KS-Sen: Kobach trails Grissom by 10 in NRSC internal

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

I don’t think that, but I don’t buy him losing a Senate race by 10 points with Trump on the ballot after he just lost a gubernatorial race in a blue wave by only half that margin. I think this is just McConnell trying to put his thumb on the scale like he did in trying to get Moore to drop out in Alabama

Oh yeah, he definitely wouldn't lose by 10 points, that's for sure. But it definitely pours cold water all over the "Kobach is inevitable even though he just lost less than a year ago because something something Senate vs. gubernatorial!" takes. I mean really, does anyone genuinely believe that if you turned Kobach vs. Kelly into a Senate race and kept literally everything else (including his -20 approval rating) identical he would've won in a landslide in 2018? At best he would've won narrowly.

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

Where

Multiple posters in the megathread.

IIRC you were among those doing so (could’ve been IndyRep though).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

IIRC you were among those doing so (could’ve been IndyRep though).

Uh, no? It could not have been IndyRep because IndyRep never bought the "Kobach is inevitable/this race is Safe R" takes. So what are you talking about?

It must’ve been IceSpear then, but I remember one of the main posters who dabbles in your guys schtick was pretty dismissive of the possibility Kobach could even come close to losing.  I suppose there’s also that L-NJ guy, but don’t think it was him.  Btw, any particular reason you’re referring to yourself in third person?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It must’ve been IceSpear then, but I remember one of the main posters who dabbles in your guys schtick

What schtick, out of curiosity? I’m actually fairly cautious when it comes to predicting races in most swing/red states (with some exceptions like KY-SEN, but certainly not KY-GOV or KS-SEN). And while I do believe that trends are indeed real, I certainly don’t think they’re the only factor which matters (I have MN-07 2020 and MS-GOV/KY-GOV 2019 all as Tossup/Tilt R, for instance).

You guys tend to do the whole "B-B-But Atlas told me [insert thing some poster said a month ago]" thing a lot, no offense.  Although tbf, you guys are both right a lot more often than not.