|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 30, 2020, 03:12:57 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?  (Read 4076 times)
Vote with a friend and make it count more
Beef
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,861
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 14, 2019, 01:36:29 PM »

Eventually there will be a "cosmopolitan and corporate" wing of the GOP consisting of urban and coastal elected officials looking to oppose the dominant Democrats. We're already seeing this with the governorships in states like Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont. As demographics cause rural Republicans to shrink in power, this new moderate wing of the GOP will break through and gain a real voice in shaping the national platform.

It will take a while, however.
Logged
AverroŽs Nix
АverroŽs 🦉
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,479
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2019, 08:49:50 AM »

Vermont is neither cosmopolitan, nor corporate, nor urban, nor coastal. Phil Scott is from a town of 9,000 people, drives a race car for fun, and worked for his uncle's construction company until he was elected governor.
Logged
Chocolate Thunder
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,560
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 21, 2019, 01:40:24 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2019, 02:15:49 PM by Edgar Suit Larry »

Vermont is neither cosmopolitan, nor corporate, nor urban, nor coastal. Phil Scott is from a town of 9,000 people, drives a race car for fun, and worked for his uncle's construction company until he was elected governor.
But who REALLY lives in Vermont? But hey. You are the one who lives there.
Logged
Vote with a friend and make it count more
Beef
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,861
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 28, 2019, 02:28:44 PM »

Vermont is neither cosmopolitan, nor corporate, nor urban, nor coastal. Phil Scott is from a town of 9,000 people, drives a race car for fun, and worked for his uncle's construction company until he was elected governor.
But who REALLY lives in Vermont? But hey. You are the one who lives there.

So, Vermont has reverted to Larry, Darryl, and Darryl?
Logged
Vern
vern1988
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,923
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.26, S: -2.43

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2019, 07:56:23 PM »

We will not not because the issues will be different. In 50 years the hot button issue could be : should AI have a right to vote, or should we make the moon station a state. I mean who knows.
Logged
Anarcho-Statism
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,077
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of
Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: 1.22

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2019, 08:34:58 PM »

We will not not because the issues will be different. In 50 years the hot button issue could be : should AI have a right to vote, or should we make the moon station a state. I mean who knows.

Guessing what issues will become hot button is a part of this too. Of course there's black swan events, but there's plenty of things that can be projected forward in time. For example, though fracking has ended all the peak oil apocalypticism of the '00s, we know for a fact oil depletion is coming in the future. From there, we can make educated guesses about when that will happen and when there will be a response, and how that will affect politics at that time.

Best guess, lights-out manufacturing becomes a reality when robot dexterity technology matures in about two decades. Social security will die an agonizing death starting in the 2030s, and a big debate of the following decades will be about how to revive it, what to replace it with, or even if we shouldn't do either. From this, and with America's general economic decline in mind, I can predict that one or both parties will become more statist to address these problems by necessity. In broader terms, the economy will become a hot button issue again.
Logged
slothdem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 360


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2019, 10:56:57 AM »

The Republican Party will go further down the road of white nationalism, until it is explicitly the party for white christian nationalists and those who love them. They won't be able to win the house or the popular vote, but will remain relevant nationally through the Senate and Electoral College. It will take several significant GOP electoral college loses for the coalitions to change.
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,199


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2019, 11:59:53 AM »

The Democrats seem destined to be the party of urban cosmopolitans, minorities, younger voters, the wealthy, and college-educated voters, while Republicans seem destined to be the party of evangelicals, the white working class, and rural voters.

The Reason Dems do very good with college-educated voters has much more to do with the age gap than an education gap.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,645
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2019, 12:02:56 PM »

The Republican Party will go further down the road of white nationalism, until it is explicitly the party for white christian nationalists and those who love them. They won't be able to win the house or the popular vote, but will remain relevant nationally through the Senate and Electoral College. It will take several significant GOP electoral college loses for the coalitions to change.

History says 4, at MAX, would do it.  You guysí projection of the GOPís ideological journey leads to a party winning like 30% of the popular vote in 20-30 years.  Color me skeptical, regardless of how the GOP looks now or even in a decade.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,815
United States


P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2019, 05:45:04 PM »

Republicans continue growing with non-college Whites, but with White voters becoming more educated cycle-after-cycle there's still plenty of room for Democrats to grow in the suburbs.  However, what will eventually break Democrats' advantage in the popular vote will be when Blacks/Latinos in the rural South/West dramatically swing toward the GOP once the Democrats anti-climatically sell-out to the globalists. 
Logged
Laki
Lakigigar
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,009
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 1.91

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2019, 10:59:31 AM »

