KY: Beshear wins endorsement from Fraternal Order of Police

[DINGO Joe]

I'll guess I'll dare be the one that raises the question: is it possible Appalachia is simply more racist today than it was in the 1980s? Note that the Virginia coal counties voted for Doug Wilder in 1989 then had Republican swings in 2008.

Well, the coal counties in VA have fewer people, fewer coal miners, and more prisons and jail guards than they did in 1989, though it's not a place where different people moved in.  They just died off or left.  I suppose that the ones that stayed could be more racist hickey than the ones that left.

It is fun to look at a county like McDowell WV which cast like 35,000 votes in the 50s and cast 6,000 in 2016.  Or Buchanan, Dickenson and Wise cast a total of 26,000 votes in the 1989 election while Loudoun cast 21,000 and in 2018 those three managed 21,000 while Loudoun cast 168,000. 

[Fuzzy Bear]

It's even more idiotic if you think Edwards has a chance in Louisiana and/or Hood has a chance in Mississippi but not Beshear in Kentucky. There is absolutely no logical reason to believe those two can win but not Beshear.

This is the bottom line.  The Democratic Party is still stronger in KY than in MS and LA at the local and state level, and Bevin is the most unpopular incumbent of the bunch who has made an enemy of the leading GOP figure in his state (McConnell).

[darklordoftech]

I'll guess I'll dare be the one that raises the question: is it possible Appalachia is simply more racist today than it was in the 1980s? Note that the Virginia coal counties voted for Doug Wilder in 1989 then had Republican swings in 2008.

I guess it’s possible that not-racists moved out of Appalachia, leaving racists behind.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Well, 739 posts, it didn’t used to be this bad, so thanks for your contributions.

How do I insert the Doofy salute picture here

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'll guess I'll dare be the one that raises the question: is it possible Appalachia is simply more racist today than it was in the 1980s? Note that the Virginia coal counties voted for Doug Wilder in 1989 then had Republican swings in 2008.

Those people are probably yellow dogs and a lot of them would have died by 2008

[pbrower2a]

LMAO , if Appalachia was so racist why did they trend D in the 1970s and 1980s while the Deep South Trended Hard R(It was more D relative to the Nation in 1988 compared to 1968).

The Reagan administration was viewed as anti-union, especially after the crackdown on the air traffic controllers’ strike in 1981. Back then, union membership in Appalachia was quite high so this should easily explain the D trend there at least in that decade. It also explains why Reagan/Bush tended to run well behind their statewide numbers in the Appalachian parts of states like KY, OH, PA and VA.

The point he’s making is worth noting.  Democrats weren’t like *open* about having any “racist” voters in 2012 or 2008 or 1994 or 1980 or any other year.  It’s only once voters leave their team are they appropriately labeled as amoral, subhuman trash, lol.  If their words rang hollow when I was on this site in 2012 or 2004 when I was growing up or 1980 when my parents were watching politics unfold ... what’s the point in listening to them yap about it in every thread now?  If rural Blacks shift 10% Republican in the next ten years, we’ll be reading some of these psychopaths talking about how “Yeah, there USED to be some way-too-religious, under-educated homophobe bumpkins from AL and MS in our party, but that was way back in 2018!  Trends have really accelerated since then.”  I’ll wait until 20xx when the Democratic Party is fully *perfect* to give a shlt about the type of “analysis” that is as intellectually stimulating as “Black voters in Chicago would never vote Republican because they’re an assortment of adjectives I find despicable.”

That elementary BS belongs on other sites, regardless of who’s President.

Racism, homophobia, and religious bigotry are all abominable. People used to get away with those, and they don't now.

We are in a time of gutter politics in which identity largely decides who votes and how. It will take a shared danger to cause Americans to congeal behind some benign leader with a transformative agenda. Maybe the gutter politics will create the danger that could include a politician taking it out on his political opponents in the form of economic decisions that ruin those people -- and bring about a depression, starting a war for profits which brings quick profits to warmongers but turns into a calamity, or gives us hyperinflation.

