It's difficult to predict where the GOP will go, but I think the Democratic party will continue it's current trajectory of neoliberal economic policies favored by their new base of UMC degree holders and social liberalism favored by their old base of younger and diverse working classes and students.
The likeliest path for the GOP is to get lost in the wilderness after losing 2020 and 2024, which I'd obviously like to avoid. It needs to simultaneously become more pro-worker/skeptical of corporate powers, address student debt, climate change and cost of living in urban/suburban areas, while remaining hawkish on immigration and geopolitics (China) if it wants to remain relevant. Considering Ronna McDaniel is retaining the GOP's 2016 platform for 2020, I don't have much faith in the party leadership to read tea leaves and adopt to a changing world.
How I think this could play out: Trump loses this fall. Biden will retire after one term, and his VP (either Harris or Duckworth) will choose a white male VP (Kennedy or Beshear?) and win against Cotton in 2024 and Hawley in 2028. By 2032, the memory of Trump has largely faded, and he may even be dead. That year, the Republicans finally win by nominating a moderate who beats the sitting VP and first got elected as a Governor or Senator in 2022, 2024, 2026 or 2028. Their ticket includes at least one woman or minority. Republicans sweep the Midwest (including Illinois) and the Northeast (with the exceptions of Maryland, Massachusetts and New York), and win the perennial swing states of Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Arizona have turned blue, but Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are tossups.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZPxzJ
Well, even if the GOP does quite well in 2032 due to 12 years of Democratic leadership, Illinois and New Jersey will still be blue. Optimistically I could see RI, CT and VT coming within 5 points and NJ within 5-10 points, but Illinois is going nowhere. It will be much easier to keep Texas/Minnesota/North Carolina competitive.
