What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future? (user search)
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  What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?  (Read 5870 times)
Battista Minola 1616
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Posts: 11,282
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

« on: July 15, 2020, 08:06:48 AM »

I dislike taking wild guesses like the ones this thread asks, so I will utilize this space to make a consideration about racial and ethnic voting patterns.

Over the long term, which I will define as the last thirty to fourty years roughly, this is what has happened with them:
Non-Hispanic White voters have become clearly more Republican.
Black or African American voters have remained as overwhelmingly Democratic as they were then.
Hispanic or Latino voters have probably become somewhat more Republican.
Asian American voters have become much, much more Democratic.
(I have never seen data for Native Americans or Native Hawaiians but judging from county results they do not seem to have changed politics)

This is an ugly way to put things, but this "racial trade-off" has worked perfectly fine for the Republican Party in the face of the fact that Democratic-leaning minority groups have grown while the Republican-leaning non-Hispanic White majority has shrunk. Why couldn't the path forward for the Grand Old Party be more of the same?
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Battista Minola 1616
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,282
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2020, 09:47:12 AM »

I dislike taking wild guesses like the ones this thread asks

Wild guesses are awesome

Yes, but they will make 90% of us look like fools or idiots within 10 years.
(At least judging by the few threads dating back to 2004 that I have seen)
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Battista Minola 1616
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*****
Posts: 11,282
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2020, 01:44:53 PM »

I dislike taking wild guesses like the ones this thread asks

Wild guesses are awesome

Yes, but they will make 90% of us look like fools or idiots within 10 years.
(At least judging by the few threads dating back to 2004 that I have seen)

You have to look at it less as a genuine prediction of the future, which is impossible because some events are unpredictable, but as a snapshot of the zeitgeist. I love reading through those old threads because they remind us to question conventional wisdom. These hypotheticals force us to step back and take a macro view, which also makes us question the emotional takes we see on, say, the 2020 part of the website.

Well that is always a good thing to do.
But it is also the reason why I usually do not even try to speculate about 2020, because the conventional wisdom (especially on this site) seems to be usually overconfident.
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Battista Minola 1616
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*****
Posts: 11,282
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2020, 04:40:52 AM »
« Edited: August 17, 2020, 01:26:20 PM by 𝔅𝔞𝔭𝔱𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔞 𝔐𝔦𝔫𝔬𝔩𝔞 »

Over the long term, which I will define as the last thirty to fourty years roughly, this is what has happened with them:
Non-Hispanic White voters have become clearly more Republican.
Black or African American voters have remained as overwhelmingly Democratic as they were then.
Hispanic or Latino voters have probably become somewhat more Republican.
Asian American voters have become much, much more Democratic.
(I have never seen data for Native Americans or Native Hawaiians but judging from county results they do not seem to have changed politics)

This is an ugly way to put things, but this "racial trade-off" has worked perfectly fine for the Republican Party in the face of the fact that Democratic-leaning minority groups have grown while the Republican-leaning non-Hispanic White majority has shrunk. Why couldn't the path forward for the Grand Old Party be more of the same?

The percentage of Latino + AAPI voters has increased drastically in the last 30 years, from 4-5% in 1988 to 18% in 2020. Asian voters "trending Dem" has mostly been due to 1) demographic replacement as new immigrants arrive in a different political climate + 2) generational replacement as the children of post-1965 immigrants have come of age. The Non-Hispanic White vote has trended Republican while the NHW % of the electorate has gone down.

I know.
I also believe that Republicans are continuously making some gains with children and grandchildren of previous Hispanic immigrants that are more or less offset by new Hispanic immigrants voting very strongly Democratic.
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Battista Minola 1616
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*****
Posts: 11,282
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2020, 06:26:30 AM »

The Democratic Party is composed traditionally of racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants on the one hand who live primarily in the cities and metropolises surrounding those urban centers, and suburban college-educated whites, retaining just enough of the white working class to ensure political dominance so long as whites retain a majority of the electorate.  It's a working formula for success, especially as the memory of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency (on par with Herbert Hoover) and his slavish congressional Republican enablers remains foremost in the mind of Americans.

Republicans meanwhile endure years wandering about in the political wilderness, having lost the confidence of the American people in their ability to govern responsibly, with only rural and exurban voters buoying them in their traditional political strongholds.  Although as memories of the Trump years gradually fade from public consciousness (give it a few decades), they might have a chance in attracting support from up-and-coming minorities as more join the middle class and start to really build up their wealth and catch up with whites.

Think of your traditional 1950s suburban families in stand-alone houses with that nice green lawn, white picket fence, and a shiny brand-new Lexus resting on the driveway, just with darker skin-tones.  They will be your political salvation -eventually.  It won't happen overnight, though, so you Republicans will have to follow the example of Democrats in the 1980s for a bit, and find your way as best you can, living in a world defined by the parameters we shall set just like we had to do during the Reagan era.   

How I think this could play out: Trump loses this fall. Biden will retire after one term, and his VP (either Harris or Duckworth) will choose a white male VP (Kennedy or Beshear?) and win against Cotton in 2024 and Hawley in 2028. By 2032, the memory of Trump has largely faded, and he may even be dead. That year, the Republicans finally win by nominating a moderate who beats the sitting VP and first got elected as a Governor or Senator in 2022, 2024, 2026 or 2028. Their ticket includes at least one woman or minority. Republicans sweep the Midwest (including Illinois) and the Northeast (with the exceptions of Maryland, Massachusetts and New York), and win the perennial swing states of Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Arizona have turned blue, but Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are tossups.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZPxzJ

So Chicago crashes within twelve years? Good.
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Battista Minola 1616
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*****
Posts: 11,282
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2020, 06:24:02 AM »

In terms of talk of a ‘permanent Democratic majority’, it probably is unlikely, considering no party has held the White House for more than three terms since FDR and Truman, but it is not impossible. Looking at recent history, it is easy to think that the parties always balance out even if one is defeated in a landslide, producing two roughly even coalitions. However, this has only fairly recently become the case. The GOP was completely dominant from 1860-1932, because the country was polarised along sectional/ethnoreligious lines, and the GOP’s base, northern Protestants, were a clear majority of the electorate.

 I don’t think we’re going to enter a period of Democratic dominance akin to that, but America is at its most polarised since the Gilded Age. History teaches us that it is possible for one party to alienate such a swathe of the electorate to put them into long-term opposition. It has happened twice: after the Civil War and ‘Rum, Romanism and Rebellion’, and after the New Deal. It is conceivable the Trump administration could have the same effect, tarnishing the GOP brand for the rest of a large number of voters’ lives among many minorities, educated voters, younger voters and women.

Well the most one of the two current major parties has controlled the White House ininterruptly is 20 years (1933 - 1953). During that period Republicans were almost completely wiped out at one point and gained back both houses of Congress within ten years. In the Gilded Age the Republicans were dominant, true, but Democrats won the White House sometimes, controlled very easily 45% of the national vote, and controlled the House of Represenatives frequently. My bar for the expression "long-term opposition" is high.
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