Warren would lose to Trump in a similar fashion to Clinton, CMV

[Cassandra]

Warren's base is overwhelming white and upper class. Clinton lost in large part because she failed to turn out low propensity voters who skew younger, less white, and more working class. Warren has the most difficulty reaching exactly those demographics. Therefore, she will go into any general election at a major disadvantage to Trump as compared to almost any other potential Democratic nominee.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

This is my main concern about Warren’s campaign. I like her better than Biden and Sanders as a candidate, but I’m worried that she’s becoming even more of a boujee white liberal candidate than Mayor Pete in terms of where her support comes from.

[President Johnson]

I think Liz would win a general election against Trump, but her path isn't as wide as Joe Biden's. She's not a good fit for the Sun Belt, so she relies on winning at least with the 278 electoral votes map. Of course this could change by election day in either direction.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Warren's base is overwhelming white and upper class. Clinton lost in large part because she failed to turn out low propensity voters who skew younger, less white, and more working class. Warren has the most difficulty reaching exactly those demographics. Therefore, she will go into any general election at a major disadvantage to Trump as compared to almost any other potential Democratic nominee.

Based on what data?

[redeagleofficial]

She has the worst of Hillary and the worst of Bernie.  Hard pass, Trump wins the PV.

[cvparty]

Warren's base is overwhelming white and upper class. Clinton lost in large part because she failed to turn out low propensity voters who skew younger, less white, and more working class. Warren has the most difficulty reaching exactly those demographics. Therefore, she will go into any general election at a major disadvantage to Trump as compared to almost any other potential Democratic nominee.

Based on what data?

all of it?

[DrScholl]

The problem with that logic is that Trump as an incumbent and Trump as a candidate are two different animals. The election will swing on 100,000 votes across three states that Democrats won every statewide office up for election in 2018. Just about any of the candidates can defeat Trump easily.

[Xing]

Warren didn't start this cycle as the presumptive nominee with almost all elected Democrats lined up behind her. While no doubt Republicans will try, the argument that Warren is an "establishment/career politicians" will not be as effective as it was against Clinton, especially since Trump now is the "political establishment." Not to mention, while some on the left are still skeptical of Warren because reasons, there's nowhere near the resistance to Warren on the progressive left as there was to Clinton, since her policies are significantly closer to Sanders's. Part of the reason Clinton lost is that Democratic turnout was down, and Democrats lost a fair number of voters to Third Party candidates, and I think Warren would definitely improve on Clinton in this regard.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Meh, if she runs as terrible and sucky a campaign as Clinton's in 2016 then Warren probably loses. If she runs a good one then she probably wins. Nothing is preordained.

[User157088589849]

Warren is a train wreck of  candidate in the midwest and Sunbelt.

She could lose Nevada. She will find Minnesota very tough. Iowa, Wisconsin will vote trump. Pennsylvania will be difficult. Arizona definitely no. She will rack up votes in coastal areas and get crushed in places like Ohio. Virginia could be awkward. Warren is a bad fit for Florida too.

[DrScholl]

Warren is a train wreck of  candidate in the midwest and Sunbelt.

She could lose Nevada. She will find Minnesota very tough. Iowa, Wisconsin will vote trump. Pennsylvania will be difficult. Arizona definitely no. She will rack up votes in coastal areas and get crushed in places like Ohio. Virginia could be awkward. Warren is a bad fit for Florida too.

This has got to be trolling No one could seriously think that Warren would have trouble in Nevada and Virginia. Knock it off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Joe Kennedy is campaigning for Warren and whomever she picks will have just as much WWC appeal as Biden: Beto or Buttigieg.  This is why neither of them have gone after Warren after the debate. This is a myth that Warren wont appeal to general public. This is why we have Veeps

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Warren's base is overwhelming white and upper class. Clinton lost in large part because she failed to turn out low propensity voters who skew younger, less white, and more working class. Warren has the most difficulty reaching exactly those demographics. Therefore, she will go into any general election at a major disadvantage to Trump as compared to almost any other potential Democratic nominee.

What abject nonsense.

Even if there's a higher proportion of white and upper class people who are pro-Warren, this doesn't mean that 1) it's the primary trait of her base and 2) that people outside that descriptor wouldn't vote for her.

The fact is that despite what you may see from Twitter eggs and bots, Warren has one of the highest candidate enthusiasm ratings in the field (listed as 70% enthusiastic or comfortable with the idea of a Warren candidacy source), is the second-choice candidate for many voters (i.e., the second choice of Biden supporters, Harris supporters, and Buttigieg supporters, and the third choice among Sanders supporters, all at or above 25% for each group, source one, source two), and as of this week she has the highest net favorability in the field, edging out Sanders and Biden by 6-7% (source). She's the candidate with the most consistent and sustained rise in favorabilities and support over the course of the election cycle. She is the only candidate who has had an increase in favorability ratings after each debate. In fact, a recent poll found that 10% of respondents would be disappointed with a Warren candidacy while 20 - 25% said they would be disappointed in a Biden or Sanders candidacy (source)

This narrative that Warren is somehow only the favored candidate of cushy white voters is inane propaganda pushed by disingenuous hardcore Sanders fans. The conclusion, that she would turn out fewer voters like Hillary, is completely unfounded and completely misses the fact that Clinton was a scandal-plagued Washington insider and largely viewed as "untrustworthy" by the average voter. If you use any metric other than poorly-behaved and petulant followers on Twitter then Warren is currently more likely to turn out base voters than Sanders. You all will have to ramp up your misinformation campaign if you really want to tank her favorabile ratings.

