What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?
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  What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?
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Author Topic: What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?  (Read 5869 times)
Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #50 on: July 16, 2020, 04:40:52 AM »
« edited: August 17, 2020, 01:26:20 PM by 𝔅𝔞𝔭𝔱𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔞 𝔐𝔦𝔫𝔬𝔩𝔞 »

Over the long term, which I will define as the last thirty to fourty years roughly, this is what has happened with them:
Non-Hispanic White voters have become clearly more Republican.
Black or African American voters have remained as overwhelmingly Democratic as they were then.
Hispanic or Latino voters have probably become somewhat more Republican.
Asian American voters have become much, much more Democratic.
(I have never seen data for Native Americans or Native Hawaiians but judging from county results they do not seem to have changed politics)

This is an ugly way to put things, but this "racial trade-off" has worked perfectly fine for the Republican Party in the face of the fact that Democratic-leaning minority groups have grown while the Republican-leaning non-Hispanic White majority has shrunk. Why couldn't the path forward for the Grand Old Party be more of the same?

The percentage of Latino + AAPI voters has increased drastically in the last 30 years, from 4-5% in 1988 to 18% in 2020. Asian voters "trending Dem" has mostly been due to 1) demographic replacement as new immigrants arrive in a different political climate + 2) generational replacement as the children of post-1965 immigrants have come of age. The Non-Hispanic White vote has trended Republican while the NHW % of the electorate has gone down.

I know.
I also believe that Republicans are continuously making some gains with children and grandchildren of previous Hispanic immigrants that are more or less offset by new Hispanic immigrants voting very strongly Democratic.
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Frodo
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« Reply #51 on: July 21, 2020, 10:42:45 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2020, 10:45:47 PM by Virginia Yellow Dog »

The Democratic Party is (and will continue to be) composed of racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants who live primarily in the cities and metropolises surrounding those urban centers, and suburban college-educated whites, retaining just enough of the white working class to ensure political dominance so long as whites retain a majority of the electorate.  It's a working formula for success, especially as the memory of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency (on par with Herbert Hoover) and his slavish congressional Republican enablers remains foremost on the minds of Americans.

Republicans meanwhile endure years wandering about in the political wilderness, having lost the confidence of the American people in their ability to govern responsibly, with only rural and exurban voters buoying them in their traditional political strongholds.  Although as memories of the Trump years gradually fade from public consciousness, they might have a chance in attracting support from up-and-coming minorities as more join the middle class and start to really build up their wealth, and catch up with whites.

Think of your traditional 1950s suburban families (just with darker skin-tones) in stand-alone houses with that nice green lawn, white picket fence, and a shiny brand-new electric Lexus being charged on the driveway.  They will be your political salvation -eventually.  It won't happen overnight, though, so you Republicans will have to follow the example of Democrats in the 1980s for a bit, and find your way as best you can, living in a world defined by a new political paradigm that we shall set, just like we had to do during the Reagan era.
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« Reply #52 on: July 21, 2020, 10:52:48 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2020, 11:05:39 PM by Roll Roons »

The Democratic Party is composed traditionally of racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants on the one hand who live primarily in the cities and metropolises surrounding those urban centers, and suburban college-educated whites, retaining just enough of the white working class to ensure political dominance so long as whites retain a majority of the electorate.  It's a working formula for success, especially as the memory of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency (on par with Herbert Hoover) and his slavish congressional Republican enablers remains foremost in the mind of Americans.

Republicans meanwhile endure years wandering about in the political wilderness, having lost the confidence of the American people in their ability to govern responsibly, with only rural and exurban voters buoying them in their traditional political strongholds.  Although as memories of the Trump years gradually fade from public consciousness (give it a few decades), they might have a chance in attracting support from up-and-coming minorities as more join the middle class and start to really build up their wealth and catch up with whites.

