Emerson-CA: Biden 26, Sanders 26, Warren 20, Yang 7, Harris 6, Beto 5, Butti 4

[redjohn]

Warren vs Biden Race incoming. Biden NEEDS IA otherwise he's done.

Love the gymnastics to leave Sanders out of the conversation. He's leading in Nevada and tied/close in Iowa and New Hampshire. He's beating Warren by six in this very poll. This is by no means a Biden vs Warren race.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

California is a huge state & Harris' CA strength lies entirely in San Francisco Bay. Unless you're an 20+ year statewide institution like Feinstein, you can't expect home-state advantage to mount a successful presidential [primary] campaign in California.

The same thing will occur if/when Newsom runs for President.

[Zaybay]

Warren vs Biden Race incoming. Biden NEEDS IA otherwise he's done.

Biden doesn't need Iowa at all lol.

On the other hand Warren is in deep trouble if she can't beat Biden in 99% white populist states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

Yes, Biden certainly needs Iowa. So does Sanders. And so does Warren.

Iowa presents a large amount of attention, press, and support for whoever wins the state. Obama was able to gain tremendous momentum from winning IA.  While Clinton won the state in 2016, the fact that Sanders was really close changed the narrative and gave him a lot of momentum into NH. Iowa gave both of these campaigns a chance to win thanks to the narrative that was built after the votes were counted.

Perhaps if Biden had the same percentage nationally as Clinton did in both 2008 and 2016, around 50-60%, then yes, Biden could skip theoretically IA. But hes only at around 25-30%, while Warren and Sanders are clocking in around 20%. His position is rather tenuous, and there are a lot of undecideds who would likely switch to Warren or Sanders if they win the state, not to mention the fact that the Progressive who comes in 3rd would likely see a large shift of their base towards the Progressive who came in 1st due to consolidation.

Likewise, Biden winning IA would cement his status as a frontrunner and an electable candidate, and allow him to carry the momentum to a possible 4 state win. But if Sanders or Warren wins IA, then a possible 3/4 state sweep is possible(Biden likely wins SC no matter what).

While low in delegates, IA is likely going to be, just like it almost always is in recent Democratic Primaries, one of the most important states to win.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So 6 of the 8 California constitutional offices and a majority of the state senators endorsed someone who is behind Andrew Yang? Wow, those are some really useless endorsements.

[CatoMinor]

#Yangmentum. I imagine Harris will stay in until she gets 4th or 5th in South Carolina though.

[junior chįmp]

So 6 of the 8 California constitutional offices and a majority of the state senators endorsed someone who is behind Andrew Yang? Wow, those are some really useless endorsements.

Like ive always said: nobody cares about endorsements

[TrumpBritt24]

Wow, that's extremely embarrassing for Harris. Is her story really going to end with being scalped by Tulsi Gabbard of all people?

[John Dule]

She is still going on media talk shows, like Jimmy Kimmel, instead of having a media blitz with Newsom and Garcetti about homelessness.  Even Beto, who doesn't live in the state, is giving out school supplies to Cali homeless kids.

I said back in July, this will hurt her chances, but she is a San Francisco, not a Los Angeles Democrat

Can you stop posting this on every single Harris-related thread? Seriously, it's not going to do her any favors to tell people in Iowa that her home state is a drug-riddled homeless camp. Nobody really cares about this issue aside from the core urban voters who are going to vote for Democrats regardless. I get that this is important to you, but the suggestion that Kamala would be doing significantly better if she talked about homeless people in SF more often is just ludicrous.

[Canis]

2 polls with yang at 7% in california maybe its real I know a lot of real life yang supporters

[Mr. Morden]

The sample included 3 black Republicans, of whom 2 back Trump and 1 backs Walsh.  There were also 19 Asian Republicans, of whom 15 back Trump and the other 4 all back Sanford.

2016 Clinton primary voters:
Biden 35%
Warren 20%
Sanders 18%
Harris 8%

2016 Sanders primary voters:
Sanders 32%
Warren 26%
Biden 13%
Yang 11%

Biden leads in Northern Cal, Northern Central Valley, Bakersfield/Fresno.

Sanders leads in the LA metro.

Warren leads in the SF Bay Area, and SoCal excluding the LA metro.