What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?

[Roll Roons]

Will the GOP ever move to the left on social issues (eg: LGBT Rights, Gun Control, Abortion)?

More likely is the Dems come to the right

I doubt it. I think both parties will be forced to move to the center on abortion (moderately pro choice for Dems, moderately pro life for the GOP), but the GOP will be forced to go left on all other issues, including guns.

Not sure about all other issues, but I think it's very likely that Republicans move left on climate change and gay marriage. They wouldn't support a Green New Deal, but would acknowledge that it is very real and that there is a need for action on it. Most young Republicans I know, myself included, support gay marriage, and crusading against it just makes the party look out of touch. What happened to Denver Riggleman was a disgrace.

[Roll Roons]

The Democratic Party is composed traditionally of racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants on the one hand who live primarily in the cities and metropolises surrounding those urban centers, and suburban college-educated whites, retaining just enough of the white working class to ensure political dominance so long as whites retain a majority of the electorate.  It's a working formula for success, especially as the memory of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency (on par with Herbert Hoover) and his slavish congressional Republican enablers remains foremost in the mind of Americans.

Republicans meanwhile endure years wandering about in the political wilderness, having lost the confidence of the American people in their ability to govern responsibly, with only rural and exurban voters buoying them in their traditional political strongholds.  Although as memories of the Trump years gradually fade from public consciousness (give it a few decades), they might have a chance in attracting support from up-and-coming minorities as more join the middle class and start to really build up their wealth and catch up with whites.

Think of your traditional 1950s suburban families in stand-alone houses with that nice green lawn, white picket fence, and a shiny brand-new Lexus resting on the driveway, just with darker skin-tones.  They will be your political salvation -eventually.  It won't happen overnight, though, so you Republicans will have to follow the example of Democrats in the 1980s for a bit, and find your way as best you can, living in a world defined by the parameters we shall set just like we had to do during the Reagan era.   

How I think this could play out: Trump loses this fall. Biden will retire after one term, and his VP (either Harris or Duckworth) will choose a white male VP (Kennedy or Beshear?) and win against Cotton in 2024 and Hawley in 2028. By 2032, the memory of Trump has largely faded, and he may even be dead. That year, the Republicans finally win by nominating a moderate who beats the sitting VP and first got elected as a Governor or Senator in 2022, 2024, 2026 or 2028. Their ticket includes at least one woman or minority. Republicans sweep the Midwest (including Illinois) and the Northeast (with the exceptions of Maryland, Massachusetts and New York), and win the perennial swing states of Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Arizona have turned blue, but Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are tossups.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZPxzJ

[Roll Roons]

The Democratic Party is composed traditionally of racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants on the one hand who live primarily in the cities and metropolises surrounding those urban centers, and suburban college-educated whites, retaining just enough of the white working class to ensure political dominance so long as whites retain a majority of the electorate.  It's a working formula for success, especially as the memory of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency (on par with Herbert Hoover) and his slavish congressional Republican enablers remains foremost in the mind of Americans.

Republicans meanwhile endure years wandering about in the political wilderness, having lost the confidence of the American people in their ability to govern responsibly, with only rural and exurban voters buoying them in their traditional political strongholds.  Although as memories of the Trump years gradually fade from public consciousness (give it a few decades), they might have a chance in attracting support from up-and-coming minorities as more join the middle class and start to really build up their wealth and catch up with whites.

Think of your traditional 1950s suburban families in stand-alone houses with that nice green lawn, white picket fence, and a shiny brand-new Lexus resting on the driveway, just with darker skin-tones.  They will be your political salvation -eventually.  It won't happen overnight, though, so you Republicans will have to follow the example of Democrats in the 1980s for a bit, and find your way as best you can, living in a world defined by the parameters we shall set just like we had to do during the Reagan era.   

How I think this could play out: Trump loses this fall. Biden will retire after one term, and his VP (either Harris or Duckworth) will choose a white male VP (Kennedy or Beshear?) and win against Cotton in 2024 and Hawley in 2028. By 2032, the memory of Trump has largely faded, and he may even be dead. That year, the Republicans finally win by nominating a moderate who beats the sitting VP and first got elected as a Governor or Senator in 2022, 2024, 2026 or 2028. Their ticket includes at least one woman or minority. Republicans sweep the Midwest (including Illinois) and the Northeast (with the exceptions of Maryland, Massachusetts and New York), and win the perennial swing states of Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Arizona have turned blue, but Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are tossups.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZPxzJ

Do you think that after being locked out of the White House for twelve years, that Republicans will finally get weaned off of race-baiting as a campaign strategy?

They would have no choice. Relying on the resentment of angry old white men is not sustainable. Unless they want to be permanently locked out of the House and the presidency, they need to appeal to some minorities and voters with college degrees.