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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Black vote as the future of the GOP
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Author Topic: Black vote as the future of the GOP  (Read 740 times)
Statilius the Epicurean
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« on: August 18, 2020, 05:47:59 pm »

Obviously not winning them, but eating into the margins would help the GOP advance in the Midwest at the same time as holding emerging Southern swing states like NC, GA, TX.

You've already seen the beginning of this strategy with Trump passing the First Step Act on criminal justice reform, his campaign pushing hard the "you ain't black" comment from Biden and the hilarious courting of Kanye West among other things. In the future this will be seen like Romney's tough on China, tough on immigration message was a preview of Trump's "populist" campaign pitch a cycle later.

The political logic of such a move is obvious, because now that white conservatives have largely left the Democratic party its black voters are the moderate bloc who stonewalled the progressive faction in 2016 and 2020. Importantly, white liberals are now more progressive on race than the median minority voter! Older and rural black Democrats are also culturally out of step with the party in general, as the Democratic party has become younger, more urban, more secular, more diverse with Hispanic and Asian voters growing in importance relative to African Americans, aren't they the obvious faction to try and peel off from the majoritarian coalition?

Republican primary voters even have an appetite for this sort of move, with the slightly bizarre candidacies of Herman Cain and Ben Carson in 2012 and 2016 showing GOP voters would be excited by a competent black candidate.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2020, 06:02:42 pm »

I'm very skeptical of this theory. I think the main reason black voters are so Democratic-leaning is the fact that the GOP is seen as having a condescending attitude on racial issues, and that their economic policies do nothing to help poor Black people living in urban areas. A good argument is to tone down the racial rhetoric of course, but also to suggest that Democratic policies have done nothing to help them. They can point to heavily-black cities like Detroit, Baltimore, and St. Louis, saying that Democrats have held power for decades and there's been no meaningful increase in the quality of life for the community.

Of couse, all Democrats need to do to counter the argument is to suggest that the GOP hasn't really changed one bit on race or that it's part of a larger pattern of contempt for working class Americans, and that it's their policies at federal and state level that are responsible for African-American hardships.
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Tiger08
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2020, 09:29:58 pm »

I think (and hope) that a significant percentage of Black voters can become solidly GOP. We as a party need to be more sympathetic to racial justice issues as well as moderate on a few economic issues. With better and consistent messaging (and a better standard bearer) I think up to a third of Black voters could potentially vote GOP in a good year if the Democrats keep moving leftward and the GOP doesn't go full QAnon
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2020, 11:19:16 pm »

So long as Republicans mostly remain racist & are unable to shed the image thereof, they won't significantly eat into the Black vote's margins.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2020, 01:09:08 am »

I definitely think ADOS-Black Americans have the most room to trend R in the medium to long term, partly because Black voters vote more D than any other visible minority group, but also because a future culture war along a nationalism/globalism axis combined with (fingers crossed!) continued progress on race relations will shift the ADOS community rightward.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2020, 10:15:08 am »

History tells us that there are a significant chunk of Black voters who are cynical (realistic?) enough to not see either party as explicitly looking out for them ... they've long been written about as a strategic voting group.  Black voters gave Stevenson their vote in 1956 after Eisenhower enforced Brown v. Board and Stevenson literally picked a segregationist as President.  Republican warnings that a vote for a Northern Democrat was simply a vote for a Southern Democrat to keep his committee assignment and therefore torpedo civil rights bills fell flat all throughout the mid-Twentieth Century.  My point?  I don't think there are a bunch of Black voters who would be voting Republican if they didn't see the GOP as racist ... hate to burst your bubble, but I'm sure many Black Democrats see White Democrats as racist, too, even if not as much.

Based on polling and interviews I have seen, the Black vote is very strategic and communitarian in nature.  Wealthy Blacks aren't voting for the Democrats because the GOP is unbecoming ... they are voting for Democrats because they see Democratic policies as advancing the Black community's standing in America more than GOP policies.  If Republicans want to start winning some of the Black vote, they first have the very tough task of convincing Black voters that they no longer have the need in 2020s America to "stick together" to the extent they have for decades and decades.  Given recent events ... good luck with that.  Black voters need to feel as comfortable, non-threatened and "ahead" in society as White voters to vote with their diversity.  Small groups that have faced decades of persecution and injustice naturally think that their power to enact change is best concentrated in one political party in which the group can exert maximum influence; I mean, just look at how Black support more or less decides who the Democratic nominee will be.  Republican Black leaders in the 1940s and 1950s argued that Blacks should be voting Republican, too, so as to establish the voting bloc as the "balance of power" ... the argument got crushed in favor of continuing to expand Black influence in the Democratic Party.