Too soon to say. I think the elections and events of the 2020s will determine what path the parties go down going forward. I think if someone like Warren wins in 2020, gets re elected, and has two decent terms, the Democrats will return to their populist, New Deal Roots economically, while the GOP moderates socially and serves as a check and balance on the Democratic party economically. If Trump wins in 2020 against Warren or Sanders, the GOP continues down the path it's gone down over the last decade, while the Democrats remain the party of Clintonite politics. If Trump beats Biden or Harris, the GOP stays as is while the Democrats go more left.
I agree, but what if Biden wins. Would there be a lot of opposition as well from inside the party itself?
Logged
Laki
Lakigigar
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,009
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 1.91

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: October 31, 2019, 11:03:13 AM »

The Democrats seem destined to be the party of urban cosmopolitans, minorities, younger voters, the wealthy, and college-educated voters, while Republicans seem destined to be the party of evangelicals, the white working class, and rural voters.
If that happens, they might as well go down the EU far-right route where they turn center-left on economics.
Logged
Chocolate Thunder
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,560
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: October 31, 2019, 11:42:17 AM »

The Democrats seem destined to be the party of urban cosmopolitans, minorities, younger voters, the wealthy, and college-educated voters, while Republicans seem destined to be the party of evangelicals, the white working class, and rural voters.
If that happens, they might as well go down the EU far-right route where they turn center-left on economics.

Basically become stereotypical pre-1960s Democrats?
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 779


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: June 15, 2020, 04:57:38 PM »

What will party ideologies, coalitions, and so on look like in the future? As in, the next party system, and/or a few decades from now.

This views both the Trump era and what comes after it as a wilderness for both parties in America, a strange, transitional time with a lot of fluidity in party platforms. The GOP stabilizes when liberals defect from the Democrats, and position themselves as the ones to restore stability in a shaky mid-21st century economy. They promise a futuristic information economy with insanely low prices due to the costs of manual labor being slashed. The Democrats are seen as radical problem solvers, with the support of people hit hardest by automation and extreme weather patterns (California is a rust belt now). Social security is gone by this time, and some Democrats want to either resurrect it or bring about a social credit system.

I'd #boldly say the Republicans go back to free-ish trade some time after Trump and only occasionally run on overt protectionism (i.e. Bush steel tariffs), keep the anti-interventionism, and get more civic libertarian. If there is war, they support America acting alone for their interests only (Latin America-style engagements). They stay tough on immigration. Domestic oil prospers, keeping them afloat enough in Texas to make it a purple state rather than a blue one- Louisiana is considered an acceptable loss, 50+ electoral votes aren't. They blame America's decline on the welfare state and see automation as a force for good. The state parties differ in their platforms and appeal more to the regional culture, helping the GOP in Congress. Presidential primaries, on the other hand, tend to get more factional. They bounce back in the suburbs and sit somewhere between Romney and Trump in the Rust Belt. Asians vote Republican by about 55%.

The Democrats continue to run up numbers with black Americans and most hispanic groups, to the extent that the Southwest is their core region, and still win white progressives. They support laws requiring that corporations hire a certain percentage of humans, expanding welfare programs, and even universal basic income in the radical faction. The party holds the inner-cities and benefit from an increase in rural minorities. The die-off of boomers helps along in the Deep South. A combination of minority recruitment and inner-church social moderation helps the Democrats make margins closer with Protestants, while the continued shrinking of (white) Catholics leaves more orthodox believers and helps Republicans boost their numbers with that demographic.

Democrats benefit from demographic change at first in the 2020s and 2030s, but Republicans bounce back after rebranding. Basically, the GOP is the liberal party and the Democratic Party is progressive. Europe style.

Maps are welcome!
I disagree 100% with the gop
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 779


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: June 15, 2020, 05:22:46 PM »

I can't believe how many people seriously believe libertarians are going to recapture the GOP after Trump.  A Euro Christian Democrat scenario for the GOP is much more likely, with both parties moving to the center on economics.  The business elite becomes divided by industry and views on trade/globalization as in the late 19th century and no longer systematically favors the GOP (think 55/45 either way depending on economic conditions).  

College grads with incomes below the top 1% ($500Kish per household today) become the new base of the Democratic party.  Democrats can count on at least 70% of the college+ vote and at least 80% of the postgrad vote in a close election by the late 2020's.  The exceptions being managers in manufacturing/resource extraction industries, small business owners, and some who are very religiously devout.

Manufacturing areas of the Midwest and Upper South will eventually deliver similar 70%+ margins to Republicans.  College towns will gradually lose population and political influence with declining birthrates.  This will eventually make New York and Illinois competitive and lock up the rest of the Midwest for Republicans.  Wealthier Boomer retirees in resort areas will be the other component of the Republican base and will eventually lock down Florida.