Think of your traditional 1950s suburban families in stand-alone houses with that nice green lawn, white picket fence, and a shiny brand-new Lexus resting on the driveway, just with darker skin-tones.  They will be your political salvation -eventually.  It won't happen overnight, though, so you Republicans will have to follow the example of Democrats in the 1980s for a bit, and find your way as best you can, living in a world defined by the parameters we shall set just like we had to do during the Reagan era.   

How I think this could play out: Trump loses this fall. Biden will retire after one term, and his VP (either Harris or Duckworth) will choose a white male VP (Kennedy or Beshear?) and win against Cotton in 2024 and Hawley in 2028. By 2032, the memory of Trump has largely faded, and he may even be dead. That year, the Republicans finally win by nominating a moderate who beats the sitting VP and first got elected as a Governor or Senator in 2022, 2024, 2026 or 2028. Their ticket includes at least one woman or minority. Republicans sweep the Midwest (including Illinois) and the Northeast (with the exceptions of Maryland, Massachusetts and New York), and win the perennial swing states of Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Arizona have turned blue, but Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are tossups.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZPxzJ
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #53 on: July 22, 2020, 06:26:30 AM »

The Democratic Party is composed traditionally of racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants on the one hand who live primarily in the cities and metropolises surrounding those urban centers, and suburban college-educated whites, retaining just enough of the white working class to ensure political dominance so long as whites retain a majority of the electorate.  It's a working formula for success, especially as the memory of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency (on par with Herbert Hoover) and his slavish congressional Republican enablers remains foremost in the mind of Americans.

Republicans meanwhile endure years wandering about in the political wilderness, having lost the confidence of the American people in their ability to govern responsibly, with only rural and exurban voters buoying them in their traditional political strongholds.  Although as memories of the Trump years gradually fade from public consciousness (give it a few decades), they might have a chance in attracting support from up-and-coming minorities as more join the middle class and start to really build up their wealth and catch up with whites.

Think of your traditional 1950s suburban families in stand-alone houses with that nice green lawn, white picket fence, and a shiny brand-new Lexus resting on the driveway, just with darker skin-tones.  They will be your political salvation -eventually.  It won't happen overnight, though, so you Republicans will have to follow the example of Democrats in the 1980s for a bit, and find your way as best you can, living in a world defined by the parameters we shall set just like we had to do during the Reagan era.   

How I think this could play out: Trump loses this fall. Biden will retire after one term, and his VP (either Harris or Duckworth) will choose a white male VP (Kennedy or Beshear?) and win against Cotton in 2024 and Hawley in 2028. By 2032, the memory of Trump has largely faded, and he may even be dead. That year, the Republicans finally win by nominating a moderate who beats the sitting VP and first got elected as a Governor or Senator in 2022, 2024, 2026 or 2028. Their ticket includes at least one woman or minority. Republicans sweep the Midwest (including Illinois) and the Northeast (with the exceptions of Maryland, Massachusetts and New York), and win the perennial swing states of Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Arizona have turned blue, but Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are tossups.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZPxzJ

So Chicago crashes within twelve years? Good.
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« Reply #54 on: July 22, 2020, 08:08:21 AM »

The Democratic Party is composed traditionally of racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants on the one hand who live primarily in the cities and metropolises surrounding those urban centers, and suburban college-educated whites, retaining just enough of the white working class to ensure political dominance so long as whites retain a majority of the electorate.  It's a working formula for success, especially as the memory of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency (on par with Herbert Hoover) and his slavish congressional Republican enablers remains foremost in the mind of Americans.

Republicans meanwhile endure years wandering about in the political wilderness, having lost the confidence of the American people in their ability to govern responsibly, with only rural and exurban voters buoying them in their traditional political strongholds.  Although as memories of the Trump years gradually fade from public consciousness (give it a few decades), they might have a chance in attracting support from up-and-coming minorities as more join the middle class and start to really build up their wealth and catch up with whites.

Think of your traditional 1950s suburban families in stand-alone houses with that nice green lawn, white picket fence, and a shiny brand-new Lexus resting on the driveway, just with darker skin-tones.  They will be your political salvation -eventually.  It won't happen overnight, though, so you Republicans will have to follow the example of Democrats in the 1980s for a bit, and find your way as best you can, living in a world defined by the parameters we shall set just like we had to do during the Reagan era.   