I think in 30-40 years, when those who grew up with parents who were segregationists or run-of-the-mill racists of the 1960s and 1970s variety have passed on from this world, you might start to see new generations view Black Americans in a different, more "assimilated" way (I'm using this word as far as economic, educational and social status rather than cultural here), and this might cause the Black vote to splinter into more of a 70/30 Democratic vote.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2020, 02:24:18 pm »

For Republicans to win over minorities, they need an issue like SSM again. When the Republican Party can say “We represent religious values,” they can feasibly win over Hispanics, Blacks, and Muslims. I do think a key selling point of that could be trade, as Donald Trump has discovered.
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Atlanta 1997 World Champs
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2020, 04:00:42 pm »

For Republicans to win over minorities, they need an issue like SSM again. When the Republican Party can say “We represent religious values,” they can feasibly win over Hispanics, Blacks, and Muslims. I do think a key selling point of that could be trade, as Donald Trump has discovered.

SSM is old news.......a lot of white Americans are pro SSM

Trade, you are right.

That is why someone like Josh Hawley could be appealing......
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2020, 05:08:16 pm »

For Republicans to win over minorities, they need an issue like SSM again. When the Republican Party can say “We represent religious values,” they can feasibly win over Hispanics, Blacks, and Muslims. I do think a key selling point of that could be trade, as Donald Trump has discovered.

SSM is old news.......a lot of white Americans are pro SSM

Trade, you are right.

That is why someone like Josh Hawley could be appealing......

Hence why I said something like. Of course, if the tide begins to turn against SSM, we’ll see that re-emerge.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2020, 04:43:33 pm »

For Republicans to win over minorities, they need an issue like SSM again. When the Republican Party can say “We represent religious values,” they can feasibly win over Hispanics, Blacks, and Muslims. I do think a key selling point of that could be trade, as Donald Trump has discovered.

SSM is old news.......a lot of white Americans are pro SSM

Trade, you are right.

That is why someone like Josh Hawley could be appealing......

Hence why I said something like. Of course, if the tide begins to turn against SSM, we’ll see that re-emerge.

Just like the tide will eventually turn against the abolition of slavery, right?
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NoobMaster69
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2020, 11:54:35 am »

I doubt we will see any large shift in the next half century (or even longer). There's just too much history involved. Rome wasn't built in a day.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2020, 01:16:11 pm »

For Republicans to win over minorities, they need an issue like SSM again. When the Republican Party can say “We represent religious values,” they can feasibly win over Hispanics, Blacks, and Muslims. I do think a key selling point of that could be trade, as Donald Trump has discovered.

SSM is old news.......a lot of white Americans are pro SSM

Trade, you are right.

That is why someone like Josh Hawley could be appealing......

Hence why I said something like. Of course, if the tide begins to turn against SSM, we’ll see that re-emerge.

Just like the tide will eventually turn against the abolition of slavery, right?

...
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Horus
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2020, 02:13:40 pm »

For Republicans to win over minorities, they need an issue like SSM again. When the Republican Party can say “We represent religious values,” they can feasibly win over Hispanics, Blacks, and Muslims. I do think a key selling point of that could be trade, as Donald Trump has discovered.

SSM is old news.......a lot of white Americans are pro SSM

Trade, you are right.

That is why someone like Josh Hawley could be appealing......

Hence why I said something like. Of course, if the tide begins to turn against SSM, we’ll see that re-emerge.

SSM is here to stay, abortion and trans issues (both transgender and transhumanist)  will be the social issues of the future
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Unbeatable Titan Vincenzo De Luca!
Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2020, 02:22:41 pm »

I think it is fair to ask if it is only a coincidence that the Black vote became Democratic about at the same time as the last people born into slavery were reaching the end of their lives.
And to wonder if anything of note will happen when the last people born during Jim Crow reach the end of their lives.

To be clear, this is only speculation.
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Michelle O'
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2020, 09:32:13 pm »

It would have to be a major issue and will also need to take the repudiation of black voters from the other party. The only issue that equals in terms of importance to the slavery and segregation black community is racial inequality and economic opportunity. Republicans don't even want to give economic opportunity to struggling voters in their own party so there is no way in hell they're going to give it to the so call looters and invaders.
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