The Northeast also looks particularly promising for Republicans in the long run.  It will not require that much more white working class support to flip most of New England.  Massachusetts is clearly the most secure Dem state in the long run and Vermont could go either way, but the other states seem ripe for a populist Republican resurgence.

More controversially, I do think post-Trump Republicans will eventually capture >1/3rd of the nonwhite vote.  This will be a significant barrier to Democratic expansion in the South.  Only Georgia and Texas, with very significant Millennial college grad influence, will conclusively flip as Virginia already has.  North Carolina will be closely contested for a long time and eventually develop a mild Dem lean.  The rest of the Deep South will remain strongly Republican for a long time between increasing retiree influence and a slowly growing Republican share of the black vote.  Maryland may eventually be more competitive than Virginia.  

What remains to be seen is how well Republicans can keep agriculture and resource extraction industries in a strongly protectionist coalition when they generally stand to benefit from free trade.  So far, cultural issues and Green New Deal rhetoric are keeping these industries from seriously considering the Dems, but the dam may eventually break.  Between this, the Mormon vote, and the surprisingly strong influence of large cities, the inland West looks like the most fertile ground for Dem expansion down the line.  I expect Democrats to consolidate Colorado and Nevada, flip Arizona, routinely win the Omaha EV, and eventually flip Kansas.  They will eventually be able to get a senate seat or 2 out of the other Plains stats.  Utah should feature many competitive 3 way races going forward.  Alaska and Idaho might get more competitive.  However, I expect the new Republican coalition to gradually gain ground in Oregon, California, and New Mexico after 2020. 

One major unknown is who makes the strongest move on antitrust enforcement and when.  If e.g. a President Warren pursues this aggressively, it could erode the Dem advantage with big tech workers.

This also if say a dem president went hard on big tech where would they go canít see them going to gop
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 779


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: June 15, 2020, 05:24:18 PM »

I can't believe how many people seriously believe libertarians are going to recapture the GOP after Trump.  A Euro Christian Democrat scenario for the GOP is much more likely, with both parties moving to the center on economics.  The business elite becomes divided by industry and views on trade/globalization as in the late 19th century and no longer systematically favors the GOP (think 55/45 either way depending on economic conditions).  

College grads with incomes below the top 1% ($500Kish per household today) become the new base of the Democratic party.  Democrats can count on at least 70% of the college+ vote and at least 80% of the postgrad vote in a close election by the late 2020's.  The exceptions being managers in manufacturing/resource extraction industries, small business owners, and some who are very religiously devout.

Manufacturing areas of the Midwest and Upper South will eventually deliver similar 70%+ margins to Republicans.  College towns will gradually lose population and political influence with declining birthrates.  This will eventually make New York and Illinois competitive and lock up the rest of the Midwest for Republicans.  Wealthier Boomer retirees in resort areas will be the other component of the Republican base and will eventually lock down Florida.

The Northeast also looks particularly promising for Republicans in the long run.  It will not require that much more white working class support to flip most of New England.  Massachusetts is clearly the most secure Dem state in the long run and Vermont could go either way, but the other states seem ripe for a populist Republican resurgence.

More controversially, I do think post-Trump Republicans will eventually capture >1/3rd of the nonwhite vote.  This will be a significant barrier to Democratic expansion in the South.  Only Georgia and Texas, with very significant Millennial college grad influence, will conclusively flip as Virginia already has.  North Carolina will be closely contested for a long time and eventually develop a mild Dem lean.  The rest of the Deep South will remain strongly Republican for a long time between increasing retiree influence and a slowly growing Republican share of the black vote.  Maryland may eventually be more competitive than Virginia.  

What remains to be seen is how well Republicans can keep agriculture and resource extraction industries in a strongly protectionist coalition when they generally stand to benefit from free trade.  So far, cultural issues and Green New Deal rhetoric are keeping these industries from seriously considering the Dems, but the dam may eventually break.  Between this, the Mormon vote, and the surprisingly strong influence of large cities, the inland West looks like the most fertile ground for Dem expansion down the line.  I expect Democrats to consolidate Colorado and Nevada, flip Arizona, routinely win the Omaha EV, and eventually flip Kansas.  They will eventually be able to get a senate seat or 2 out of the other Plains stats.  Utah should feature many competitive 3 way races going forward.  Alaska and Idaho might get more competitive.  However, I expect the new Republican coalition to gradually gain ground in Oregon, California, and New Mexico after 2020. 

One major unknown is who makes the strongest move on antitrust enforcement and when.  If e.g. a President Warren pursues this aggressively, it could erode the Dem advantage with big tech workers.

This also if say a dem president went hard on big tech where would they go canít see them going to gop
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 779


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: June 15, 2020, 05:38:24 PM »

Republicans become much more fiscally left wing, becoming the main party in support of protectionism, and they start to support universal healthcare and related fiscal left wing policies. However they become more reactionary socially.