I strongly encourage liberals to quit talking about "rednecks", "hillbillies", and "trailer trash". Mountain South culture is as valid as, for example, Italian-American culture. (I would probably fit in better in Italian-American culture, Mafia groupies excluded, than in Mountain South culture, even if I am not an Italian-American). Don't disparage the manufactured housing which might be a more rational way of dealing with land and housing shortages. I have visited such places in Census work and political canvassing.. and the population living in such places is far more diverse than stereotypes suggest. To be sure, that excludes people with upscale income -- but far better the Hispanic farm laborer on the whole, the retired couple that downsized, or fast-food worker than the late Jeffrey Ep-swine with his mansions, "Lolita Express", and impressive connections at one time.

Appalachia and the Ozarks are forgotten areas in America... and what is to say that people who live there do not want to join the economic mainstream? They have no obligation to conform to the norms of any other culture in America. Just take formal education seriously, and get a chance even in a plutocratic society.       

[KaiserDave]

I'm still inclined to say Bevin is the favorite, but c'mon, Safe R has gotta be a stretch.

[Orwell]

I'm still inclined to say Bevin is the favorite, but c'mon, Safe R has gotta be a stretch.

[Donerail]

Kind of worthless anecdote this forum thrives on: saw a lot of signs for Conway for Ag Commissioner in Scott County today. Presumably his base, since that's where he grew up, but still interesting to note. Saw a couple in Frankfort too.

[pbrower2a]

Incumbents usually win, but Bevin looks like an exception.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Incumbents usually win, but Bevin looks like an exception.

KY still has a lot of local Democratic pols who are supporting Beshear.

[Oryxslayer]

Incumbents usually win, but Bevin looks like an exception.

Incumbents when considering state elections tend to be favored until they F up massively, at which point the probilities stack up hard against their reelection. If Bevin was in a less-but-still-GOP state, like SC, MO, or IN, we would not be having this 'will-he-won't-he' discussion. The deme who had been nominated would be winning this hypothetical 2019 contest, and everyone would have agree to some sort of deme ranking.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Incumbents usually win, but Bevin looks like an exception.

Incumbents when considering state elections tend to be favored until they F up massively, at which point the probilities stack up hard against their reelection. If Bevin was in a less-but-still-GOP state, like SC, MO, or IN, we would not be having this 'will-he-won't-he' discussion. The deme who had been nominated would be winning this hypothetical 2019 contest, and everyone would have agree to some sort of deme ranking.

Rick Scott and Paul LePage were pretty unpopular in 2014 and they still won reelection despite being in states less favorable than any of the ones you listed.

[Oryxslayer]

Incumbents usually win, but Bevin looks like an exception.

Incumbents when considering state elections tend to be favored until they F up massively, at which point the probilities stack up hard against their reelection. If Bevin was in a less-but-still-GOP state, like SC, MO, or IN, we would not be having this 'will-he-won't-he' discussion. The deme who had been nominated would be winning this hypothetical 2019 contest, and everyone would have agree to some sort of deme ranking.

Rick Scott and Paul LePage were pretty unpopular in 2014 and they still won reelection despite being in states less favorable than any of the ones you listed.

And they had the wind at their backs. Which the GOP lacks in 2019.

[henster]

Is Bevin Tom Corbett or is he Sam Brownback?

[IceSpear]

Is Bevin Tom Corbett or is he Sam Brownback?

He's Muhry Fallin.

Corbett lost by 10 points in PA, he obviously would've won re-election in KY.

[Suburbia]

Will this hurt Beshear with black voters?

[IceSpear]

Will this hurt Beshear with black voters?

Did you mean to post this in the Mississippi thread?

[Suburbia]

Will this hurt Beshear with black voters?

Did you mean to post this in the Mississippi thread?

Kentucky has a large black population. The Louisville and Lexington areas. Will the FOP endorsement damage the Democrats with the BLM crowd?

[BuckeyeNut]

Will this hurt Beshear with black voters?

Did you mean to post this in the Mississippi thread?

Kentucky has a large black population. The Louisville and Lexington areas. Will the FOP endorsement damage the Democrats with the BLM crowd?

The national black population was 12.1% in the 2010 census. In Kentucky, the black population was only 7.8%.

Get out of here.