoing by the Bidens.

Yeah, the experience with Clinton could help Biden in that:
a)the media is much more ready for Trump's false/baseless/exaggerated claims, and
b)Democratic primary voters are much more likely to view any claim of corruption made by Trump as total bs

[ElectionsGuy]

Bumping as Warren is only 0.5%(!) away from Biden in RCP's average. I voted December, but it could happen this week. Sanders has also taken a plunge to 14%, but all this could just be because of the poll drought.

[They not like us]

I originally voted December, but I think later this month or early November sounds better.

[Xing]

I could see it at least momentarily happening later this month. The question is whether or not that will hold, and if it translates to Warren to doing well enough in the individual contests.

[They not like us]

Already happened.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

I guess I was technically correct when I said later this month then lol

[Mr. Morden]

Already happened.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

In the RCP average, sure, but that's because RCP arbitrarily leaves out certain polls.  Namely, it doesn't include the HarrisX polls for ScottRasmussen.com, and also doesn't include the latest Ipsos/Reuters poll.  If both of those are included, then Biden is still narrowly ahead.