Predict IA, OH, & TX in the general election
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  Predict IA, OH, & TX in the general election		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Predict IA, OH, & TX in the general election  (Read 2976 times)
TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #25 on: September 23, 2019, 11:40:28 AM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on September 23, 2019, 09:57:49 AM
IA: Trump +9
OH: Trump +7
TX: Trump +2

IA to the right of OH? BOLD, I know.

Judging from this thread, about as bold as Texas voting left of both of IA and Oh
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JA
Jacobin American
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« Reply #26 on: September 23, 2019, 11:51:19 AM »
Iowa | Trump +5%
Ohio | Trump +6%
Texas | Trump +7%
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #27 on: September 23, 2019, 12:08:50 PM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on September 23, 2019, 10:33:58 AM
Quote from: Beef on September 23, 2019, 10:32:00 AM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on September 23, 2019, 10:07:43 AM

I think we’re the only posters who currently believe that IA will be more Republican than OH, even if only slightly.

That's because conditions on the ground are a disaster for Trump in Iowa, and they're not so bad in Ohio.

It’s not the word I would use, MI is a disaster for Trump but IA is clearly winnable for him.

MI is a light blue state that is now probably out of reach. IA is a pink state that Trump will probably win, but he's not going to tap dance to victory like people think he will.

In Ohio democrats have bled too many white, working class votes that used to be the backbone of Democratic support there. It's not a safe R state yet, but it now takes a pretty solid Dem win nationwide to pull in Ohio. They're not like Wisconsin, where the overwhelming D trend in Dane County is enough to make up for deficiencies in industrial NE Wisconsin and rural SW Wisconsin. Without strong support in NE Ohio, Democrats are sunk there.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2019, 12:13:01 PM »
IA: Trump +5
OH: Trump +7
TX: Trump +5
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West_Midlander
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« Reply #29 on: September 23, 2019, 01:17:18 PM »
IA: Trump +4
OH: Trump +1
TX: Trump +2
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IceSpear
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« Reply #30 on: September 23, 2019, 02:37:32 PM »
IA: Trump +7
OH: Trump +10
TX: Trump +3
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IceSpear
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« Reply #31 on: September 23, 2019, 02:38:18 PM »
Quote from: UWS on September 23, 2019, 11:12:18 AM
I don’t see TX going to the left of OH.

It already did in the 2018 House popular vote.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #32 on: September 23, 2019, 02:40:15 PM »
OH: 52-43 Trump
IA: 51-44 Trump
TX: 51-45 Trump
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Skye
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« Reply #33 on: September 23, 2019, 02:45:45 PM »
IA: Trump +3
OH: Trump +6
TX: Trump +3
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #34 on: September 23, 2019, 03:22:07 PM »
IA:  Trump +12
OH:  Trump +9
TX:  Trump +5
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #35 on: September 26, 2019, 08:52:23 PM »
« Edited: September 26, 2019, 08:56:26 PM by Scottholes 2.0 »
Quote from: Zaybay on September 23, 2019, 10:09:41 AM
You know what, I dont think I was 'BOLD' enough the last time. Here are my revised figures:

Iowa: Trump +12

Ohio: Trump+ 11

Texas: Trump+0.5

LOL! These states are TITANIUM R because of ONE election in "muh 2016". I think your "actual" prediction is plausible. The House results prove that Iowa is still a swing state, so Trump may very well lose it. I do, however, think Ernst will win it.

Prediction:

Iowa: Trump +1
Ohio: Trump +3
Texas: Trump +4
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Perlen vor den Schweinen
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« Reply #36 on: September 26, 2019, 09:51:05 PM »
Iowa: Dem +5 (Loser Ernst loses)
Ohio: Trump +6-8
Texas: Trump +2-4

