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September 29, 2020, 11:47:52 am
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Discussion thread link: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=400306.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?  (Read 3977 times)
Chocolate Thunder
Angry_Weasel
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« on: October 02, 2019, 04:54:39 pm »

Republicans become much more fiscally left wing, becoming the main party in support of protectionism, and they start to support universal healthcare and related fiscal left wing policies. However they become more reactionary socially.

Democrats stay put as the social liberal party, but fully adopt free trade as a policy. They also become more religious, while the republican party becomes more secular.
Secular, but more reactionary...
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Chocolate Thunder
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2019, 07:26:45 am »

Republicans become much more fiscally left wing, becoming the main party in support of protectionism, and they start to support universal healthcare and related fiscal left wing policies. However they become more reactionary socially.

Democrats stay put as the social liberal party, but fully adopt free trade as a policy. They also become more religious, while the republican party becomes more secular.
Secular, but more reactionary...

Yes? Those things are anything but mutually exclusive.

Not that they are but what usually comes out of such a profile? Sounds violent.
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Chocolate Thunder
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2019, 08:43:47 am »

Will the GOP ever move to the left on social issues (eg: LGBT Rights, Gun Control, Abortion)?

Probably not but you never know.
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Chocolate Thunder
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2019, 01:40:24 pm »
« Edited: October 21, 2019, 02:15:49 pm by Edgar Suit Larry »

Vermont is neither cosmopolitan, nor corporate, nor urban, nor coastal. Phil Scott is from a town of 9,000 people, drives a race car for fun, and worked for his uncle's construction company until he was elected governor.
But who REALLY lives in Vermont? But hey. You are the one who lives there.
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Chocolate Thunder
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2019, 11:42:17 am »

The Democrats seem destined to be the party of urban cosmopolitans, minorities, younger voters, the wealthy, and college-educated voters, while Republicans seem destined to be the party of evangelicals, the white working class, and rural voters.
If that happens, they might as well go down the EU far-right route where they turn center-left on economics.

Basically become stereotypical pre-1960s Democrats?
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Chocolate Thunder
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2020, 08:08:21 am »

The Democratic Party is composed traditionally of racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants on the one hand who live primarily in the cities and metropolises surrounding those urban centers, and suburban college-educated whites, retaining just enough of the white working class to ensure political dominance so long as whites retain a majority of the electorate.  It's a working formula for success, especially as the memory of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency (on par with Herbert Hoover) and his slavish congressional Republican enablers remains foremost in the mind of Americans.

Republicans meanwhile endure years wandering about in the political wilderness, having lost the confidence of the American people in their ability to govern responsibly, with only rural and exurban voters buoying them in their traditional political strongholds.  Although as memories of the Trump years gradually fade from public consciousness (give it a few decades), they might have a chance in attracting support from up-and-coming minorities as more join the middle class and start to really build up their wealth and catch up with whites.

Think of your traditional 1950s suburban families in stand-alone houses with that nice green lawn, white picket fence, and a shiny brand-new Lexus resting on the driveway, just with darker skin-tones.  They will be your political salvation -eventually.  It won't happen overnight, though, so you Republicans will have to follow the example of Democrats in the 1980s for a bit, and find your way as best you can, living in a world defined by the parameters we shall set just like we had to do during the Reagan era.   

How I think this could play out: Trump loses this fall. Biden will retire after one term, and his VP (either Harris or Duckworth) will choose a white male VP (Kennedy or Beshear?) and win against Cotton in 2024 and Hawley in 2028. By 2032, the memory of Trump has largely faded, and he may even be dead. That year, the Republicans finally win by nominating a moderate who beats the sitting VP and first got elected as a Governor or Senator in 2022, 2024, 2026 or 2028. Their ticket includes at least one woman or minority. Republicans sweep the Midwest (including Illinois) and the Northeast (with the exceptions of Maryland, Massachusetts and New York), and win the perennial swing states of Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Arizona have turned blue, but Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are tossups.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZPxzJ

So Chicago crashes within twelve years? Good.