How I think this could play out: Trump loses this fall. Biden will retire after one term, and his VP (either Harris or Duckworth) will choose a white male VP (Kennedy or Beshear?) and win against Cotton in 2024 and Hawley in 2028. By 2032, the memory of Trump has largely faded, and he may even be dead. That year, the Republicans finally win by nominating a moderate who beats the sitting VP and first got elected as a Governor or Senator in 2022, 2024, 2026 or 2028. Their ticket includes at least one woman or minority. Republicans sweep the Midwest (including Illinois) and the Northeast (with the exceptions of Maryland, Massachusetts and New York), and win the perennial swing states of Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Arizona have turned blue, but Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are tossups.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZPxzJ

So Chicago crashes within twelve years? Good.

I don't care what people think. I liked living in Chicago and was there until they wanted me to live in suburban Connecticut. It was fun and nice there even on Florida pay ($85k).
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« Reply #55 on: July 22, 2020, 08:47:00 AM »

It's difficult to predict where the GOP will go, but I think the Democratic party will continue it's current trajectory of neoliberal economic policies favored by their new base of UMC degree holders and social liberalism favored by their old base of younger and diverse working classes and students.  

The likeliest path for the GOP is to get lost in the wilderness after losing 2020 and 2024, which I'd obviously like to avoid.  It needs to simultaneously become more pro-worker/skeptical of corporate powers, address student debt, climate change and cost of living in urban/suburban areas, while remaining hawkish on immigration and geopolitics (China) if it wants to remain relevant.  Considering Ronna McDaniel is retaining the GOP's 2016 platform for 2020, I don't have much faith in the party leadership to read tea leaves and adopt to a changing world.


How I think this could play out: Trump loses this fall. Biden will retire after one term, and his VP (either Harris or Duckworth) will choose a white male VP (Kennedy or Beshear?) and win against Cotton in 2024 and Hawley in 2028. By 2032, the memory of Trump has largely faded, and he may even be dead. That year, the Republicans finally win by nominating a moderate who beats the sitting VP and first got elected as a Governor or Senator in 2022, 2024, 2026 or 2028. Their ticket includes at least one woman or minority. Republicans sweep the Midwest (including Illinois) and the Northeast (with the exceptions of Maryland, Massachusetts and New York), and win the perennial swing states of Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Arizona have turned blue, but Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are tossups.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZPxzJ

Well, even if the GOP does quite well in 2032 due to 12 years of Democratic leadership, Illinois and New Jersey will still be blue.  Optimistically I could see RI, CT and VT coming within 5 points and NJ within 5-10 points, but Illinois is going nowhere.  It will be much easier to keep Texas/Minnesota/North Carolina competitive.
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Tiger08
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« Reply #56 on: July 22, 2020, 10:26:13 AM »

It's difficult to predict where the GOP will go, but I think the Democratic party will continue it's current trajectory of neoliberal economic policies favored by their new base of UMC degree holders and social liberalism favored by their old base of younger and diverse working classes and students.  

The likeliest path for the GOP is to get lost in the wilderness after losing 2020 and 2024, which I'd obviously like to avoid.  It needs to simultaneously become more pro-worker/skeptical of corporate powers, address student debt, climate change and cost of living in urban/suburban areas, while remaining hawkish on immigration and geopolitics (China) if it wants to remain relevant.  Considering Ronna McDaniel is retaining the GOP's 2016 platform for 2020, I don't have much faith in the party leadership to read tea leaves and adopt to a changing world.


