Univision/UH: Cornyn +1

[MT Treasurer]

Seriously? Ted Cruz consistently underperforms generic R margins

Nope.

2012:

Romney 57.13%, Obama 41.35% (R+15.78)
Cruz 56.46%, Sadler 40.62% (R+15.84)

2018: Cruz wasn’t the only Republican to win by 3 points that year, and Republicans won the popular vote for House by roughly the same margin as Cruz.

[Politician]

Seriously? Ted Cruz consistently underperforms generic R margins

Nope.

2012:

Romney 57.13%, Obama 41.35% (R+15.78)
Cruz 56.46%, Sadler 40.62% (R+15.84)

2018: Cruz wasn’t the only Republican to win by 3 points that year, and Republicans won the popular vote for House by roughly the same margin as Cruz.

Nice try, but every statewide Republican onverperformed Cruz in 2016. Every satewide Republican except him won Tarrant County, all but Paxton won Williamson County, all but Paxton/Patrick/Miller won Jefferson and Nueces.

[MT Treasurer]

Nice try, but every statewide Republican onverperformed Cruz in 2016. Every satewide Republican except him won Tarrant County, all but Paxton won Williamson County, all but Paxton/Patrick/Miller won Jefferson and Nueces.

Paxton won by 3.5, Republicans won the popular vote for House by 3.4 (maybe something like 3.7 or 3.8 when you adjust for the uncontested Democratic seats), Cruz won by 2.6. What a dramatic underperformance by Cruz.

[Politician]

Nice try, but every statewide Republican onverperformed Cruz in 2016. Every satewide Republican except him won Tarrant County, all but Paxton won Williamson County, all but Paxton/Patrick/Miller won Jefferson and Nueces.

Paxton won by 3.5, Republicans won the popular vote for House by 3.4 (maybe something like 3.7 or 3.8 when you adjust for the uncontested Democratic seats), Cruz won by 2.6. What a dramatic underperformance by Cruz.

Abbott won by 13, Bush won by 10, Hegar won by 9, the rail commissioner candidate won by 10.

Also, rich of you to invoke the House Popular Vote when we're not allowed to use that to argue Iowa could vote Dem.

[MT Treasurer]

^"The incredibly popular incumbent governor won a non-federal race by 13 against a sacrificial lamb on a night when Republicans held Maryland by 12 points, it’s all because of Cruz and TX isn’t actually trending strongly Democratic!!!!"

[Politician]

^"The incredibly popular incumbent governor won a non-federal race by 13 against a sacrificial lamb on a night when Republicans held Maryland by 12 points, it’s all because of Cruz and TX isn’t actually trending strongly Democratic!!!!"

Demcorats literally couldn't defeat a guy under indictment in TX, but I'm sure that it's a Lean D state and that the Democrat will win it by more than in RI!

Also, you think Cornyn is a "weak candidate", but he's overperforming Trump by 6 points.

[Politician]

Demcorats literally couldn't defeat a guy under indictment in TX, but I'm sure that it's a Lean D state and that the Democrat will win it by more than in RI!

Yawn.

How do you feel, getting a taste of your own medicine!

[Nyvin]

Nice try, but every statewide Republican onverperformed Cruz in 2016. Every satewide Republican except him won Tarrant County, all but Paxton won Williamson County, all but Paxton/Patrick/Miller won Jefferson and Nueces.

Paxton won by 3.5, Republicans won the popular vote for House by 3.4 (maybe something like 3.7 or 3.8 when you adjust for the uncontested Democratic seats), Cruz won by 2.6. What a dramatic underperformance by Cruz.

Abbott won by 13, Bush won by 10, Hegar won by 9, the rail commissioner candidate won by 10.

Also, rich of you to invoke the House Popular Vote when we're not allowed to use that to argue Iowa could vote Dem.

All those numbers, except maybe Abbott's, are still pretty bad when compared to pre-2016 numbers.

[IceSpear]

Safe Republican and you’re in denial if you think otherwise.

So let me guess: you're one of the fine Americans who have already conveniently forgotten about 2018, right?

I believe he was one of the people predicting a red wave until the literal day of the election.

And now he's one of the people pretending 2018 never happened to suit his sky-is-falling narrative. Gotcha. Onto ignore!

It’s not sky is falling it’s tampering unrealistic optimism. It’s not wanting to make the same mistakes we’ve been making for a while. It’s being terrified that the way 35% of the population is literally brainwashed.

BUT... I didn’t predict a Red wave. I predicted a Dem house pickup of 10-15 seats, just shy of a takeover of the house. I predicted GOP picks up MO, IN, ND. Dems pick up AZ. So I was slightly more pessimistic on the house side and a push on the Senate

Being off by ~30 seats is hardly "slightly more pessimistic", lol.

And while it is true that most Atlas Democrats are indeed unrealistically optimistic (which I call them out for all the time), your problems/mistakes in particular seem to be the polar opposite.

By the way, 35% is way lowballing it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe Republican and you’re in denial if you think otherwise.

So let me guess: you're one of the fine Americans who have already conveniently forgotten about 2018, right?

I believe he was one of the people predicting a red wave until the literal day of the election.

And now he's one of the people pretending 2018 never happened to suit his sky-is-falling narrative. Gotcha. Onto ignore!

It’s not sky is falling it’s tampering unrealistic optimism. It’s not wanting to make the same mistakes we’ve been making for a while. It’s being terrified that the way 35% of the population is literally brainwashed.

BUT... I didn’t predict a Red wave. I predicted a Dem house pickup of 10-15 seats, just shy of a takeover of the house. I predicted GOP picks up MO, IN, ND. Dems pick up AZ. So I was slightly more pessimistic on the house side and a push on the Senate

Being off by ~30 seats is hardly "slightly more pessimistic", lol.

And while it is true that most Atlas Democrats are indeed unrealistically optimistic (which I call them out for all the time), your problems/mistakes in particular seem to be the polar opposite.

By the way, 35% is way lowballing it.

Icespear dont you realize that Trump has a 43% approval rating. Its a bold prediction, but if the Senate flips, Hegar can win

[Beet]

An incumbent polling at 41% is pathetic, particularly one who's been in office for nearly 20 years.

[Theodore]

Safe Republican and you’re in denial if you think otherwise.

Beto would’ve made this a Likely Republican seat if he didn’t say what he said in the debate about guns (Granted I agree with his position 100% but shouldn’t have said it if he had any plans of running for senate)

But muh 2018 trends are permanent!!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are spending money on this race, seat flips in a wave, as do KY