2020 Poll Hype Thread

[LimoLiberal]

NC: Biden +2, Cunningham and Tillis tied, Cooper +8
ME: Biden +6 (Trump +5 in ME-02), Gideon +1, Golden +4
AZ: Biden +5, Kelly +7

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Pro-GOP sample in all of them

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1306770365448892416

[wbrocks67]

Pro-GOP sample in all of them

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1306770365448892416

it is curious why every single NYT/Siena poll lately has a GOP party ID edge.

[Granite City]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1307021526558965767?s=20

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1307021526558965767?s=20

Tie
Trump +3

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1307021526558965767?s=20

Greenfield+3
Trump+5

[SnowLabrador]

My guess is Trump +5 and Ernst +3. Of course, polling in Iowa underestimates Republicans; we all know this.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1307021526558965767?s=20

Trump+1, Greenfield +3

[GeneralMacArthur]

All these polls are basically void now because the SC Nomination is going to be a seismic shift in the race.

[swf541]

All these polls are basically void now because the SC Nomination is going to be a seismic shift in the race.

Is it really?

I dont see how it changes any of the fundamentals

[Ferguson97]

All these polls are basically void now because the SC Nomination is going to be a seismic shift in the race.

Is it really?

I dont see how it changes any of the fundamentals

Any incumbent Republican not named Martha McSally, Susan Collins, or Cory Gardener just saw their chances of re-election skyrocket.

[swf541]

All these polls are basically void now because the SC Nomination is going to be a seismic shift in the race.

Is it really?

I dont see how it changes any of the fundamentals

Any incumbent Republican not named Martha McSally, Susan Collins, or Cory Gardener just saw their chances of re-election skyrocket.

That doesn't change the presidential race which is what this part of the forum is for

I also fail to see how this helps the GOP incumbents in GA or NC

[WD]

All these polls are basically void now because the SC Nomination is going to be a seismic shift in the race.

Is it really?

I dont see how it changes any of the fundamentals

Any incumbent Republican not named Martha McSally, Susan Collins, or Cory Gardener just saw their chances of re-election skyrocket.

Umm... no, not really.

[Ferguson97]

All these polls are basically void now because the SC Nomination is going to be a seismic shift in the race.

Is it really?

I dont see how it changes any of the fundamentals

Any incumbent Republican not named Martha McSally, Susan Collins, or Cory Gardener just saw their chances of re-election skyrocket.

That doesn't change the presidential race which is what this part of the forum is for

I also fail to see how this helps the GOP incumbents in GA or NC

Republican voters who might have voted for Ossoff or Cunningham will now go for Perdue/Tillis because of the supreme court.

[swf541]

All these polls are basically void now because the SC Nomination is going to be a seismic shift in the race.

Is it really?

I dont see how it changes any of the fundamentals

Any incumbent Republican not named Martha McSally, Susan Collins, or Cory Gardener just saw their chances of re-election skyrocket.

That doesn't change the presidential race which is what this part of the forum is for

I also fail to see how this helps the GOP incumbents in GA or NC

Republican voters who might have voted for Ossoff or Cunningham will now go for Perdue/Tillis because of the supreme court.

This makes little sense, the supreme court was already an issue, if the confirmation happens prior to the election it actually becomes even less of an issue.

[wbrocks67]

All these polls are basically void now because the SC Nomination is going to be a seismic shift in the race.

Is it really?

I dont see how it changes any of the fundamentals

Any incumbent Republican not named Martha McSally, Susan Collins, or Cory Gardener just saw their chances of re-election skyrocket.

That doesn't change the presidential race which is what this part of the forum is for

I also fail to see how this helps the GOP incumbents in GA or NC

Republican voters who might have voted for Ossoff or Cunningham will now go for Perdue/Tillis because of the supreme court.

yeah this doesnt make any sense

[Tender Branson]

IA - DMR/Selzer:

45% - Trump
43% - Biden
  2% - Jorgensen
  1% - Hawkins
  1% - West
  2% - Others
  6% - Undecided

[KaiserDave]

IA - DMR/Selzer:

45% - Trump
43% - Biden
  2% - Jorgensen
  1% - Hawkins
  1% - West
  2% - Others
  6% - Undecided

Should probably junk just to be safe because of RBG, but this is a good poll for Joe and I don't expect her death to change much.

[Tender Branson]

IA - DMR/Selzer:

45% - Trump
43% - Biden
  2% - Jorgensen
  1% - Hawkins
  1% - West
  2% - Others
  6% - Undecided

Should probably junk just to be safe because of RBG, but this is a good poll for Joe and I don't expect her death to change much.

That's only my prediction, not the actual poll ...

IA has a huge amount of third parties on the ballot, so I expect no candidate to reach 50% on election day.

[KaiserDave]

IA - DMR/Selzer:

45% - Trump
43% - Biden
  2% - Jorgensen
  1% - Hawkins
  1% - West
  2% - Others
  6% - Undecided

Should probably junk just to be safe because of RBG, but this is a good poll for Joe and I don't expect her death to change much.

That's only my prediction, not the actual poll ...

IA has a huge amount of third parties on the ballot, so I expect no candidate to reach 50% on election day.

Ah
My statement will probably apply to the eventual poll anyways

[GeorgiaModerate]

IA - DMR/Selzer:

45% - Trump
43% - Biden
  2% - Jorgensen
  1% - Hawkins
  1% - West
  2% - Others
  6% - Undecided

Should probably junk just to be safe because of RBG, but this is a good poll for Joe and I don't expect her death to change much.

That's a prediction.  The poll won't be released until 6pm CDT.

Everyone: it would be helpful to label predictions in this thread as such.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The next week is gonna be so annoying for polls. I almost think it'd be better to stymie new poll discussions until we get some conducted after this weekend

Either no one will take them seriously or we'll get 2 pages of folks telling you not to take them seriously

Ugh, now I'm thinking about after next week if a couple polls (regardless of quality) showed even minimal movement towards Trump in the swing states. After yesterday, I don't think this board (or a good chunk of it) can survive another 2 months of this election

[wbrocks67]

The next week is gonna be so annoying for polls. I almost think it'd be better to stymie new poll discussions until we get some conducted after this weekend

Either no one will take them seriously or we'll get 2 pages of folks telling you not to take them seriously

Ugh, now I'm thinking about after next week if a couple polls (regardless of quality) showed even minimal movement towards Trump in the swing states.

well luckily i think that a lot of the high quality pollsters will want to get in the field (nationally at least) this weekend thru this upcoming week before the debate, so we should get some good stuff very soon

[wbrocks67]

Was hoping we would get a new ABC/Wapo tonight but haven't seen anything on it. Hoping we atleast get YouGov/CBS and NBC/WSJ tomorrow AM

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1307502491001593857