Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This has the following code:

Dark red/blue = probable gain
medium red/blue = certain hold
light red/blue =  probable hold
medium green = Vermont
light green= no race

Right now I see a net +4 for the Dems, but I'm basing this in part on a gut feeling that 2006 is not going to be a good year for the GOP.  Bush seems determined to enable to let the Democrats run as the party in favor of liberty and the constitution. Giving the Dems a chance to run for something instead of against the GOP will probably help them gain several of the close races. The current scandals will hurt the GOP, but by themselves they aren't enough to account for the swing I currently foresee, even if we have some convinctions and or confessions before the election, since most voters will just see the Dems as merely not having the opportunity, not as being more honest.

A net +7 is the best the Dems can hope for, while the GOP could see a net +3.

This also assumes that Chafee wins the GOP nomination, if not then the seat is a certain Democratic gain.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I know Ensign doesn't have high negatives, but he doesn't have high positives either, and if mid-terms turn national and pro-Democratic as I think they will, those low positives leave him vulnerable in my opinion.  Jack Carter is well positioned family-wise if this race ends up turning on civil liberties and personal integrity.  Say what you will about his father's ability as President, (and I won't disagree too loudly if you do) he has a strong reputation in those two areas which as of today look likely to be key in the 2006 election.

On the other hand, if I'm wrong about where the focus of the campaign will be, we'll probably end up with a boring mid-term with a net swing of at most two seats either way.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The GOP has consolidated around a single candidate who can afford to wait to spend his money and his political capital until after the primary, so I think the bickering between all the Dems for the open seat will give the GOP the edge, especially if Mfume can make it into a primary runoff.  If Sarbanes weren't retiring it would be a certain Dem hold, but that isn't the case.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

How is it that people can make maps with Red, Blue, Green and Gray states? I can only get Red/Blue/Grey or Red/Blue/Green for any map with the current 50 states on it.

Two possibilities:

1. They took the map and altered it in a paint program and saved it as a file on the internet.

2. The URL for the maps created by the generator have a number of entrues of the form &XX;#;#;#  where XX is the two letter postal code for the state, the first number is color where 0=gray;1=red;2=blue;3=green, the second number is the number of EV's, and the thirs level is the decile from 3 to 9 (30% to 90%).  So if one alters the URL by hand, one can use the generator to create maps that the UI cannot.  Note also:  Gray doesn't change shade according to the decile and if the generator isn't expecting to use green for a particular year, you get gray instead, but with white numbers instead of black numbers as is usual for gray.