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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  If Trump is re-elected, who are most likely 2024 Democratic and Republican Nominees?
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Author Topic: If Trump is re-elected, who are most likely 2024 Democratic and Republican Nominees?  (Read 561 times)
Fwillb21
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« on: August 15, 2020, 06:14:14 pm »

Not sure about Dems, but for GOP I always hear about Trump Jr, Nikki Haley, and Pence.
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Heebie Jeebie
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« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2020, 06:17:19 pm »

For Democrats, it would obviously be Harris.  For Republicans, whoever is seen as most like Trump.
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KhanOfKhans
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« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2020, 06:17:53 pm »

I think Warren would be the favorite for the Dem nomination. She came relatively close this year, and with Bernie not in the race, she would have the progressive lane locked down. She also has solid support among moderates and more establishment-types that could carry her to the nomination pretty easily. She would then thrash the GOP nominee, probably Pence.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2020, 06:27:25 pm »
« Edited: August 15, 2020, 06:32:32 pm by Alben Barkley »

For Democrats, it would obviously be Harris.  For Republicans, whoever is seen as most like Trump.

Why would it obviously be Harris if Trump wins? Running mates on losing tickets rarely go on to be the nominee. After all, did Kaine, Ryan, Palin, Edwards, Lieberman, Kemp, etc. ever end up at the top of the ticket? The last time that happened was Walter Mondale*, who had been VP for one term at least, and was of course destroyed. FDR is the one real notable exception, who as far as I know was the only candidate to be the running mate on a ticket that lost (badly at that) but went on to win himself (in a landslide at that). But that was a very different time, obviously.

*Actually I guess Dole counts too, as he was Ford’s running mate. But that wasn’t until 20 years later, and of course he didn’t fare much better than Mondale.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2020, 06:30:39 pm »
« Edited: August 15, 2020, 06:45:46 pm by Alben Barkley »

I think Warren would be the favorite for the Dem nomination. She came relatively close this year, and with Bernie not in the race, she would have the progressive lane locked down. She also has solid support among moderates and more establishment-types that could carry her to the nomination pretty easily. She would then thrash the GOP nominee, probably Pence.

Warren will be old though. Biden obviously is now, but if he loses people will probably be hesitant about nominating another candidate in their mid to upper 70s.

To be honest I can see AOC locking down the progressive base as Bernie’s successor instead, and she’ll have the young blood argument.

I wish there was more young blood with a high national profile on the more moderate Dem wing too, but there isn’t as much. Perhaps Andy Beshear? Obviously I’m biased but I definitely would support him. Roy Cooper will also likely be a two term governor of a purple state on his way out then, and neither too old nor too young. Kyrsten Sinema is another option if Dems really want to move back to the center in response to the loss, Bill Clinton style. Young, moderate, purple state, etc. Or maybe someone like Gretchen Whitmer, Tammy Baldwin, or Sherrod Brown if we need to win the rust belt again.

Honestly it all depends on why Biden lost, or why he is perceived to have at least. Did he have a series of infamous “senior moments” that made voters doubt his competence? If so, an old candidate is probably out. Was he successfully portrayed by Trump as too far left? If so, a more moderate candidate is more likely to be the nominee. Was he seen instead as too centrist/moderate? If so, progressives have a better chance (and will be arguing it’s their turn anyway after they lost two primaries in a row only for the mainstream Dem to lose to Trump).

WHERE he lost matters too. Did he manage to win back MI/PA, only narrowly lose WI (or even flip it but lose NV/NH or something), but lose everything else? Did he manage to flip AZ, even NC or GA, get close in FL/TX, but still lose the whole rust belt? That will determine our strategy going forward — whether it’s seen as more viable to go all in on the sun belt states trending our way and ditch the rust belt, or if it’s still worth trying to hold on to the rust belt.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2020, 06:45:54 pm »

Warren vs. Pence.

Warren would probably be the hugest force in the Democratic primary, & I can't imagine who'd be able to successfully run against her. Bernie won't run so she'll probably inherit the progressive wing from him, in addition to a good chunk of moderates as well, given the make-up of her voter base this year. Harris would surely run again, but in addition to probably being tainted by the 2020 ticket's loss, she may not be as well-liked &/or seen as charismatic by as much of the party's base as Warren is. Yang would probably run again, & Governors like Cuomo, Newsom, &/or Inslee would probably all run too, but who knows how popular they'd be? Not to mention, with a 2nd Trump term, the party will have likely moved even further left by 2024.