She has the worst of Hillary and the worst of Bernie.

Lmao what? The worst of Hillary is literally 25 years of being under intense focus from the right. Warren has nothing that even comes close the server scandal, let alone even dumber and less plausible scandals like Whitewater, Vince Foster, Pizzagate, etc.

Unless, by "worst of Hillary", you mean she's a woman. Which come on. That's exactly what you're saying.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The concern trolling is strong with this thread.

If support from black voters in the primary is an indication on how likely they are to turn out for that candidate in the general election, Clinton shouldn't have had any trouble at all considering she dominated among them in 2016...

Anyway, unlike a lot of people on here, I wasn't born yesterday and actually remembers a few elections that happened before 2016. The arguments against Warren remind me a whole lot about the arguments people who didn't like Obama in 08 used against him during the primary. He was too left-wing for the general public, as is Warren now. The Jeremiah Wright Scandal would kill him, just like Warren's native american stuff will kill her. Clinton would win a decisive victory according to polling while Obama would make it a toss-up at best, just like Biden polls better against Trump than Warren right now.

Catch yourself on, people! The suburban women who has been running away from Trump since 2016, are extremely unlikely to return to him no matter the D candidate, unless that candidate runs a seriously bad campaign based entirely on reparations, open-boarders and increasing taxes. The left-wing voters who stayed home or voted third party last time because they thought the race was a safe win or that Trump wouldn't be as bad as he seemed, won't think that again.

Now, candidate quality matters and I've had my own worries about Warren, but so far in the campaign I think she has demonstrated an ability to win over new voters, grow her support, appeal across the political spectrum. Something Clinton failed to do in '16. So, where Warren to win the nomination, I'm not worried any longer.

Naturally, if Warren doesn't improve with minority voters, it'll be hard for her to win the nomination to start with, but we're still months away from the first voters voting, so there is still plenty of time for her to start winning them over.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Warren would be a terrible candidate for the economy and markets worldwide. She was interesting to listen to when she was a senator, but it isn't so funny now that she seems to have a shot at the nomination.

I don't think she could build on Hillary's coalition. I voted for Hillary but I could never vote for Warren.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Warren's base is overwhelming white and upper class. Clinton lost in large part because she failed to turn out low propensity voters who skew younger, less white, and more working class. Warren has the most difficulty reaching exactly those demographics. Therefore, she will go into any general election at a major disadvantage to Trump as compared to almost any other potential Democratic nominee.

Did you support Bernie last time? Because he was blown out with black voters by 50 points and Latinos by 30 and I doubt you were making the case for Clinton over him lol.

The only minority voters coalesced around Joe Biden are old black people- who will vote in the general regardless of the nominee. Everyone else is shopping around among the many candidates. Warren has broken into double digits with black voters and is competitive with Latinos in this fractured field.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stop with these Warren doomsday scenarios. The only reason why Biden is in trouble due to what he said about blacks and busing. There is a hidden female vote out there and females are sensitive about what Biden said about Blacks not equal to Whites going to school.

Remember women were instrumental in also Civil Rights movt too: Rosa Parks, Oprah Winfrey and Coretta Scott King. Not to mention: Jackie Kennedy and Ethal Kennedy

[pbrower2a]

In view of the President's collapse of credibility, any coherent and credible opponent will defeat him in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP keep comparing Obama and his approvals to Trump, Obama had 10% unemployed, Trump has 4% unemployment, Trump approvals should be at 53%

[NeverAgainsSock]

Didn't she do better than Hillary among rural, working class voters in 2018?

[eric82oslo]

The GOP keep comparing Obama and his approvals to Trump, Obama had 10% unemployed, Trump has 4% unemployment, Trump approvals should be at 53%

53% is to put it nicely. I'd say 60%+ for sure.

Then again, that's why we have Andrew Yang, to change the measurements of the economy.

[Hermit For Peace]

In view of the President's collapse of credibility, any coherent and credible opponent will defeat him in 2020.

Not according to Trump's illustrious base. They don't care about credibility or coherency in a President. Trump's gonna win this because he's "keeping his promises" and doling out money to the rich and placing big business above the quality of our environment. That's what counts for them. Trump is good for business. To heck with the little guy.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Just want to highlight another poll that shows no appreciable difference in support for Warren/Sanders by education type.



This is, I believe, a data for progress poll. Category 1 corresponds to non-college educated. Out of 495 respondents it's obviously hard to draw inference (e.g. 11.06% of the sample means 54 respondents) but still these numbers are pretty comparable between education type and candidate.

[West_Midlander]

Warren would be on a knife's edge in a general election imo, I think the election would lean Trump and it would be really close, she would probably get 250s to low 270s in the electoral.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the naysayers that think Warren is gonna lose, watch and see how she will thump Biden in IA, NH, NV and Cali next yr


We already have a racial sterotypical president, we dont need another one in Biden