Xing's final prediction

[Xing]

I have less confidence in this prediction than just about any prediction I've previously made. While polling might seem pretty clear, the events of this year have made me second-guess a lot, and I feel like I'm guessing a lot of races. Don't worry, I'll own up to it if my prediction ends up being wrong, but here it is:

(>90% = Safe
>60% = Likely
>40% = Lean
>20% = Tilt)

President:

Biden/Harris - 388 EV (52.6%)
Trump/Pence - 150 EV (44.5%)

Some competitive states:
Alaska: Trump +7.1
Arizona: Biden +4.2
Colorado: Biden +11.8
Florida: Biden +0.6
Georgia: Biden +1.8
Iowa: Trump +3.9
Maine At-Large: Biden +8.2
ME-02: Trump +4.8
Michigan: Biden +5.7
Minnesota: Biden +6.9
NE-02: Biden +7.3
Nevada: Biden +10.2
New Hampshire: Biden +6.0
North Carolina: Biden +1.1
Ohio: Trump +2.8
Pennsylvania: Biden +4.7
Texas: Biden +0.3
Virginia: Biden +12.2
Wisconsin: Biden +5.1


Senate:

(FL represents GA-S)

Democrats - 51 seats
Republicans - 49 seats

Competitive races:
AL: Tuberville +13.5
AK: Sullivan +7
AZ: Kelly +6.5
CO: Hickenlooper +9.5
GA-R: Ossoff +1.5
GA-S (run-off): Loeffler +3
IA: Ernst +3
KS: Marshall +5.5
ME (after RCV): Gideon +3.5
MI: Peters +5.5
MN: Smith +6.5
MT: Daines +1.5
NC: Cunningham +2
SC: Graham +5
TX: Cornyn +2


Governor:

House: 245-190
Democrats gain: AZ-06, CA-25, GA-07, IN-05, MO-02, NC-02, NC-06, NE-02, NJ-02, PA-10, TX-03, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24
Republicans gain: MI-03, MN-07, NM-02, OK-05

[S019ian Liberal]

you have got tx shaded in both blue and red for president on here also, furthermore it's listed for biden but counted toward being added onto trump's EV total as well!

[ElectionsGuy]

Nevada: Biden +10.2

When are you going to give up your Nevada charade Xing? At some point, it's got to become tiring.

[Calthrina950]

Nevada: Biden +10.2

When are you going to give up your Nevada charade Xing? At some point, it's got to become tiring.

This election made it clear that Nevada is by no means gone for Republicans, and remains much more competitive for them than Colorado, New Mexico, or Virginia. Biden only won Nevada by about 2.7%, while carrying Virginia by slightly over 10%, New Mexico by nearly 11%, and Colorado by nearly 14%. Cortez-Masto will probably be one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in 2022.

[lfromnj]

Nevada: Biden +10.2

When are you going to give up your Nevada charade Xing? At some point, it's got to become tiring.

He did and he apologized for it, I get you were right but calm down and go after the smug idiots who think they were still right. Xing wasn't that bad besides the NV meme.

[Calthrina950]

Nevada: Biden +10.2

When are you going to give up your Nevada charade Xing? At some point, it's got to become tiring.

He did and he apologized for it, I get you were right but calm down and go after the smug idiots who think they were still right. Xing wasn't that bad besides the NV meme.

Also agreed. Xing was always one of the more realistic posters on here, and was skeptical that Biden would win by the margin that the polls indicated. His predictions concerning his own home state of Washington, moreover were startlingly accurate.

[Xing]

you have got tx shaded in both blue and red for president on here also, furthermore it's listed for biden but counted toward being added onto trump's EV total as well!

Fixed. I changed my prediction to Biden at the last minute (d'oh!) and didn't update the numbers. It seems like I shouldn't make any last minute changes to my predictions, because they always end up being wrong! (Throughout 2018, I had Democrats winning KS-GOV and losing OH-GOV, but I switched them the day before the election.)

Nevada: Biden +10.2

When are you going to give up your Nevada charade Xing? At some point, it's got to become tiring.

While you've generally been a good poster, I'd appreciate you dropping the "liberals living in a bubble" refrain you've been making over the past year. Yes, to an extent some are, but many simply looked at what the data said, and even though the data isn't always going to be right, it's at least better than why some Trump supporters didn't believe the polls (I don't like what these numbers say, so they must be wrong!) This "libs in a bubble" argument also gets very "tiring", since so many people already pretty much have it on loop, and it doesn't contribute to the conversation.

