Truman in 1948 v. FDR in 1944

[RBH]

Overall

Truman: 49.55%
FDR: 53.39%

Truman ran ahead of FDR in Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming

Here's the split for the top 5 counties and bottom 5 in some of those states

Top 5
Colorado: 51/49 Dewey in 1944, 52/46 Truman in 1948 (54% and 55% of the vote was in those 5 counties)

Top 10
Indiana: 51/49 FDR in 1944, 52/47 Truman in 1948 (45% of the vote)
Iowa: 51/48 FDR in 1944, 53/45 Truman in 1948 (32% and 33% of the vote)
Kansas: 55/45 Dewey in 1944, 49/49 Dewey in 1948 (156796/155516). [39% and 40% of the vote]
Kentucky: 57/43 FDR in 1944, 55/43 Truman in 1948 (33% and 36%)
South Dakota: 55/45 Dewey in 1944, 50/49 Dewey in 1948 (38%/39%)
Wisconsin: 55/44 FDR in 1944, 53/43 Truman in 1948 (51%/52%)

Top 15:
Missouri - 55/45 FDR in 1944 and 60/40 Truman in 1948 (58% and 60%)

The Rest of the counties
Colorado: 56/43 Dewey in 1944, 52/47 Truman in 1948
Indiana: 55/43 Dewey in 1944, 52/47 Dewey in 1948
Iowa: 54/46 Dewey in 1944, 49/49 Truman in 1948 (Truman 341906, Dewey 341788)
Kansas: 64/36 Dewey in 1944, 57/42 Dewey in 1948
Kentucky: 53/46 FDR in 1944, 58/40 Truman in 1948
Missouri: 53/47 Dewey in 1944 and 56/44 Truman in 1948
South Dakota: 60/40 Dewey in 1944 and 53/46 Dewey in 1948
Wisconsin: 57/42 Dewey in 1944, 50/48 Dewey in 1948

In conclusion: That Truman fella was popular in the smaller towns.

Campaign stops in those states

http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistlestop/50yr_archive/jsmap1.htm

Colorado: six stops over two days
Indiana: 17 stops over six days
Iowa: eight stops in one day
Kansas: one stop in Junction City
Kentucky: 13 stops over two days
Massachusetts: no stops
Minnesota: six stops over two days
Missouri: ten stops over six days
Nebraska: no stops
New Mexico: two stops in one day
Oklahoma: 19 stops in 2 days
South Dakota: no stops
West Virginia: six stops over two days
Wisconsin: nine stops over two days
Wyoming: no stops

[gorkay]

One reason Truman ran better than FDR in many midwestern states is because FDR's farm policies had become very unpopular there, and even though Truman didn't change them much, he wasn't as identified with them as Roosevelt. There was also the fact that the "do-nothing" Republican Congress had made lots of promises to change things in 1946 and didn't live up to their promises, a fact Truman underlined by calling Congress into special session at the beginning of the election campaign and challenging them to live up to their campaign promises.

Don't forget that Truman's percentage would have been even higher if not for Thurmond and Wallace, also.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, the numbers here are a little skewed. If you look at Dewey's percentage it's almost unchanged (in fact, he lost slightly in 1948 compared to 1944). Truman did worse than FDR nationally because of Wallace and Thurmond, but they are largely local existences, i.e. the Deep South+New York. Beyond that we can expect Truman to do about as well as FDR and there is nothing strange about him doing better in many states.

[RBH]

Minnesota splits

The top 10 counties in votes (Blue Earth, Dakota, Hennepin, Mower, Olmsted, Otter Tail, Ramsey, St. Louis, Stearns, and Winona)

Top 10
1944 (54% of votes): 56/43 FDR
1948 (53% of votes): 57/39 Truman

Rest of the state
1944: 51/48 Dewey
1948: 57/41 Truman

Then again, maybe merging the D with the FL helped Truman out a lot in getting support.