Democrats stay put as the social liberal party, but fully adopt free trade as a policy. They also become more religious, while the republican party becomes more secular.
Secular, but more reactionary...
arenít their a Quebec political party that is like this?
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 779


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: June 15, 2020, 05:48:08 PM »

Republicans become much more fiscally left wing, becoming the main party in support of protectionism, and they start to support universal healthcare and related fiscal left wing policies. However they become more reactionary socially.

Democrats stay put as the social liberal party, but fully adopt free trade as a policy. They also become more religious, while the republican party becomes more secular.
Secular, but more reactionary...

Yes? Those things are anything but mutually exclusive.

When you say you expect Dems to get more religious, in a Buttigieg Christian left kind of way, or a Marianne Williamson kind of way? 

If the GOP goes full protectionist for good, I  think a lot of the earthy/hippie/spiritual types would eventually end up there and the Dems may (less confident on this, probably depends on abortion eventually being considered settled one way or the other) take on a more vocally Christian wing as they flip more of the South/Southwest?
unless they go libertarian socially only and even then I see them at best gaining ground but not completely.
Logged
MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,682
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: July 04, 2020, 12:09:32 AM »

Will the GOP ever move to the left on social issues (eg: LGBT Rights, Gun Control, Abortion)?

More likely is the Dems come to the right
Logged
dw93
DWL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,560
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: July 04, 2020, 09:56:14 AM »

Will the GOP ever move to the left on social issues (eg: LGBT Rights, Gun Control, Abortion)?

More likely is the Dems come to the right

I doubt it. I think both parties will be forced to move to the center on abortion (moderately pro choice for Dems, moderately pro life for the GOP), but the GOP will be forced to go left on all other issues, including guns.
Logged
Roll Roons
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,987
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: July 04, 2020, 10:17:25 AM »

Will the GOP ever move to the left on social issues (eg: LGBT Rights, Gun Control, Abortion)?

More likely is the Dems come to the right

I doubt it. I think both parties will be forced to move to the center on abortion (moderately pro choice for Dems, moderately pro life for the GOP), but the GOP will be forced to go left on all other issues, including guns.

Not sure about all other issues, but I think it's very likely that Republicans move left on climate change and gay marriage. They wouldn't support a Green New Deal, but would acknowledge that it is very real and that there is a need for action on it. Most young Republicans I know, myself included, support gay marriage, and crusading against it just makes the party look out of touch. What happened to Denver Riggleman was a disgrace.
Logged
Blairite
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,017
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: July 05, 2020, 01:54:20 AM »

Republicans continue growing with non-college Whites, but with White voters becoming more educated cycle-after-cycle there's still plenty of room for Democrats to grow in the suburbs.  However, what will eventually break Democrats' advantage in the popular vote will be when Blacks/Latinos in the rural South/West dramatically swing toward the GOP once the Democrats anti-climatically sell-out to the globalists.  

You really think the next realignment will happen because the Dems sign a free trade deal with India in 2036, causing (presumably depopulated) Yazoo County to swing 25 points to the right, thus somehow transforming the electoral map? Seems flimsy to me.
Logged
jaymichaud
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 956
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 3.10, S: -7.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: July 05, 2020, 11:35:33 AM »

Probably a lot more rigidly sectarian to the level Nothern Irish politics are. The GOP will be the party of Rural voters, older voters, white voters, Christian voters. On the other hand the Dems will be the party of... everyone else. Things are already trending this way.
Logged
Literal Cultural Marxist (Christian)
Battista Minola 1616
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,344
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: July 15, 2020, 08:06:48 AM »

I dislike taking wild guesses like the ones this thread asks, so I will utilize this space to make a consideration about racial and ethnic voting patterns.

Over the long term, which I will define as the last thirty to fourty years roughly, this is what has happened with them:
Non-Hispanic White voters have become clearly more Republican.
Black or African American voters have remained as overwhelmingly Democratic as they were then.
Hispanic or Latino voters have probably become somewhat more Republican.
Asian American voters have become much, much more Democratic.
(I have never seen data for Native Americans or Native Hawaiians but judging from county results they do not seem to have changed politics)

This is an ugly way to put things, but this "racial trade-off" has worked perfectly fine for the Republican Party in the face of the fact that Democratic-leaning minority groups have grown while the Republican-leaning non-Hispanic White majority has shrunk. Why couldn't the path forward for the Grand Old Party be more of the same?
Logged
Anarcho-Statism
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,077
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of
Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: 1.22

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: July 15, 2020, 09:14:28 AM »

I dislike taking wild guesses like the ones this thread asks

Wild guesses are awesome
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 12 queries.