I agree with pretty much everything you said. In addition to that, GOP might need to slightly moderate on immigration (pro-DACA, and if the border gets secured at some point then pro-pathway AFTER the border is strongly secured. Some exit polling bears that out) and racial issues. They should definitely not take the 1619 Project/the BLM organization route but acknowledging that racism is still a current problem, more criminal justice reform for nonviolent offenses, stopping the Confederate flag stuff, and stating that Black Lives Matter (while not endorsing the organization's platform) may help. GOP should remain the more vocally patriotic party though. Going libertarian (but not progressive) on most non-abortion social issues would probably do the best job of appealing to new voters while not losing their current socially conservative base. Economically, be anti-socialism/Medicare for All/Green New Deal/massive tax increases but doctrinaire fiscal conservatism is politically and practically infeasible. Be more open to infrastructure spending and maybe a basic public option for those who absolutely need it. Party's base would probably be working-to-middle class and somewhat more diverse than it is now.

Democrats will become the party of the upper middle class (outside of some ruby red GOP Southern and Midwestern suburbs) and poor, uniformly socially progressive (some more socially moderate and not as "woke" Black and Hispanic voters would go to the GOP in this scenario). Will maintain huge margins among Millennials and college educated white women. Candidates with Pete Buttigieg-esque politics (but with more non-white appeal) will be the norm. There will be a growing DSA-eque wing though, especially in very blue cities and college towns.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #57 on: July 22, 2020, 11:03:19 AM »

The resting assumption here seems to be that the GOP won't just *move on* from the effects of Donald Trump right away, in more ways than one; I agree with this.

With that as an assumption, however, this question necessarily becomes a two-parter: 1) What do the parties look like in the next 2-3 elections, were the effects of Donald Trump's Presidency are heavy, and 2) What do the parties look like in the mid-2030s and 2040s once Trump starts to fade a bit more.

For both scenarios, I think an ample comparison would be Trump as the Republican Jimmy Carter, Biden as the 1980 Reagan and Southern Democrats in the 1980s as "college educated White suburban Republicans/independents" today.  There were likely many Democrats who thought winning back "Carter-Reagan voters" was the way to go, and there were likely many Democrats who saw going after "Anderson voters" or whatever as more reliable.  Either way, the GOP was entering a high-water-mark situation that was never going to be sustainable past 3-4 elections, so EVENTUALLY things were going to break.

For the answer to Question 1 ... you're likely looking at it.  The Republicans (i.e., Romney voters) who defected to Hillary are unlikely to return in 2020, and it's actually pretty likely more will defect, also voting Democratic downballot to stop Trump in full.  I would imagine that if Biden is popular in 2024, these voters would stick in his camp and lead to *TRENDS* Smiley accelerating further into the 2024 election.  However, I also think this will coincide with "White working  class" voters shifting toward the Democrats, as well.  We all now seem to think of these "WWC voters" as rural, but they're usually not ... they're people in industrial PA and OH who voted for Obama and were never your rabid right wingers in the first place.  This is to say that the GOP has plenty of a "base" without Romney-Clinton types OR Obama-Trump types, and their time in the wilderness is not likely to include EITHER of these groups loyally sticking with them.  I think this will give Democrats majorities to pass significant legislation to move this country further left economically in the late 2020s and early 2030s, causing the party's popularity to necessarily wane a bit (as all dominant parties usually do), bringing us to Question 2...

... I think around 2032 or 2036, you will see a GOP that has successfully (or, more accurately, NECESSARILY) combined a softer, less offensive tone on cultural issues with a more egalitarian (but not necessarily "populist in rhetoric," like your Hawley types) economic platform to look a lot more like a pre-attention-whoring John Kasich.  In other words, it will be a pro-family, pro-law and order and socially conservative party ... but it won't be perceived as quite as reactionary or offensive to the vast swaths of the electorate that it currently turns off.  Additionally, it will certainly still be a center-right party on economics that largely favors business more than the Democrats ... but it won't be run by the Heritage Foundation and will at least recognize that ANY popular party needs to look out for a majority of Americans' economic interests.  (Sidenote: It's honestly much too hard to say what the parties will be saying about trade at this point ... too many global economic factors will be involved, and anyone who tells you differently probably only looks at trade through an emotional lens.)  I think this will cause the GOP to make slight gains among Hispanic voters (especially more assimilated ones), moderate Asian voters and indeed win back some suburban support.  With ALL of these groups, there will indeed be ceilings, including among White college grads (some are simply going to be loyal to the Democratic Party in the same way that Millennials are today...), and it'll be hard to sketch out what that will look like on the EC map, frankly.

