Census Estimates for 2005 -> 2010 apportionment

[muon2]

The Census Bureau released its estimates of the populations in each state for July 1, 2005. A press release and excel file contain the official info.

As in previous years I have used this data to project the House apportionment for 2010. My methodology and projections follow.

The Census provides an apportionment population and base residential population for April 1, 2000. The apportionment population includes residents out of state such as overseas military personnel. An annual rate is calculated from the base population and the new estimate (July 1, 2005) using a period of 5.25 years. The annual rate is applied to the base population for a period of 10 years, and the difference between the 2000 apportionment population and base population is added. This results in a projected apportionment population for each state.

The House seats are apportioned on the priority method used for past decennial reapportionments. Each state is assigned one seat. An average number of residents per seat is calulated each state with the current seat assignment and for an assignment of one additional seat. The priority is calculated for each state by taking the geometric mean of those two averages. The state with the highest priority is given the next seat, and its next priority is calculated. The process continues until 435 seats are assigned.

The 2010 projections would result in these changes:

AZ +2
CA +1
FL +3
GA +1
IL -1
IA -1
LA -1
MA -1
MI -1
MN -1
MO -1
NV +1
NY -2
OH -2
PA -1
TX +3
UT +1

The following states were the last to get seats: 431 AL-7, 432 PA-18, 433 CA-54, 434 AZ-10, 435 FL-28.

These states would be next in line to get seats: 436 MN-8, 437 MI-15, 438 NY-36, 439 IL-19, 440 LA-7.

Compared to the 2004 estimates this is one additional seat for AZ and FL, and one less for MI and MN.

Note that this does not include the affects of relocations due to Katrina which occurred after the date of the estimates. To test the effects I moved 300K from LA in 2010 and assigned 150K to TX, 50K to GA and 20K to each of AR, CA, NC, SC, and TN. That amount of movement had no effect on the reapportionment, though MO would be at priority 440 instead of LA.

[muon2]

What happens when seats are taken away from a state? Is the congressman just booted out? or what?

The reapportionment does not take effect in the middle of a session; it only takes effect at the end of one term and the beginning of another. Thus, there would be no need to kick out a congressman.

Yes. The Census will release its 2010 apportionment data near the end of December that year. The states will create new districts during 2011 using their various rules. Candidates then file for the new districts for the 2012 elections, and the new districts are official when Congress is seated in 2013. The one state that is an exception is ME, which if it continues as for the last cycle, draws its map later and will have new districts for the 2014 election.

[muon2]

I was wondering, is there any way to find a list of all 50 states in order of how fast they're growing?

The Census Bureau has files that include the rankings by total population growth and percent.  There are files for annual change from 7/1/04 to 7/1/05 and cumulative change from 4/1/00 to 7/1/05.

[muon2]

MN -1

Some thing wrong with their brain

Don't panic yet. MN would get seat number 436 so it wouldn't take much extra growth to get them back to 435 or less. Think expansive thoughts.

[muon2]

Nice muon.  Thanks.  Just FYI, here are some estimates of the numbers of Katrina evacuees who still remain in various states (most come from LA):

TX 177000
MS 73000
GA 40000
FL 23000
AL 22000
... and about 20 other states have between 1 and 5000.

Source:  American Red Cross.

Hard to say how many of these will remain till the next decennial census, though.

I'm hoping that the Census will note relocations in their estimates for next year. The estimate is for July 1, and there should be a noticeable shift for those states heavily affected by evacuees.

[muon2]

New York is losing another 2 seats!  I can't believe it!  New York has set a record for fastest drop in electoral votes.  We've lost 16 votes and our drop only started in 1950!  This is definitely a disappointment, but I guess I expected it.

The Census Bureau just released estimates of domestic migration. The numbers explain NY's problem. The state has lost an average of 183,000 people per year since 2000 to other states. That is due to losses in the NYC metro area with an annual outmigration of 211,000 per year to other states. Birth rates and foreign immigration can't make up for this and provide the extra growth needed to mtach the national averages.

[muon2]

Now I have a question.  Who in their right mind is moving to Utah.  They are picking up a vote?  Is this migration or birth?

UT has a net outmigration of about 10 K / year. It also has the highest birthrate in the nation, which more than makes up for any outmigration. It is interesting to note that UT was a net inmigration state in the 90's, but like the mountain west as a whole saw its domestic migration numbers drop in this decade.

[muon2]

What happens when seats are taken away from a state? Is the congressman just booted out? or what?

So you choose a victim.  Each of 4 surrounding districts takes up 150,000 of the eliminated district, and then loses 84,000 to other districts further away.  The representative who lost his district, then is faced with running in one of the other districts, where he must face an incumbent who represented 516,000 of the residents, while he only has represented 150,000 of them.  If the redistricters are clever, the 150,000 don't include anyone from the victim's town except his immediate street.

This was the exact situation in 2001 in IL. Rep. Phelps lost in the deal between the two party leaders in Congress in the state (Hastert and Lipinski). His district was split between three districts and most of his district went into CD 19. However, his home is in that tip extended from CD 15. He lost in 2002 when he ran in the new CD 19.