As for the GOP, they nominate Pence as a sacrificial lamb (because there's no way the GOP wins a 3rd term after 8 years of Trump), & most other significant potential candidates would wait for 2028.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2020, 06:56:33 pm »

Warren vs. Pence.

Warren would probably be the hugest force in the Democratic primary, & I can't imagine who'd be able to successfully run against her. Bernie won't run so she'll probably inherit the progressive wing from him, in addition to a good chunk of moderates as well, given the make-up of her voter base this year. Harris would surely run again, but in addition to probably being tainted by the 2020 ticket's loss, she may not be as well-liked &/or seen as charismatic by as much of the party's base as Warren is. Yang would probably run again, & Governors like Cuomo, Newsom, &/or Inslee would probably all run too, but who knows how popular they'd be? Not to mention, with a 2nd Trump term, the party will have likely moved even further left by 2024.

As for the GOP, they nominate Pence as a sacrificial lamb (because there's no way the GOP wins a 3rd term after 8 years of Trump), & most other significant potential candidates would wait for 2028.

If he’s still remembered fondly for it, Cuomo might be able to ride his COVID popularity to the nomination. Then again, Giuliani tried something like that in 2008 and that didn’t work out for him too well. Newsom might be a good candidate though. I still think some of the dark horses I mentioned would be viable, among others. I certainly don’t think Warren would have it locked up. Due to her age, her failed campaign this year, likely challenges from the left such as AOC, and possibly other factors that depend in part on why exactly Biden lost and what the state of the party is in 2024. We’d probably have another fairly open field like this year, but maybe more likely a dark horse emerges kinda like Carter in 1976. The party will certainly be divided on just how we managed to lose twice to the worst candidate in history and what needs to be done to correct course.
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Fwillb21
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« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2020, 07:02:39 pm »

As for her running mate, top contenders would likely be Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Andrew Yang, and Andrew Gillum.

Warren vs. Pence.

Warren would probably be the hugest force in the Democratic primary, & I can't imagine who'd be able to successfully run against her. Bernie won't run so she'll probably inherit the progressive wing from him, in addition to a good chunk of moderates as well, given the make-up of her voter base this year. Harris would surely run again, but in addition to probably being tainted by the 2020 ticket's loss, she may not be as well-liked &/or seen as charismatic by as much of the party's base as Warren is. Yang would probably run again, & Governors like Cuomo, Newsom, &/or Inslee would probably all run too, but who knows how popular they'd be? Not to mention, with a 2nd Trump term, the party will have likely moved even further left by 2024.

As for the GOP, they nominate Pence as a sacrificial lamb (because there's no way the GOP wins a 3rd term after 8 years of Trump), & most other significant potential candidates would wait for 2028.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2020, 07:18:20 pm »

Warren vs. Pence.

Warren would probably be the hugest force in the Democratic primary, & I can't imagine who'd be able to successfully run against her. Bernie won't run so she'll probably inherit the progressive wing from him, in addition to a good chunk of moderates as well, given the make-up of her voter base this year. Harris would surely run again, but in addition to probably being tainted by the 2020 ticket's loss, she may not be as well-liked &/or seen as charismatic by as much of the party's base as Warren is. Yang would probably run again, & Governors like Cuomo, Newsom, &/or Inslee would probably all run too, but who knows how popular they'd be? Not to mention, with a 2nd Trump term, the party will have likely moved even further left by 2024.

As for the GOP, they nominate Pence as a sacrificial lamb (because there's no way the GOP wins a 3rd term after 8 years of Trump), & most other significant potential candidates would wait for 2028.

If he’s still remembered fondly for it, Cuomo might be able to ride his COVID popularity to the nomination. Then again, Giuliani tried something like that in 2008 and that didn’t work out for him too well. Newsom might be a good candidate though. I still think some of the dark horses I mentioned would be viable, among others. I certainly don’t think Warren would have it locked up. Due to her age, her failed campaign this year, likely challenges from the left such as AOC, and possibly other factors that depend in part on why exactly Biden lost and what the state of the party is in 2024. We’d probably have another fairly open field like this year, but maybe more likely a dark horse emerges kinda like Carter in 1976. The party will certainly be divided on just how we managed to lose twice to the worst candidate in history and what needs to be done to correct course.