Bottom line, is that I predict we will see current suburban trends accelerate through 2028 or 2032, but I ALSO think GOP trends among "WWC" voters will hit a surprisingly low ceiling, allowing a period of Democratic dominance that is perhaps more fragile than it appears.  Once significant legislation is inevitably passed by this Democratic government, you will see backlash, and the natural area for the GOP to gain back some momentum will be with groups that would otherwise be prone to support right-of-center policies (i.e., socially conservative minorities and well-to-do Whites).

Honestly, though ... go back and read posts from 2004, lol.  Nobody here has a clue.
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« Reply #58 on: July 22, 2020, 09:48:52 PM »

The resting assumption here seems to be that the GOP won't just *move on* from the effects of Donald Trump right away, in more ways than one; I agree with this.

With that as an assumption, however, this question necessarily becomes a two-parter: 1) What do the parties look like in the next 2-3 elections, were the effects of Donald Trump's Presidency are heavy, and 2) What do the parties look like in the mid-2030s and 2040s once Trump starts to fade a bit more.

For both scenarios, I think an ample comparison would be Trump as the Republican Jimmy Carter, Biden as the 1980 Reagan and Southern Democrats in the 1980s as "college educated White suburban Republicans/independents" today.  There were likely many Democrats who thought winning back "Carter-Reagan voters" was the way to go, and there were likely many Democrats who saw going after "Anderson voters" or whatever as more reliable.  Either way, the GOP was entering a high-water-mark situation that was never going to be sustainable past 3-4 elections, so EVENTUALLY things were going to break.

For the answer to Question 1 ... you're likely looking at it.  The Republicans (i.e., Romney voters) who defected to Hillary are unlikely to return in 2020, and it's actually pretty likely more will defect, also voting Democratic downballot to stop Trump in full.  I would imagine that if Biden is popular in 2024, these voters would stick in his camp and lead to *TRENDS* Smiley accelerating further into the 2024 election.  However, I also think this will coincide with "White working  class" voters shifting toward the Democrats, as well.  We all now seem to think of these "WWC voters" as rural, but they're usually not ... they're people in industrial PA and OH who voted for Obama and were never your rabid right wingers in the first place.  This is to say that the GOP has plenty of a "base" without Romney-Clinton types OR Obama-Trump types, and their time in the wilderness is not likely to include EITHER of these groups loyally sticking with them.  I think this will give Democrats majorities to pass significant legislation to move this country further left economically in the late 2020s and early 2030s, causing the party's popularity to necessarily wane a bit (as all dominant parties usually do), bringing us to Question 2...

... I think around 2032 or 2036, you will see a GOP that has successfully (or, more accurately, NECESSARILY) combined a softer, less offensive tone on cultural issues with a more egalitarian (but not necessarily "populist in rhetoric," like your Hawley types) economic platform to look a lot more like a pre-attention-whoring John Kasich.  In other words, it will be a pro-family, pro-law and order and socially conservative party ... but it won't be perceived as quite as reactionary or offensive to the vast swaths of the electorate that it currently turns off.  Additionally, it will certainly still be a center-right party on economics that largely favors business more than the Democrats ... but it won't be run by the Heritage Foundation and will at least recognize that ANY popular party needs to look out for a majority of Americans' economic interests.  (Sidenote: It's honestly much too hard to say what the parties will be saying about trade at this point ... too many global economic factors will be involved, and anyone who tells you differently probably only looks at trade through an emotional lens.)  I think this will cause the GOP to make slight gains among Hispanic voters (especially more assimilated ones), moderate Asian voters and indeed win back some suburban support.  With ALL of these groups, there will indeed be ceilings, including among White college grads (some are simply going to be loyal to the Democratic Party in the same way that Millennials are today...), and it'll be hard to sketch out what that will look like on the EC map, frankly.