I've admitted that I was wrong about NV this year and why I was off (thanks lfromnj and Calthrina for pointing this out), and yes, I'll acknowledge that NV will remain competitive for the time being, though I think that the Washoe numbers should at least concern Republicans. I get that your predictions were better than most this year, but you'd had a bad tendency over the past few days to rub it in everyone's face, including in threads where people weren't necessarily wrong. You're better than this.

[Chips]

You were accurate for the most part.

[Xing]

You were accurate for the most part.

Thanks

[ElectionsGuy]

you have got tx shaded in both blue and red for president on here also, furthermore it's listed for biden but counted toward being added onto trump's EV total as well!

Fixed. I changed my prediction to Biden at the last minute (d'oh!) and didn't update the numbers. It seems like I shouldn't make any last minute changes to my predictions, because they always end up being wrong! (Throughout 2018, I had Democrats winning KS-GOV and losing OH-GOV, but I switched them the day before the election.)

Nevada: Biden +10.2

When are you going to give up your Nevada charade Xing? At some point, it's got to become tiring.

While you've generally been a good poster, I'd appreciate you dropping the "liberals living in a bubble" refrain you've been making over the past year. Yes, to an extent some are, but many simply looked at what the data said, and even though the data isn't always going to be right, it's at least better than why some Trump supporters didn't believe the polls (I don't like what these numbers say, so they must be wrong!) This "libs in a bubble" argument also gets very "tiring", since so many people already pretty much have it on loop, and it doesn't contribute to the conversation.

I've admitted that I was wrong about NV this year and why I was off (thanks lfromnj and Calthrina for pointing this out), and yes, I'll acknowledge that NV will remain competitive for the time being, though I think that the Washoe numbers should at least concern Republicans. I get that your predictions were better than most this year, but you'd had a bad tendency over the past few days to rub it in everyone's face, including in threads where people weren't necessarily wrong. You're better than this.

Ok, I'm sorry. I wasn't aware that you had said anything in regard to Nevada. The reason I chose that specifically and not anything else, is that you have been very forthright and confident that Nevada was a solid (or likely) Dem state, and wouldn't be close. It was similar but less obnoxious to how MT Treasurer was obsessed with the idea that Montana and Kansas would be more competitive than Iowa (which didn't come to fruition). It was a schtick, and it didn't age well. That's all, I recognize it wasn't the best thing I could've responded to in hindsight.

Here's the thing about my posting lately. I know it's been a bit abrasive, a bit polarizing, but I was told I was completely wrong all year. I was completely out of step with everybody else, including Republicans (we don't have real Republicans on this forum, more on that below). That screws with your head, and when it ends up that they were badly wrong and I ended up having a better grasp of how this thing turned out, yes I am going to point it out, not because I'm some narcissit who needs to give myself a pat on the back (I've had poor self-esteem for most of my life), but because they deserve some criticism for the amount of hostility they have thrown towards me or anybody with a different view (not to mention, the cliqueish nature for 10 people to jump on 1, which happened A LOT). If they can attack me and others for months and months before an election, can I at least talk about how badly they did for a few weeks, super confident while belittling and personally attacking others' intelligence or character (I'm not talking about you here)? Quality posters like FrenchRepublican literally stopped posting for months because he was sick and tired of the personal insults thrown towards him. It's not something that I'm just making up. I am defensive in nature, I'm trying not to bump threads or call out people unless they attack me or others unfairly, or are just so wrong while being arrogantly/smugly confident. I will not apologize for critiquing this behavior. I also try not to go down to their behavior of name calling and such, if you can point me to an instance where I participated in that kind of behavior, I will apologize for it and call it out myself.

I don't think ALL of my posting has been the "liberals living in a bubble" them that you've characterized. I post basic thoughts and analysis on elections without responding to a person or a common narrative a decent amount, but I have increased the proportion of my posts that have been pushback/critique in manner. The reason why is this place IS a bubble, a bad one. It has gotten much worse since Trump has become president. It's not only that it's 80/20 D/R, but the Independents and R's here are almost exclusively anti-Trump, unlike the real world, so it's even more skewed than it looks. You notice I don't talk about my personal opinions, like ever anymore? It's because of the kind of toxic name-calling and groupthink barriers that I've seen just browsing sections of the forum. You guys wonder why people don't want to talk to pollsters, maybe it's because the people know the media who conducts these polls despises them, has contempt for them, much like most of the posters on this forum has contempt for anyone who voted for Trump or has ANYTHING positive to say about him. How many times did I get called a Trump supporter, just because I thought he was going to do better than the polls suggested, to try and discredit me? It is clear as day, based on the stuff most of you guys post (again, I'm not talking specifically to you here) that many of y'all do not interact with ANY person who has significantly different political beliefs. If you did, you'd have more respect and open-mindedness, instead of assuming the worst about people right off the bat.