A noun, a verb, & COVID-19? Tongue


As for her running mate, top contenders would likely be Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Andrew Yang, and Andrew Gillum.

It wouldn't be Gillum.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2020, 09:08:43 pm »

Warren vs. Pence.

Warren would probably be the hugest force in the Democratic primary, & I can't imagine who'd be able to successfully run against her. Bernie won't run so she'll probably inherit the progressive wing from him, in addition to a good chunk of moderates as well, given the make-up of her voter base this year. Harris would surely run again, but in addition to probably being tainted by the 2020 ticket's loss, she may not be as well-liked &/or seen as charismatic by as much of the party's base as Warren is. Yang would probably run again, & Governors like Cuomo, Newsom, &/or Inslee would probably all run too, but who knows how popular they'd be? Not to mention, with a 2nd Trump term, the party will have likely moved even further left by 2024.

As for the GOP, they nominate Pence as a sacrificial lamb (because there's no way the GOP wins a 3rd term after 8 years of Trump), & most other significant potential candidates would wait for 2028.

If he’s still remembered fondly for it, Cuomo might be able to ride his COVID popularity to the nomination. Then again, Giuliani tried something like that in 2008 and that didn’t work out for him too well. Newsom might be a good candidate though. I still think some of the dark horses I mentioned would be viable, among others. I certainly don’t think Warren would have it locked up. Due to her age, her failed campaign this year, likely challenges from the left such as AOC, and possibly other factors that depend in part on why exactly Biden lost and what the state of the party is in 2024. We’d probably have another fairly open field like this year, but maybe more likely a dark horse emerges kinda like Carter in 1976. The party will certainly be divided on just how we managed to lose twice to the worst candidate in history and what needs to be done to correct course.

A noun, a verb, & COVID-19? Tongue


As for her running mate, top contenders would likely be Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Andrew Yang, and Andrew Gillum.

It wouldn't be Gillum.

Yeah Gillum is probably done in politics:

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2020/03/15/andrew-gillum-to-enter-rehab-after-being-linked-to-meth-overdose-incident-miami-beach/5056173002/
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2020, 09:24:14 pm »

Warren vs. Pence.

Warren would probably be the hugest force in the Democratic primary, & I can't imagine who'd be able to successfully run against her. Bernie won't run so she'll probably inherit the progressive wing from him, in addition to a good chunk of moderates as well, given the make-up of her voter base this year. Harris would surely run again, but in addition to probably being tainted by the 2020 ticket's loss, she may not be as well-liked &/or seen as charismatic by as much of the party's base as Warren is. Yang would probably run again, & Governors like Cuomo, Newsom, &/or Inslee would probably all run too, but who knows how popular they'd be? Not to mention, with a 2nd Trump term, the party will have likely moved even further left by 2024.

As for the GOP, they nominate Pence as a sacrificial lamb (because there's no way the GOP wins a 3rd term after 8 years of Trump), & most other significant potential candidates would wait for 2028.

If he’s still remembered fondly for it, Cuomo might be able to ride his COVID popularity to the nomination. Then again, Giuliani tried something like that in 2008 and that didn’t work out for him too well. Newsom might be a good candidate though. I still think some of the dark horses I mentioned would be viable, among others. I certainly don’t think Warren would have it locked up. Due to her age, her failed campaign this year, likely challenges from the left such as AOC, and possibly other factors that depend in part on why exactly Biden lost and what the state of the party is in 2024. We’d probably have another fairly open field like this year, but maybe more likely a dark horse emerges kinda like Carter in 1976. The party will certainly be divided on just how we managed to lose twice to the worst candidate in history and what needs to be done to correct course.

A noun, a verb, & COVID-19? Tongue


As for her running mate, top contenders would likely be Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Andrew Yang, and Andrew Gillum.

It wouldn't be Gillum.

