Estimate the percentage of GOP voters who'd vote Dem if it weren't for abortion.

[Forward]

As you might know, Republicans keep on winning elections for some reason despite the fact that almost of there ideas are very unpopular. The vast, vast majority of Americans support tax increases on the rich, Medicare-For-All, increasing the minimum wage, protecting and expanding entitlements, paid leave, background checks, marijuana legalization, gay marriage, immigration reform, etc. To my knowledge (TMK), the only issues that polls show the American public around evenly split on is abortion and free college. TMK, the only issues that polls show the American public side with the Republicans on are Syrian refugees and the death penalty.

I've often hear people claim that Republicans keep on winning anyways because the GOP thrives on people who vote based on vague platitudes and especially single-issue voters. Specifically, voters who base their decision solely on abortion and/or gun control and/or immigration. These are the 3 big ones. Abortion more so than the other two.

I think there probably are several voters who would otherwise vote Dem if it weren't for abortion. I think these are people who equate abortion to the Holocaust or think of it as even worse and will vote for anyone who opposes it no matter how nefarious they may be.

What do you think the percentage is?

 

[lfromnj]

Again it isn't just abortion but a mix of all cultural/social issues

Overall the culture divide is 50/50 while the economic divide is 65/35.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

5-10%, although I think that's still probably greater than the percentage of Democratic voters who'd vote Republican if it weren't for abortion. I would have voted for a higher bracket earlier in the decade before it became clear how much of a threadbare excuse "issues" of any kind are for American voting behavior in general.

[Lechasseur]

Again it isn't just abortion but a mix of all cultural/social issues

Overall the culture divide is 50/50 while the economic divide is 65/35.

This

[McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero]

Hard to say. It's not like you can't be a "pro-life single issue voter" and support tax cuts. For instance, I'm still voting Rispone this month because I think the sales taxes are too high now.

[Not_A_Doctor]

Very few. almost every rabidly anti-choice person I've ever met was also right-wing on a wide variety of other issues.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

10% at most, since I suspect most who vote Republican solely because of abortion wouldn't bother to vote if that weren't a factor in the race.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

the thing is most "single issue voters" tend to pick up all associated views via osmosis anyway. You may join the GOP because of abortion, but that means you stay in the orbit of conservative media and politicians, so you end up picking up right-wing views on everything else*; although if the issue were to disappear it would be a major blow to the GOP cadre - it's a big GOTV issue that gets at the heartstrings of its devotees like few other issues.

* this also explains the tendency for people who have changed parties either way due to Trump to sort of careen off ideologically into their new party - you start listening to pro- or anti-Trump media to match your beliefs around the man and you end up changing your views as well.

[Tartarus Sauce]

The more interesting question is how many non-affiliated voters would be more inclined to vote mostly Democratic if it weren't for the abortion issue. I can think of way more people in my own life who would be decently reliable Democratic leaning independents, as opposed to frequently vacillating or indifferent independents, if it weren't for their hangups with Democrats on a single issue like abortion or gun rights.

Very few people identify as Republicans solely because of abortion, although it does end up being one of their most reliable motivating issues. As others have pointed out, once they start identifying as Republican over such a core issue, it usually entails an embrace of the whole kit and caboodle.

[lfromnj]

Btw can we remember blue dog chet Chet Edward's in a 70% McCain district had a 100% NARAL rating lol.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I can think of way more people in my own life who would be decently reliable Democratic leaning independents, as opposed to frequently vacillating or indifferent independents, if it weren't for their hangups with Democrats on a single issue like abortion or gun rights.

It's very interesting how one could reject an entire party platform because of an issue that doesn't affect their day to day life at all. Do they plan on taking care of the children born to people who don't/can't parent these children or no?

[DC Al Fine]

I can think of way more people in my own life who would be decently reliable Democratic leaning independents, as opposed to frequently vacillating or indifferent independents, if it weren't for their hangups with Democrats on a single issue like abortion or gun rights.

It's very interesting how one could reject an entire party platform because of an issue that doesn't affect their day to day life at all. Do they plan on taking care of the children born to people who don't/can't parent these children or no?

This is pretty mundane if you try and see things through a pro-lifer's eyes.