Years ago, I wouldn't be afraid to spill my own view into the individual politics area of the forum, because generally, I didn't get people questioning my sanity or intelligence. Nowadays, just by looking at what some of you people post I know I would be ganged up on and called names if I posted my views on what's going on in the world today (which aren't extreme at all, but much more right-wing than the average person here) People generally respond by saying this is a way more high-quality discussion board than most forums and comments sections, to dismiss these criticisms. And while that's true, we still should be above that, and engage in actual conversations instead of one line responses like "so stupid". What does it say that I've been reluctant to share ANY of my actual political views when I previously wasn't? My personal confidence has increased with my age, but I just don't want to deal with unnecessary ad hominem attacks. My views, if anything, have gotten more LIBERAL over the years, and this forum hasn't necessarily gotten more liberal, but it has gotten more culturally insular and the TOLERANCE for anybody outside a narrow range of thoughts is lower than ever. That's the problem.

That's why I am the way I am now. I will scale back some of my critiquing if I get the sense that it changes for the better, but I will continue to call out BS when I see it, unapologetically.

[Xing]

Thanks for opening up and expressing how you feel. I'd definitely agree that the quality of the forum has gone down this year, and there definitely is a least a group of posters who are hostile to anyone who doesn't agree with them or their analysis (I think that there are many Democrats here to whom that doesn't apply, but I definitely see where you're coming from.) Heck, some people mocked me for being skeptical of polls showing Greenfield ahead, even though I obviously wanted her to win. It is a real problem, and I'm not sure how to address it, but I'd say try to go after the people who are actually doing this. You're a quality poster, and I think you've done a pretty good job of keeping bias out of your predictions, which is more than I can say for a lot of posters here. That's why I was disappointed to see some of your posts. We need good posters who try and improve the quality of the forum, and too often, better posters end up getting affected by a toxic environment. There are definitely good right-wing posters here, and I think at least several red avatars would acknowledge them as good posters, even if they disagree. The liberal bubble does exist, and it even annoys me, both here and at my job, but there are definitely liberals who are willing to engage with those who disagree.

I definitely lost some friends here by supporting Sanders and voicing my criticism of Democrats rushing behind Biden merely to block Sanders, so I know how intolerant some on this forum (and honestly, in real life) can be. I think that it's perfectly fine to point out that you were right about certain things in this election, and that there were some signs that 2020 wouldn't be as good of a year for Democrats as expected. Just try to do it without going after posters who didn't mock you, since I don't think I ever went beyond merely disagreeing with some of your predictions. And its good to acknowledge posters who admit that they were wrong, and try to understand what they got wrong. Not everyone is doing that, of course, but admitting to being wrong about something is really lacking in our culture in general, and should be pointed out and encouraged.

I'm sorry that you feel like you can't express your opinions here anymore. Unfortunately, sometimes part of being on a forum or any kind of public space is that there will always be people who attack you for believing certain things. I hope that you express your opinions, and feel like you can engage with a least some posters here, and let's call out toxic posting from the people who are doing it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the polls predicted a GREENFIELD victory and she lost

[S019ian Liberal]

you have got tx shaded in both blue and red for president on here also, furthermore it's listed for biden but counted toward being added onto trump's EV total as well!

Fixed. I changed my prediction to Biden at the last minute (d'oh!) and didn't update the numbers. It seems like I shouldn't make any last minute changes to my predictions, because they always end up being wrong! (Throughout 2018, I had Democrats winning KS-GOV and losing OH-GOV, but I switched them the day before the election.)

Nevada: Biden +10.2

When are you going to give up your Nevada charade Xing? At some point, it's got to become tiring.

While you've generally been a good poster, I'd appreciate you dropping the "liberals living in a bubble" refrain you've been making over the past year. Yes, to an extent some are, but many simply looked at what the data said, and even though the data isn't always going to be right, it's at least better than why some Trump supporters didn't believe the polls (I don't like what these numbers say, so they must be wrong!) This "libs in a bubble" argument also gets very "tiring", since so many people already pretty much have it on loop, and it doesn't contribute to the conversation.