Yeah Gillum is probably done in politics:

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2020/03/15/andrew-gillum-to-enter-rehab-after-being-linked-to-meth-overdose-incident-miami-beach/5056173002/

Do you think that was a reaction to the election being stolen from him or do you think he was always doing weird sh**t?
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Rep. FalterinArc
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« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2020, 12:27:37 pm »

Beshear probably won’t run as he won’t do two campaigns at once. I think Gretchen Whitmer could win by getting a lot of the people who supported Klobuchar plus getting more young voters than her.
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SENATOR JOESEPH MCCARTHY (R.I.P. RGB)
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« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2020, 01:01:55 pm »

Harris, Buttigieg, Warren, Cuomo, AOC, Whitmer, Newsom.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2020, 01:17:44 pm »

Beshear probably won’t run as he won’t do two campaigns at once. I think Gretchen Whitmer could win by getting a lot of the people who supported Klobuchar plus getting more young voters than her.

Hmm, good point. I was about to say that since the gov election is in 2023, it wouldn’t be an issue. But of course there’s lots of campaigning/debating going on the year before the election thanks to our ridiculously long primary season. Would be hard to catch up if he entered late, especially for a lesser known candidate from a small state like him. His best chance of getting on a presidential ticket in 2024 would be as Kamala’s VP or something. Better chance of that, of course, if he wins re-election. But if he does, he might opt to just serve out his term and run in 2028. He’ll still be pretty damn young.

Whitmer could have a viable path for the reasons you mention. Klob herself could also try to come back, of course, though I don’t know if she’d have even as good a chance as last time. Again though, I think who will be favored comes down largely to why Biden lost and where/how.

Quote
Do you think that was a reaction to the election being stolen from him or do you think he was always doing weird sh**t?

Well, he is a Florida Man...
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2020, 01:53:25 pm »

Beshear probably won’t run as he won’t do two campaigns at once. I think Gretchen Whitmer could win by getting a lot of the people who supported Klobuchar plus getting more young voters than her.

Hmm, good point. I was about to say that since the gov election is in 2023, it wouldn’t be an issue. But of course there’s lots of campaigning/debating going on the year before the election thanks to our ridiculously long primary season. Would be hard to catch up if he entered late, especially for a lesser known candidate from a small state like him. His best chance of getting on a presidential ticket in 2024 would be as Kamala’s VP or something. Better chance of that, of course, if he wins re-election. But if he does, he might opt to just serve out his term and run in 2028. He’ll still be pretty damn young.

Whitmer could have a viable path for the reasons you mention. Klob herself could also try to come back, of course, though I don’t know if she’d have even as good a chance as last time. Again though, I think who will be favored comes down largely to why Biden lost and where/how.

Hope not, didn't work out so well for Christie or Jindal.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2020, 01:59:36 pm »

Republican nominee will probably be Pence in this case. I predict the Democratic nominee would be either Andrew Cuomo or Gretchen Whitmer.
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dw93
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« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2020, 03:58:31 pm »

Pence or Pompeo, whichever one of them Trump crowns, gets the Republican nomination. The Democratic field would be wide open and would depend on a variety of factors. It wouldn't be Harris, as I think she'd be tainted by a Biden loss, especially if said loss comes due to depressed turnout in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee. I could see Bullock, if he wins the Senate race despite a Trump win, getting traction if he makes a name for himself as a Senator and gets more name recognition.
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Lurker '06
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« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2020, 04:47:05 pm »

Warren vs Pence sounds the most likely. 

I think its inevitable that the Democratic nominee would be well to the left of both Clinton and Biden after eight years of Trump having emboldened the progressive wing.  Warren seems like the natural beneficiary due to her national profile and having already ran before.  AOC is really the one other progressive that I can see getting anywhere but I don't think she'll run as early as 2024.

As already mentioned, Harris would have to face down history in terms of failed VP candidates coming back to win their party's nomination. Though there is the question of whether or not Warren would have a problem connecting with the black community so maybe that would be her ace in the hole?

Pence being the GOP nominee is obvious for a number of reasons. Unless Trump has a sharp uptick in popularity before then, I would imagine guys like Cotton and Hawley wait until 2028.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2020, 10:56:02 pm »

Andrew Cuomo vs Mike Pence
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