Bottom line, is that I predict we will see current suburban trends accelerate through 2028 or 2032, but I ALSO think GOP trends among "WWC" voters will hit a surprisingly low ceiling, allowing a period of Democratic dominance that is perhaps more fragile than it appears.  Once significant legislation is inevitably passed by this Democratic government, you will see backlash, and the natural area for the GOP to gain back some momentum will be with groups that would otherwise be prone to support right-of-center policies (i.e., socially conservative minorities and well-to-do Whites).

Honestly, though ... go back and read posts from 2004, lol.  Nobody here has a clue.
This is all predicated on Trump losing. However, I don't expect Trump's 2nd to be any better than his first. I can see him losing Congress over the unrest intensifying and his economic mismanagement catching up to him by the end. It would still put us in the same boat for your predictions minus one Biden term. But what he keeps at least the Senate or someone else wins a third term?
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #59 on: July 23, 2020, 05:28:32 AM »

In terms of talk of a ‘permanent Democratic majority’, it probably is unlikely, considering no party has held the White House for more than three terms since FDR and Truman, but it is not impossible. Looking at recent history, it is easy to think that the parties always balance out even if one is defeated in a landslide, producing two roughly even coalitions. However, this has only fairly recently become the case. The GOP was completely dominant from 1860-1932, because the country was polarised along sectional/ethnoreligious lines, and the GOP’s base, northern Protestants, were a clear majority of the electorate.

 I don’t think we’re going to enter a period of Democratic dominance akin to that, but America is at its most polarised since the Gilded Age. History teaches us that it is possible for one party to alienate such a swathe of the electorate to put them into long-term opposition. It has happened twice: after the Civil War and ‘Rum, Romanism and Rebellion’, and after the New Deal. It is conceivable the Trump administration could have the same effect, tarnishing the GOP brand for the rest of a large number of voters’ lives among many minorities, educated voters, younger voters and women.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #60 on: July 23, 2020, 06:24:02 AM »

In terms of talk of a ‘permanent Democratic majority’, it probably is unlikely, considering no party has held the White House for more than three terms since FDR and Truman, but it is not impossible. Looking at recent history, it is easy to think that the parties always balance out even if one is defeated in a landslide, producing two roughly even coalitions. However, this has only fairly recently become the case. The GOP was completely dominant from 1860-1932, because the country was polarised along sectional/ethnoreligious lines, and the GOP’s base, northern Protestants, were a clear majority of the electorate.

 I don’t think we’re going to enter a period of Democratic dominance akin to that, but America is at its most polarised since the Gilded Age. History teaches us that it is possible for one party to alienate such a swathe of the electorate to put them into long-term opposition. It has happened twice: after the Civil War and ‘Rum, Romanism and Rebellion’, and after the New Deal. It is conceivable the Trump administration could have the same effect, tarnishing the GOP brand for the rest of a large number of voters’ lives among many minorities, educated voters, younger voters and women.

Well the most one of the two current major parties has controlled the White House ininterruptly is 20 years (1933 - 1953). During that period Republicans were almost completely wiped out at one point and gained back both houses of Congress within ten years. In the Gilded Age the Republicans were dominant, true, but Democrats won the White House sometimes, controlled very easily 45% of the national vote, and controlled the House of Represenatives frequently. My bar for the expression "long-term opposition" is high.
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« Reply #61 on: August 16, 2020, 05:57:59 PM »

The Democratic Party is composed traditionally of racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants on the one hand who live primarily in the cities and metropolises surrounding those urban centers, and suburban college-educated whites, retaining just enough of the white working class to ensure political dominance so long as whites retain a majority of the electorate.  It's a working formula for success, especially as the memory of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency (on par with Herbert Hoover) and his slavish congressional Republican enablers remains foremost in the mind of Americans.

