2020 Poll Hype Thread

[tenyasha]

What about polls from Big Data Poll? On 538 they are banned for faking data... i wish they told us how they made that conclusion though

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump really only needs FL and PA, both of which are getting much closer. It’s your funeral, I suppose.

Is the margin in PA getting closer?

Recent PA poll, Biden +2. I’ll take that heading into the election should it hold.

Give it up, Biden leads by 7+ in every recent high-quality PA poll. Cherry-picking low-quality polls that *still show Biden with a lead* isn't going to help the incumbent President who's badly trailing in the state most critical to his re-election.

According to my raw polling average Biden leads by 50.1-43.4 currently in PA

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So we have a Monmouth-AZ poll coming today....anything else?

[wbrocks67]

So we have a Monmouth-AZ poll coming today....anything else?

I think we may be getting OHPI AZ too

[SunSt0rm]

So we have a Monmouth-AZ poll coming today....anything else?

SC from NYT

[ProgressiveModerate]

So we have a Monmouth-AZ poll coming today....anything else?

SC from NYT

Bet it'll have like 20% undecided in the senate, and therefore, pretty useless

[Ljube]

Trump really only needs FL and PA, both of which are getting much closer. It’s your funeral, I suppose.

Is the margin in PA getting closer?

Recent PA poll, Biden +2. I’ll take that heading into the election should it hold.

Give it up, Biden leads by 7+ in every recent high-quality PA poll. Cherry-picking low-quality polls that *still show Biden with a lead* isn't going to help the incumbent President who's badly trailing in the state most critical to his re-election.

According to my raw polling average Biden leads by 50.1-43.4 currently in PA

Which is consistent with Biden +8 nationally.
The other state polls are also consistent with Biden +8 nationally.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ah! Here's what I was looking for (minus the OHPI poll that was released about an hour ago):

https://mobile.twitter.com/ReedForecasts/status/1316564498988359680

Plus, we have that Alaska poll apparently coming tomorrow. 

[wbrocks67]

Ah! Here's what I was looking for (minus the OHPI poll that was released about an hour ago):

https://mobile.twitter.com/ReedForecasts/status/1316564498988359680

Plus, we have that Alaska poll apparently coming tomorrow. 

Possible Fox too - they tend to do releases on Thursdays

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump really only needs FL and PA, both of which are getting much closer. It’s your funeral, I suppose.

Is the margin in PA getting closer?

Recent PA poll, Biden +2. I’ll take that heading into the election should it hold.

Give it up, Biden leads by 7+ in every recent high-quality PA poll. Cherry-picking low-quality polls that *still show Biden with a lead* isn't going to help the incumbent President who's badly trailing in the state most critical to his re-election.

According to my raw polling average Biden leads by 50.1-43.4 currently in PA

Which is consistent with Biden +8 nationally.
The other state polls are also consistent with Biden +8 nationally.

Current state polling suggests more of a Biden + 9 national average when calculating the Swiss from 2016

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

NYT/Siena Alaska poll dropping today! #salmonbump

https://twitter.com/ReedForecasts/status/1316571786767671296

[forza nocta]

NYT Alaska prediction

Trump 44-38

Sullivan 35-32

[VAR]

I think there’ll be less undecideds than people think.

[wbrocks67]

I think there’ll be less undecideds than people think.

IDK, The fact that they could only find 41-37 in North Carolina doesn't give me a lot of hope

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Read the thread if you'd like to learn more pre-poll; Cohn outlines a bit more about the survey's parameters.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1317080661711376384

[Flabuckeye]

Michigan Trafalgar poll out today.  Typical  +1 Trump creation,  46.5% - 45.9%
Follows similar Trafalgar pattern.  Distribution of poll respondents conspicuously low in two congressional districts.......drum roll.....

Michigan 13  (Detroit)
Michigan 5   (Flint)

[Landslide Lyndon]

We should be due of some national polling from Quinnipiac, Monmouth, CNN, and Fox.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We should be due of some national polling from Quinnipiac, Monmouth, CNN, and Fox.

Do you know off the top of your head when our last wave of polling from these pollsters was?

[SaneDemocrat]

We should be due of some national polling from Quinnipiac, Monmouth, CNN, and Fox.

Do you know off the top of your head when our last wave of polling from these pollsters was?

2 weeks ago

[Landslide Lyndon]

We should be due of some national polling from Quinnipiac, Monmouth, CNN, and Fox.

Do you know off the top of your head when our last wave of polling from these pollsters was?

Q was a month ago. Momnmouth was pre-debate and the rest were immediately after the debate.

[GeneralMacArthur]

NYT/Siena Alaska prediction:

Trump 27, Biden 24

Sullivan 16, Gross 9

standard amount of undecideds

[Bootes Void]

Alaska nyt upshot prediction

Trump 13 Biden 11
 
Sullivan 9 Gross 6

[GeorgiaModerate]

At this rate, you folks are going to have the Alaska results in negative numbers.

[brucejoel99]

At this rate, you folks are going to have the Alaska results in negative numbers.

Wouldn't put it past NYT/Siena, tbqh.

[Gass3268]

A national and Georgia poll coming from Siena next week.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1317134817654439936?s=20