What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?

[Frodo]

The Democratic Party is (and will continue to be) composed of racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants who live primarily in the cities and metropolises surrounding those urban centers, and suburban college-educated whites, retaining just enough of the white working class to ensure political dominance so long as whites retain a majority of the electorate.  It's a working formula for success, especially as the memory of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency (on par with Herbert Hoover) and his slavish congressional Republican enablers remains foremost on the minds of Americans.

Republicans meanwhile endure years wandering about in the political wilderness, having lost the confidence of the American people in their ability to govern responsibly, with only rural and exurban voters buoying them in their traditional political strongholds.  Although as memories of the Trump years gradually fade from public consciousness, they might have a chance in attracting support from up-and-coming minorities as more join the middle class and start to really build up their wealth, and catch up with whites.

Think of your traditional 1950s suburban families (just with darker skin-tones) in stand-alone houses with that nice green lawn, white picket fence, and a shiny brand-new electric Lexus being charged on the driveway.  They will be your political salvation -eventually.  It won't happen overnight, though, so you Republicans will have to follow the example of Democrats in the 1980s for a bit, and find your way as best you can, living in a world defined by a new political paradigm that we shall set, just like we had to do during the Reagan era.

[Frodo]

The Democratic Party is composed traditionally of racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants on the one hand who live primarily in the cities and metropolises surrounding those urban centers, and suburban college-educated whites, retaining just enough of the white working class to ensure political dominance so long as whites retain a majority of the electorate.  It's a working formula for success, especially as the memory of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency (on par with Herbert Hoover) and his slavish congressional Republican enablers remains foremost in the mind of Americans.

Republicans meanwhile endure years wandering about in the political wilderness, having lost the confidence of the American people in their ability to govern responsibly, with only rural and exurban voters buoying them in their traditional political strongholds.  Although as memories of the Trump years gradually fade from public consciousness (give it a few decades), they might have a chance in attracting support from up-and-coming minorities as more join the middle class and start to really build up their wealth and catch up with whites.

Think of your traditional 1950s suburban families in stand-alone houses with that nice green lawn, white picket fence, and a shiny brand-new Lexus resting on the driveway, just with darker skin-tones.  They will be your political salvation -eventually.  It won't happen overnight, though, so you Republicans will have to follow the example of Democrats in the 1980s for a bit, and find your way as best you can, living in a world defined by the parameters we shall set just like we had to do during the Reagan era.    

How I think this could play out: Trump loses this fall. Biden will retire after one term, and his VP (either Harris or Duckworth) will choose a white male VP (Kennedy or Beshear?) and win against Cotton in 2024 and Hawley in 2028. By 2032, the memory of Trump has largely faded, and he may even be dead. That year, the Republicans finally win by nominating a moderate who beats the sitting VP and first got elected as a Governor or Senator in 2022, 2024, 2026 or 2028. Their ticket includes at least one woman or minority. Republicans sweep the Midwest (including Illinois) and the Northeast (with the exceptions of Maryland, Massachusetts and New York), and win the perennial swing states of Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Arizona have turned blue, but Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are tossups.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZPxzJ

Do you think that after being locked out of the White House for twelve years, that Republicans will finally get weaned off of race-baiting as a campaign strategy and tactic?