Republicans meanwhile endure years wandering about in the political wilderness, having lost the confidence of the American people in their ability to govern responsibly, with only rural and exurban voters buoying them in their traditional political strongholds.  Although as memories of the Trump years gradually fade from public consciousness (give it a few decades), they might have a chance in attracting support from up-and-coming minorities as more join the middle class and start to really build up their wealth and catch up with whites.

Think of your traditional 1950s suburban families in stand-alone houses with that nice green lawn, white picket fence, and a shiny brand-new Lexus resting on the driveway, just with darker skin-tones.  They will be your political salvation -eventually.  It won't happen overnight, though, so you Republicans will have to follow the example of Democrats in the 1980s for a bit, and find your way as best you can, living in a world defined by the parameters we shall set just like we had to do during the Reagan era.    

How I think this could play out: Trump loses this fall. Biden will retire after one term, and his VP (either Harris or Duckworth) will choose a white male VP (Kennedy or Beshear?) and win against Cotton in 2024 and Hawley in 2028. By 2032, the memory of Trump has largely faded, and he may even be dead. That year, the Republicans finally win by nominating a moderate who beats the sitting VP and first got elected as a Governor or Senator in 2022, 2024, 2026 or 2028. Their ticket includes at least one woman or minority. Republicans sweep the Midwest (including Illinois) and the Northeast (with the exceptions of Maryland, Massachusetts and New York), and win the perennial swing states of Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Arizona have turned blue, but Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are tossups.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZPxzJ

Do you think that after being locked out of the White House for twelve years, that Republicans will finally get weaned off of race-baiting as a campaign strategy and tactic?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #62 on: August 16, 2020, 06:03:34 PM »

The Democratic Party is composed traditionally of racial/ethnic minorities and immigrants on the one hand who live primarily in the cities and metropolises surrounding those urban centers, and suburban college-educated whites, retaining just enough of the white working class to ensure political dominance so long as whites retain a majority of the electorate.  It's a working formula for success, especially as the memory of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency (on par with Herbert Hoover) and his slavish congressional Republican enablers remains foremost in the mind of Americans.

Republicans meanwhile endure years wandering about in the political wilderness, having lost the confidence of the American people in their ability to govern responsibly, with only rural and exurban voters buoying them in their traditional political strongholds.  Although as memories of the Trump years gradually fade from public consciousness (give it a few decades), they might have a chance in attracting support from up-and-coming minorities as more join the middle class and start to really build up their wealth and catch up with whites.

Think of your traditional 1950s suburban families in stand-alone houses with that nice green lawn, white picket fence, and a shiny brand-new Lexus resting on the driveway, just with darker skin-tones.  They will be your political salvation -eventually.  It won't happen overnight, though, so you Republicans will have to follow the example of Democrats in the 1980s for a bit, and find your way as best you can, living in a world defined by the parameters we shall set just like we had to do during the Reagan era.   

How I think this could play out: Trump loses this fall. Biden will retire after one term, and his VP (either Harris or Duckworth) will choose a white male VP (Kennedy or Beshear?) and win against Cotton in 2024 and Hawley in 2028. By 2032, the memory of Trump has largely faded, and he may even be dead. That year, the Republicans finally win by nominating a moderate who beats the sitting VP and first got elected as a Governor or Senator in 2022, 2024, 2026 or 2028. Their ticket includes at least one woman or minority. Republicans sweep the Midwest (including Illinois) and the Northeast (with the exceptions of Maryland, Massachusetts and New York), and win the perennial swing states of Florida and North Carolina. Georgia and Arizona have turned blue, but Texas, New Mexico and Nevada are tossups.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZPxzJ

Do you think that after being locked out of the White House for twelve years, that Republicans will finally get weaned off of race-baiting as a campaign strategy?

They would have no choice. Relying on the resentment of angry old white men is not sustainable. Unless they want to be permanently locked out of the House and the presidency, they need to appeal to some minorities and voters with college degrees.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #63 on: August 21, 2020, 10:55:29 PM »

Democrats move more progressive over time, but not to the extent of AOC. More of a Brian Schatz/Kamala Harris type of progressive.

Republicans become even further right after Trump. They become the party of QAnon.
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