The electoral triangle
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  The electoral triangle
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MaC
Milk_and_cereal
Junior Chimp
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« on: December 23, 2005, 04:13:23 PM »

Anyone else notice the electoral triangle between Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida that (with the exception of the 1960 election), every election where the candidate who won at least two of these states won the election.  Granted, at one point Pennsylvania was much more of an electoral player, and Florida wasn't as much.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2005, 04:26:10 PM »

Anyone else notice the electoral triangle between Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida that (with the exception of the 1960 election), every election where the candidate who won at least two of these states won the election.  Granted, at one point Pennsylvania was much more of an electoral player, and Florida wasn't as much.

Another way to look at the three is as swing states, whoever wins must, by definiton win swing states. 
For the 2012 election both PA and OH will likely lose 2 EV each, while FL gains 3.  As a result, a Republican can win without OH or PA, if he wins the other Bush states.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2005, 12:08:51 PM »

You can twist a lot of numbers around, but obviously if you win 2 of the 3 biggest swing states you'll have a good shot. In 1960 none of the 3 were that close and Florida wasn't very big either.
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