I've admitted that I was wrong about NV this year and why I was off (thanks lfromnj and Calthrina for pointing this out), and yes, I'll acknowledge that NV will remain competitive for the time being, though I think that the Washoe numbers should at least concern Republicans. I get that your predictions were better than most this year, but you'd had a bad tendency over the past few days to rub it in everyone's face, including in threads where people weren't necessarily wrong. You're better than this.

Ok, I'm sorry. I wasn't aware that you had said anything in regard to Nevada. The reason I chose that specifically and not anything else, is that you have been very forthright and confident that Nevada was a solid (or likely) Dem state, and wouldn't be close. It was similar but less obnoxious to how MT Treasurer was obsessed with the idea that Montana and Kansas would be more competitive than Iowa (which didn't come to fruition). It was a schtick, and it didn't age well. That's all, I recognize it wasn't the best thing I could've responded to in hindsight.

Here's the thing about my posting lately. I know it's been a bit abrasive, a bit polarizing, but I was told I was completely wrong all year. I was completely out of step with everybody else, including Republicans (we don't have real Republicans on this forum, more on that below). That screws with your head, and when it ends up that they were badly wrong and I ended up having a better grasp of how this thing turned out, yes I am going to point it out, not because I'm some narcissit who needs to give myself a pat on the back (I've had poor self-esteem for most of my life), but because they deserve some criticism for the amount of hostility they have thrown towards me or anybody with a different view (not to mention, the cliqueish nature for 10 people to jump on 1, which happened A LOT). If they can attack me and others for months and months before an election, can I at least talk about how badly they did for a few weeks, super confident while belittling and personally attacking others' intelligence or character (I'm not talking about you here)? Quality posters like FrenchRepublican literally stopped posting for months because he was sick and tired of the personal insults thrown towards him. It's not something that I'm just making up. I am defensive in nature, I'm trying not to bump threads or call out people unless they attack me or others unfairly, or are just so wrong while being arrogantly/smugly confident. I will not apologize for critiquing this behavior. I also try not to go down to their behavior of name calling and such, if you can point me to an instance where I participated in that kind of behavior, I will apologize for it and call it out myself.

I don't think ALL of my posting has been the "liberals living in a bubble" them that you've characterized. I post basic thoughts and analysis on elections without responding to a person or a common narrative a decent amount, but I have increased the proportion of my posts that have been pushback/critique in manner. The reason why is this place IS a bubble, a bad one. It has gotten much worse since Trump has become president. It's not only that it's 80/20 D/R, but the Independents and R's here are almost exclusively anti-Trump, unlike the real world, so it's even more skewed than it looks. You notice I don't talk about my personal opinions, like ever anymore? It's because of the kind of toxic name-calling and groupthink barriers that I've seen just browsing sections of the forum. You guys wonder why people don't want to talk to pollsters, maybe it's because the people know the media who conducts these polls despises them, has contempt for them, much like most of the posters on this forum has contempt for anyone who voted for Trump or has ANYTHING positive to say about him. How many times did I get called a Trump supporter, just because I thought he was going to do better than the polls suggested, to try and discredit me? It is clear as day, based on the stuff most of you guys post (again, I'm not talking specifically to you here) that many of y'all do not interact with ANY person who has significantly different political beliefs. If you did, you'd have more respect and open-mindedness, instead of assuming the worst about people right off the bat.

Years ago, I wouldn't be afraid to spill my own view into the individual politics area of the forum, because generally, I didn't get people questioning my sanity or intelligence. Nowadays, just by looking at what some of you people post I know I would be ganged up on and called names if I posted my views on what's going on in the world today (which aren't extreme at all, but much more right-wing than the average person here) People generally respond by saying this is a way more high-quality discussion board than most forums and comments sections, to dismiss these criticisms. And while that's true, we still should be above that, and engage in actual conversations instead of one line responses like "so stupid". What does it say that I've been reluctant to share ANY of my actual political views when I previously wasn't? My personal confidence has increased with my age, but I just don't want to deal with unnecessary ad hominem attacks. My views, if anything, have gotten more LIBERAL over the years, and this forum hasn't necessarily gotten more liberal, but it has gotten more culturally insular and the TOLERANCE for anybody outside a narrow range of thoughts is lower than ever. That's the problem.

That's why I am the way I am now. I will scale back some of my critiquing if I get the sense that it changes for the better, but I will continue to call out BS when I see it, unapologetically.

FF gt.