Rate Runoff Likelihood in LA-Gov

[ElectionsGuy]

Here are the candidates, there are only five on the ballot.

John Bel Edwards (D)*
Oscar Dantzler (D)
Ralph Abraham (R)
Eddie Rispone (R)
Gary Landrieu (I)

Toss-Up/Tilt No Runoff for me. I previously thought he'd slightly miss 50% but the truth is if he can't avoid a runoff this time with only one no-name Dem and one independent he's probably in for a tough fight if a runoff does happen. It's weird because he could win something like 51-26-20 in the jungle and seem like a big winner but in reality, he's only winning by 5% over the total Republican vote (maybe 6-7% factoring in that other Dem). Here's my updated prediction.

Edwards: 50.5%
Abraham: 29%
Rispone: 17%

[DINGO Joe]

Well, Abraham can barely run TV ads at this point.  Rispone does run ads but is frankly weird.  Jon Bel runs against the ghost of Bobby Jindal since there's no point in giving name recognition to his current opponents. Probably the most boring Gov race I've seen in my 30+ years in Louisiana.  Turnout will matter.  Just not much to motivate anyone.  I do think Abraham and Rispone  will be close in the vote and I do think it matters how many vote for Landrieu thinking that they're voting for a real Landrieu.  I voted Lean no runoff.

[We Live in Black and White]

The more time passes, the more I think Edwards cuts Abraham down in the first round. Tilt No.

[Oryxslayer]

The more time passes, the more I think Edwards cuts Abraham down in the first round. Tilt No.

Yeah, I think everyone one this forum expected it to go to a runoff initially. But the GOP leadership isn't demonstrating the enthusiasm, and failed to get good candidates. Then Edwards came down hard for pro-life Right before the election, the other candidates continue to infight, and it's going to an off-cycle contest. We have reached the point where if undecided or low enthusiasm voters are pushed/removed from the polls, Edwards crosses the line. There's a fairly clear trajectory, and it's going to take an significant effort to change that trajectory, one that I'm not sure the national GOP has the enthusiasm to change.

[Skill and Chance]

60/40 No runoff.

If there is a runoff, Edwards is meaningfully vulnerable, particularly if Rispone surprises and takes 2nd in the 1st round.  He has lot of Kevin Stitt/Matt Bevin outsider potential, while I'm pretty sure Abraham still loses narrowly in the end.

[Roll Roons]

Funny thing I noticed in today's Politico Playbook - JBE and Abraham both have birthdays today, 12 years apart.

[Xing]

I'll say Tilt No Run-off. My guess is that Edwards gets between 48 and 52 percent in the first round.

[Frenchrepublican]

Tilt Runoff.

[Frenchrepublican]

As of now I would expect :

JBE : 46%
Abraham : 25%
Rispone : 24%
Others : 5%

But yeah, this race is looking more and more like the OH Sen from last year ; a very winnable race on the paper which will likely end up in a democratic victory because of a lack of trying.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are gonna win LA and KY, I think LA will go into a run off, but he still wins

[Del Tachi]

Tossup/tilt no-runoff

Off-topic, but MS is still likelier to flip than KY and Hood will win a higher % than Beshear.