I don't care what people think. I liked living in Chicago and was there until they wanted me to live in suburban Connecticut. It was fun and nice there even on Florida pay ($85k).
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Chocolate Thunder
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2020, 09:48:52 pm »

The resting assumption here seems to be that the GOP won't just *move on* from the effects of Donald Trump right away, in more ways than one; I agree with this.

With that as an assumption, however, this question necessarily becomes a two-parter: 1) What do the parties look like in the next 2-3 elections, were the effects of Donald Trump's Presidency are heavy, and 2) What do the parties look like in the mid-2030s and 2040s once Trump starts to fade a bit more.

For both scenarios, I think an ample comparison would be Trump as the Republican Jimmy Carter, Biden as the 1980 Reagan and Southern Democrats in the 1980s as "college educated White suburban Republicans/independents" today.  There were likely many Democrats who thought winning back "Carter-Reagan voters" was the way to go, and there were likely many Democrats who saw going after "Anderson voters" or whatever as more reliable.  Either way, the GOP was entering a high-water-mark situation that was never going to be sustainable past 3-4 elections, so EVENTUALLY things were going to break.

For the answer to Question 1 ... you're likely looking at it.  The Republicans (i.e., Romney voters) who defected to Hillary are unlikely to return in 2020, and it's actually pretty likely more will defect, also voting Democratic downballot to stop Trump in full.  I would imagine that if Biden is popular in 2024, these voters would stick in his camp and lead to *TRENDS* Smiley accelerating further into the 2024 election.  However, I also think this will coincide with "White working  class" voters shifting toward the Democrats, as well.  We all now seem to think of these "WWC voters" as rural, but they're usually not ... they're people in industrial PA and OH who voted for Obama and were never your rabid right wingers in the first place.  This is to say that the GOP has plenty of a "base" without Romney-Clinton types OR Obama-Trump types, and their time in the wilderness is not likely to include EITHER of these groups loyally sticking with them.  I think this will give Democrats majorities to pass significant legislation to move this country further left economically in the late 2020s and early 2030s, causing the party's popularity to necessarily wane a bit (as all dominant parties usually do), bringing us to Question 2...

... I think around 2032 or 2036, you will see a GOP that has successfully (or, more accurately, NECESSARILY) combined a softer, less offensive tone on cultural issues with a more egalitarian (but not necessarily "populist in rhetoric," like your Hawley types) economic platform to look a lot more like a pre-attention-whoring John Kasich.  In other words, it will be a pro-family, pro-law and order and socially conservative party ... but it won't be perceived as quite as reactionary or offensive to the vast swaths of the electorate that it currently turns off.  Additionally, it will certainly still be a center-right party on economics that largely favors business more than the Democrats ... but it won't be run by the Heritage Foundation and will at least recognize that ANY popular party needs to look out for a majority of Americans' economic interests.  (Sidenote: It's honestly much too hard to say what the parties will be saying about trade at this point ... too many global economic factors will be involved, and anyone who tells you differently probably only looks at trade through an emotional lens.)  I think this will cause the GOP to make slight gains among Hispanic voters (especially more assimilated ones), moderate Asian voters and indeed win back some suburban support.  With ALL of these groups, there will indeed be ceilings, including among White college grads (some are simply going to be loyal to the Democratic Party in the same way that Millennials are today...), and it'll be hard to sketch out what that will look like on the EC map, frankly.

Bottom line, is that I predict we will see current suburban trends accelerate through 2028 or 2032, but I ALSO think GOP trends among "WWC" voters will hit a surprisingly low ceiling, allowing a period of Democratic dominance that is perhaps more fragile than it appears.  Once significant legislation is inevitably passed by this Democratic government, you will see backlash, and the natural area for the GOP to gain back some momentum will be with groups that would otherwise be prone to support right-of-center policies (i.e., socially conservative minorities and well-to-do Whites).

Honestly, though ... go back and read posts from 2004, lol.  Nobody here has a clue.
This is all predicated on Trump losing. However, I don't expect Trump's 2nd to be any better than his first. I can see him losing Congress over the unrest intensifying and his economic mismanagement catching up to him by the end. It would still put us in the same boat for your predictions minus one Biden term. But what he keeps at least the Senate or someone else wins a third term?
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