2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 187223 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #1200 on: September 22, 2020, 05:44:55 PM »
« edited: September 22, 2020, 05:48:49 PM by wbrocks67 »
Huh? There's no way Ohio and PA are going to be close. If Biden is winning Ohio then he's doing way better in PA. There was a 8pt difference between the two in 2016. It's not suddenly going to be like 2.

Polls for OH, WI and MI have generally been around the same, but pollsters have had PA as low as 2 and as high as 9. It doesn't seem like they really understand who the composite is gonna be.

Although these were their last results:

March 2020:
Michigan: Generic D 47, Trump 38
Ohio: Trump 45, Generic D 43
Pennsylvania: Generic D 45, Trump 44
Wisconsin: Generic D 45, Trump 42

April 2020:
Ohio: Biden 45, Trump 44

They only had the D up +1 in March so seems like they just don't have a great PA sample
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #1201 on: September 22, 2020, 08:21:56 PM »
It's probably something like

PA +5
OH +1
MOE +/- 5.5
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n1240
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« Reply #1202 on: September 22, 2020, 08:37:08 PM »
Quote from: GeneralMacArthur on September 22, 2020, 08:21:56 PM
It's probably something like

PA +5
OH +1
MOE +/- 5.5


Margin of Error acts in both directions, the margin of error indicates the error on estimates for each individual candidate, so a margin of error of 5.5 means a candidate with 50% support has a 95% confidence level that the individual candidate's support is between 44.5-55.5%, thus anything within 11% in margin between candidates can be considered within the margin of error. Assuming the pollster isn't incorrectly interpreting the margin of error to be applied in one direction (which would be a grave error on their part), it should imply that Biden's lead is high single digits/low double digits in WI/MI and anywhere between low and mid single digits in PA and OH. Their last series of polling had MOE of about 4% for reference. Pollster made a clarification that MI is outside MOE, WI just outside MOE, and PA is a larger lead than OH.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #1203 on: September 22, 2020, 09:36:23 PM »
Quote from: n1240 on September 22, 2020, 08:37:08 PM
Quote from: GeneralMacArthur on September 22, 2020, 08:21:56 PM
It's probably something like

PA +5
OH +1
MOE +/- 5.5


Margin of Error acts in both directions, the margin of error indicates the error on estimates for each individual candidate, so a margin of error of 5.5 means a candidate with 50% support has a 95% confidence level that the individual candidate's support is between 44.5-55.5%, thus anything within 11% in margin between candidates can be considered within the margin of error. Assuming the pollster isn't incorrectly interpreting the margin of error to be applied in one direction (which would be a grave error on their part), it should imply that Biden's lead is high single digits/low double digits in WI/MI and anywhere between low and mid single digits in PA and OH. Their last series of polling had MOE of about 4% for reference. Pollster made a clarification that MI is outside MOE, WI just outside MOE, and PA is a larger lead than OH.

In that case, assuming a 4% MOE again, the results will probably be something like:

MI +10
WI +8
PA +5/6
OH +1
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #1204 on: September 22, 2020, 10:26:45 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on September 22, 2020, 12:18:15 PM

Biden +2
Ossoff/Purdue- Tied
Loeffler with Warnock in 2nd with Collins in 3rd. Not sure about percentages.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1205 on: September 23, 2020, 02:09:36 AM »
https://twitter.com/laurencopeland0/status/1308544554954522624
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Stuart98
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« Reply #1206 on: September 23, 2020, 02:16:37 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on September 23, 2020, 02:09:36 AM

Biden +9 in MI, +7 in WI, +4 in PA, +1 in OH?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1207 on: September 23, 2020, 05:15:38 AM »
Wait, they're still collecting data so the poll isn't even finished yet?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1208 on: September 23, 2020, 07:04:59 AM »
I have no idea how you square a tie in Ohio with a +1 lead in PA
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1209 on: September 23, 2020, 07:10:17 AM »
Um, is it considered OK by pollsters to announce results while a poll is still ongoing?
Doesn't seem very kosher to me.
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bilaps
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« Reply #1210 on: September 23, 2020, 07:36:30 AM »
You literaly had entire series of live NYT Siena polls 2 yrs ago
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1211 on: September 23, 2020, 10:08:19 AM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1212 on: September 23, 2020, 10:40:32 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 23, 2020, 07:04:59 AM
I have no idea how you square a tie in Ohio with a +1 lead in PA



LOL OOP she deleted it
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republican1993
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« Reply #1213 on: September 23, 2020, 11:01:08 AM »
Quote from: The Other Castro on September 23, 2020, 10:08:19 AM


prob like +8 or +9 their last one was + 10
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1214 on: September 23, 2020, 04:24:50 PM »
They're not going to be as good as Selzer, but I think it's still a welcome addition:
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Splash
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« Reply #1215 on: September 23, 2020, 05:00:23 PM »
Are we getting a new national CNN poll soon? It looks like they just polled the question of if/when the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled.
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Skye
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« Reply #1216 on: September 23, 2020, 07:19:55 PM »
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #1217 on: September 23, 2020, 07:22:09 PM »
Quote from: Skye on September 23, 2020, 07:19:55 PM

Texas: Trump +2
Georgia: Biden +1
Iowa: tie
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1218 on: September 23, 2020, 07:22:29 PM »
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Splash
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« Reply #1219 on: September 23, 2020, 07:27:55 PM »
I'm going to say Trump +3 in IA, and +1 in TX. Biden +1 in GA.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #1220 on: September 23, 2020, 07:29:15 PM »
Quote from: Ontario Nature Enthusiast on September 23, 2020, 07:22:09 PM
Quote from: Skye on September 23, 2020, 07:19:55 PM

Texas: Trump +2
Georgia: Biden +1
Iowa: tie
Texas: Biden +2
Georgia: Biden +1
Iowa: Trump +1
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Rep Jessica
Jessica
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« Reply #1221 on: September 23, 2020, 07:29:47 PM »
Trump +3 in Iowa, Trump +5 in Texas and Trump +2 in Ga.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #1222 on: September 23, 2020, 07:34:40 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2020, 07:42:26 PM by forza nocta »
Iowa Trump +2

Georgia Trump +3

Texas Trump +4
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redjohn
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« Reply #1223 on: September 23, 2020, 07:37:21 PM »
IA: Trump+4
TX: Trump+5
GA: Trump+3

Prove me wrong, please
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1224 on: September 23, 2020, 08:09:04 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2020, 08:12:23 PM by Monstro »
I predict Texas will be within the margin of error and no minds will be changed over whether Biden can/will flip it
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