Iowa voters are notoriously insane, so whoever is winning the angry midwestern farmer vote is winning Iowa. Cities also swing against Trump in Iowa. The forces of Appalachia will force Ohio to be fairly right wing for now. Texas is getting closer and closer, but I'll stick with O'Rouke margins as a best-case scenario for now.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #37 on: September 26, 2019, 11:02:01 PM »
Iowa +2 D
Ohio +4 R
Texas +2 R
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Vern
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« Reply #38 on: September 26, 2019, 11:21:30 PM »
Iowa: Trump wins by 6 points
Ohio: Trump wins by 4 points
Texas: Trump wins by 11 points
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Fwillb21
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« Reply #39 on: September 30, 2019, 12:25:49 AM »
IA: Tossup
OH: Tilt R
TX: Tossup
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #40 on: September 30, 2019, 01:12:35 AM »
IA: Trump +1
OH: Trump +7
TX: Dem + <1
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #41 on: September 30, 2019, 02:53:15 AM »

LOL.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #42 on: September 30, 2019, 12:06:52 PM »
NPV - Dem +5-6
Iowa - Dem +1-2
Ohio - Trump +2-3
Texas - Trump +0-1
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #43 on: September 30, 2019, 12:13:00 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2019, 12:16:47 PM by Old School Republican »
Against Biden:

TX: Trump by 5
OH: Trump by 5
IA: Trump by 2


Against Warren:

TX: Trump by 8
OH: Trump by 10.5
IA: Trump by 7.5

Against Bernie:

TX: Trump by 7
OH: Trump by 6
IA: Trump by 4
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OneJ
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« Reply #44 on: September 30, 2019, 12:22:25 PM »
IA - Trump +7
OH - Trump +6
TX - Trump +3
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bagelman
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« Reply #45 on: September 30, 2019, 08:16:44 PM »
IA: D+1
TX: Trump+2
OH: Trump+2.5

If Trump wins the GE:

IA: Trump+2
TX: Trump+4
OH: Trump+4.5
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #46 on: September 02, 2022, 02:45:49 AM »
Quote from: SN2903 on September 23, 2019, 11:15:09 AM
Ohio  - Trump +9
Iowa - Trump +10
Texas - Trump + 6

Ironically SN was the closest here
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bagelman
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« Reply #47 on: September 02, 2022, 11:30:04 PM »
Actual (rounded) R+8 for OH and IA, R+5.5 for TX

Margins of error:

IA:

Zaybay2, Republican95: R+4
538Electoral, SN2903: R+2
TrendsareReal: accurate
gracile, IceSpear, ElectionsGuy, OneJ D+1
vern1988 D+2
TSAS04, Frenchrepublican, Jacobin, Laki, kongress D+3
Thunder98, Politician, 20RP12, RFKFan68, Orser67, West_Midlander: D+4
redjohn, yeah_93, Computer89 D+5
krb08, Comrade Funk, Beef, Wisconsinite, McGovernForPrez: D+7
bagelman D+9
RaphaelDLG: D+9.5
coloradocowboi D+10
Zaybay1 D+11

OH:

Zaybay2: R+3
IceSpear: R+2
538Electoral, SN2903, ElectionsGuy, Republican95: R+1
Frenchrepublican, TrendsareReal accurate
Comrade Funk, Laki, kongress(average), McGovernForPrez: D+1
gracile, redjohn, Orser67, Jacobin, yeah_93, OneJ D+2
TSAS04, krb08, Politician, RFKFan68, Beef, Computer89 D+3
Thunder98, 20RP12, coloradocowboi, vern1988 D+4
Wisconsinite D+5
RaphaelDLG, bagelman D+5.5
Zaybay1 D+6
West_Midlander D+7

TX:

vern1988: R+5.5
538Electoral: R+4
Jacobin: R+2.5
Frenchrepublican, Politician, SN2903, ElectionsGuy R+0.5 (close enough, closer than below)
redjohn, Orser67, Laki, Republican95, Computer89 D+0.5 (close enough)
gracile, Beef, Wisconsinite D+1.5
TSAS04, kbr08, 20RP12, Comrade Funk, IceSpear, yeah_93, kongress(average), OneJ D+2.5
Thunder98, Zaybay1, RFKFan68, West_Midlander, coloradocowboi, bagelman: D+3.5
TrendsareReal D+4.5
Zaybay2, RaphaelDLG: D+5
McGovernForPrez: D+6
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