NC-High Point University: Biden leads Sanders and Warren 31-20-15
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  NC-High Point University: Biden leads Sanders and Warren 31-20-15
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Author Topic: NC-High Point University: Biden leads Sanders and Warren 31-20-15  (Read 628 times)
Sorenroy
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« on: September 30, 2019, 09:51:59 AM »
« edited: September 30, 2019, 03:54:44 PM by Sorenroy »

Sample size of 348 adults, conducted September 13th to 19th.

Biden — 31%
Sanders — 20%
Warren — 15%
Harris — 6%
Booker — 4%
Yang — 4%
Buttigieg — 3%
Castro — 1%
Klobuchar — 1%
O’Rourke — 1%

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2019/09/66memoC.pdf
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2019, 09:57:18 AM »

That's closer than Sanders got to Clinton so I'll take it.
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Matty
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2019, 10:09:49 AM »

Not a great poll for Biden
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2019, 12:18:33 PM »

Btw, those are the numbers for registered Democrats only.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2019, 12:42:01 PM »

fav/unfav % among all adults:
Biden 43/42% for +1%
Booker 23/28% for -5%
Sanders 38/45% for -7%
Warren 32/44% for -12%
Harris 28/42% for -14%
Yang 20/34% for -14%
Buttigieg 19/37% for -18%
Klobuchar 14/34% for -20%
O’Rourke 20/41% for -21%
Castro 15/41% for -26%
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2019, 12:48:29 PM »

Btw, those are the numbers for registered Democrats only.

Yep. Registered Independents can also vote in the Democratic primary, but, without a screener question asking about primary preference, that number is less helpful in gauging the state of the race. Also, it is what both High Point and 538 present as the topline results.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2019, 01:05:02 PM »

Btw, those are the numbers for registered Democrats only.

Yep. Registered Independents can also vote in the Democratic primary, but, without a screener question asking about primary preference, that number is less helpful in gauging the state of the race. Also, it is what both High Point and 538 present as the topline results.

Do we have the numbers including independents as well?
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2019, 01:50:48 PM »

DROP OUT, WARREN!
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redjohn
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2019, 02:34:16 PM »

But... Bernie's campaign is in disarray! He should drop out!

Polls today: Bernie tied in NV, 2nd in NC. Not bad for someone who is supposedly doing terribly.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2019, 03:59:28 PM »

Btw, those are the numbers for registered Democrats only.

Yep. Registered Independents can also vote in the Democratic primary, but, without a screener question asking about primary preference, that number is less helpful in gauging the state of the race. Also, it is what both High Point and 538 present as the topline results.

Do we have the numbers including independents as well?

They're not provided, but a little math and you can come up with what those numbers might look like:

Candidate — Percentage (Difference from Dem only)
Biden — 26% (-5%)
Sanders — 17% (-3%)
Warren — 11% (-4%)
Harris — 6% (-0%)
Yang — 4% (±0)
Booker — 3% (-1%)
Buttigieg — 3% (±0)
Castro — 1% (±0)
Klobuchar — 1% (±0)
O’Rourke — 1% (±0)

As you might notice, the only real change is that the undecided/don't know/refused percentage increased from 13% to 26%. If we exclude those numbers (from both samples) we get something slightly more helpful:

Candidate — Percentage (Difference from Dem only)
Biden — 36% (-0%)
Sanders — 23% (+0%)
Warren — 15% (-3%)
Harris — 8% (+1%)
Yang — 6% (+1%)
Buttigieg — 3% (+1%)
Booker — 3% (-1%)
Castro — 1% (+0%)
Klobuchar — 1% (+0%)
O’Rourke — 1% (+0%)

Of course, excluding those who are undecided or otherwise don't answer is fairly problematic, as is including Independents without a screener. There are likely people in these numbers who won't be voting in the Democratic party or haven't made up their mind in a way that isn't represented by simply leaving them out of the model (ie: they won't be distributed to candidates in the same amounts as those who have already decided).
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2019, 05:01:36 PM »

Thanks for the numbers Sorenroy. If Yang is at 6% with independents in North Carolina this early, that's a good sign for his campaign. Smiley
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2019, 05:21:25 PM »

Thanks for the numbers Sorenroy. If Yang is at 6% with independents in North Carolina this early, that's a good sign for his campaign. Smiley

No prob, Bob. However, Yang is at 4% with Independents, 7% when you exclude those who went either "Undecided" or Don't know/refuse". The 6% figure is amongst a 53-47 Dem-Ind sample excluding the two previous fields.

Here's my Google Sheet that I worked on for the numbers. Hopefully that helps break down where everything is coming from.
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