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October 30, 2020, 02:40:39 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?  (Read 4074 times)
RINO Tom
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Political Matrix
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« on: October 30, 2019, 12:02:56 PM »

The Republican Party will go further down the road of white nationalism, until it is explicitly the party for white christian nationalists and those who love them. They won't be able to win the house or the popular vote, but will remain relevant nationally through the Senate and Electoral College. It will take several significant GOP electoral college loses for the coalitions to change.

History says 4, at MAX, would do it.  You guysí projection of the GOPís ideological journey leads to a party winning like 30% of the popular vote in 20-30 years.  Color me skeptical, regardless of how the GOP looks now or even in a decade.
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RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,645
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2020, 11:03:19 AM »

The resting assumption here seems to be that the GOP won't just *move on* from the effects of Donald Trump right away, in more ways than one; I agree with this.

With that as an assumption, however, this question necessarily becomes a two-parter: 1) What do the parties look like in the next 2-3 elections, were the effects of Donald Trump's Presidency are heavy, and 2) What do the parties look like in the mid-2030s and 2040s once Trump starts to fade a bit more.

For both scenarios, I think an ample comparison would be Trump as the Republican Jimmy Carter, Biden as the 1980 Reagan and Southern Democrats in the 1980s as "college educated White suburban Republicans/independents" today.  There were likely many Democrats who thought winning back "Carter-Reagan voters" was the way to go, and there were likely many Democrats who saw going after "Anderson voters" or whatever as more reliable.  Either way, the GOP was entering a high-water-mark situation that was never going to be sustainable past 3-4 elections, so EVENTUALLY things were going to break.

For the answer to Question 1 ... you're likely looking at it.  The Republicans (i.e., Romney voters) who defected to Hillary are unlikely to return in 2020, and it's actually pretty likely more will defect, also voting Democratic downballot to stop Trump in full.  I would imagine that if Biden is popular in 2024, these voters would stick in his camp and lead to *TRENDS* Smiley accelerating further into the 2024 election.  However, I also think this will coincide with "White working  class" voters shifting toward the Democrats, as well.  We all now seem to think of these "WWC voters" as rural, but they're usually not ... they're people in industrial PA and OH who voted for Obama and were never your rabid right wingers in the first place.  This is to say that the GOP has plenty of a "base" without Romney-Clinton types OR Obama-Trump types, and their time in the wilderness is not likely to include EITHER of these groups loyally sticking with them.  I think this will give Democrats majorities to pass significant legislation to move this country further left economically in the late 2020s and early 2030s, causing the party's popularity to necessarily wane a bit (as all dominant parties usually do), bringing us to Question 2...

... I think around 2032 or 2036, you will see a GOP that has successfully (or, more accurately, NECESSARILY) combined a softer, less offensive tone on cultural issues with a more egalitarian (but not necessarily "populist in rhetoric," like your Hawley types) economic platform to look a lot more like a pre-attention-whoring John Kasich.  In other words, it will be a pro-family, pro-law and order and socially conservative party ... but it won't be perceived as quite as reactionary or offensive to the vast swaths of the electorate that it currently turns off.  Additionally, it will certainly still be a center-right party on economics that largely favors business more than the Democrats ... but it won't be run by the Heritage Foundation and will at least recognize that ANY popular party needs to look out for a majority of Americans' economic interests.  (Sidenote: It's honestly much too hard to say what the parties will be saying about trade at this point ... too many global economic factors will be involved, and anyone who tells you differently probably only looks at trade through an emotional lens.)  I think this will cause the GOP to make slight gains among Hispanic voters (especially more assimilated ones), moderate Asian voters and indeed win back some suburban support.  With ALL of these groups, there will indeed be ceilings, including among White college grads (some are simply going to be loyal to the Democratic Party in the same way that Millennials are today...), and it'll be hard to sketch out what that will look like on the EC map, frankly.

Bottom line, is that I predict we will see current suburban trends accelerate through 2028 or 2032, but I ALSO think GOP trends among "WWC" voters will hit a surprisingly low ceiling, allowing a period of Democratic dominance that is perhaps more fragile than it appears.  Once significant legislation is inevitably passed by this Democratic government, you will see backlash, and the natural area for the GOP to gain back some momentum will be with groups that would otherwise be prone to support right-of-center policies (i.e., socially conservative minorities and well-to-do Whites).

Honestly, though ... go back and read posts from 2004, lol.  Nobody here has a clue.
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