Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign megathread v2 (pg 77 - declares victory in Iowa)

[win win]

If we judge a person by his record, what makes you think, voter, that he can do anything when he is president?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I am not really a fan of a lot of Bernie's policies but at least he feels genuine and truthfull. Warren and Buttigieg are the type who lie just for your vote.

[AtorBoltox]

Buttigieg or Klobuchar needed to win NH to have a shot at the nomination. Now that Bernie's gone 2 for 2 think anti-Bernie democrats are going to jump from candidate to candidate, but none of them will coalesce enough to beat him

[cvparty]

congrats on winning the nomination bernie!!

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1227440624586149892

[America Needs R'hllor]

Try not to cry: https://twitter.com/nat_stylo/status/1227462049933987841

This is very, very nice. Hope he continues using that office in the general so that it has significance.

As a side note, it's very clear that Sanders is wildly popular with under 30 voters. I'm not sure that'll work, but I do hope he manages to motivate a lot of turnout from these voters in the general.

[Panhandle Progressive]

On the surface it may seem solid to Sanders supporters he won in NH right? Except that this 'win' will be short-lived. Buttigieg leads the overall delegate count after the first two states have cast votes. I distinctly remember many Sanders supporters telling me after the 2016 general election that Sanders will easily win those states in 2020. Yeah, okay.  Dems need to be prepared for a long drawn-out primary season in 2020. If Bernie can just barely 'win' in NH over Pete, (and with Pete and Amy's centrist voters---far eclipsing Bernie) he has a VERY TOUGH road ahead. Yesterday morning (pre NH) Sanders was listed here https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ as having a 45% chance of winning more than half of pledged delegates and no one was at 25%. This morning (post NH) Sanders is at 38% and no one is 33%. So post NH there is now a one in three chance that Dems will have a contested convention in mid-July, and won't be able to coalesce behind a single candidate until it's likely too late. Another potential issue in this situation, imagine whichever Dem has a plurality of delegates going into the convention, but not enough outright to win the nomination, goes into the convention and then Superdelegates select someone else to be the party nominee (SD's get to vote on the 2nd ballot and beyond) Yeah, just imagine that cluster. A contested convention is a very real and likely possibility. It would likely be a terrible attempt to unite the party.

[Pyro]

On the surface it may seem solid to Sanders supporters he won in NH right? Except that this 'win' will be short-lived. Buttigieg leads the overall delegate count after the first two states have cast votes. I distinctly remember many Sanders supporters telling me after the 2016 general election that Sanders will easily win those states in 2020. Yeah, okay.  Dems need to be prepared for a long drawn-out primary season in 2020. If Bernie can just barely 'win' in NH over Pete, (and with Pete and Amy's centrist voters---far eclipsing Bernie) he has a VERY TOUGH road ahead. Yesterday morning (pre NH) Sanders was listed here https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ as having a 45% chance of winning more than half of pledged delegates and no one was at 25%. This morning (post NH) Sanders is at 38% and no one is 33%. So post NH there is now a one in three chance that Dems will have a contested convention in mid-July, and won't be able to coalesce behind a single candidate until it's likely too late. Another potential issue in this situation, imagine whichever Dem has a plurality of delegates going into the convention, but not enough outright to win the nomination, goes into the convention and then Superdelegates select someone else to be the party nominee (SD's get to vote on the 2nd ballot and beyond) Yeah, just imagine that cluster. A contested convention is a very real and likely possibility. It would likely be a terrible attempt to unite the party.

https://twitter.com/deep_beige/status/1227440442549112832

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

On the surface it may seem solid to Sanders supporters he won in NH right? Except that this 'win' will be short-lived. Buttigieg leads the overall delegate count after the first two states have cast votes. I distinctly remember many Sanders supporters telling me after the 2016 general election that Sanders will easily win those states in 2020. Yeah, okay.  Dems need to be prepared for a long drawn-out primary season in 2020. If Bernie can just barely 'win' in NH over Pete, (and with Pete and Amy's centrist voters---far eclipsing Bernie) he has a VERY TOUGH road ahead. Yesterday morning (pre NH) Sanders was listed here https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ as having a 45% chance of winning more than half of pledged delegates and no one was at 25%. This morning (post NH) Sanders is at 38% and no one is 33%. So post NH there is now a one in three chance that Dems will have a contested convention in mid-July, and won't be able to coalesce behind a single candidate until it's likely too late. Another potential issue in this situation, imagine whichever Dem has a plurality of delegates going into the convention, but not enough outright to win the nomination, goes into the convention and then Superdelegates select someone else to be the party nominee (SD's get to vote on the 2nd ballot and beyond) Yeah, just imagine that cluster. A contested convention is a very real and likely possibility. It would likely be a terrible attempt to unite the party.

https://twitter.com/deep_beige/status/1227440442549112832

Pete won Iowa

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Sanders CRASHES to victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.  Should he drop out?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

OK'ish night for a front-runner. A win is a win, but honestly I expected a bigger margin, especially after seeing Warren collapse. Klob essentially gave him a win by presumably stealing votes from Buttipete.


He'll need to start getting magical 30% in national polls to get a clear majority of delegates.


Other good news is that everyone, but Bloomberg, are soon out of money. Bernie?

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1227391636260388864

Insane numbers.

[Sbane]

On the surface it may seem solid to Sanders supporters he won in NH right? Except that this 'win' will be short-lived. Buttigieg leads the overall delegate count after the first two states have cast votes. I distinctly remember many Sanders supporters telling me after the 2016 general election that Sanders will easily win those states in 2020. Yeah, okay.  Dems need to be prepared for a long drawn-out primary season in 2020. If Bernie can just barely 'win' in NH over Pete, (and with Pete and Amy's centrist voters---far eclipsing Bernie) he has a VERY TOUGH road ahead. Yesterday morning (pre NH) Sanders was listed here https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ as having a 45% chance of winning more than half of pledged delegates and no one was at 25%. This morning (post NH) Sanders is at 38% and no one is 33%. So post NH there is now a one in three chance that Dems will have a contested convention in mid-July, and won't be able to coalesce behind a single candidate until it's likely too late. Another potential issue in this situation, imagine whichever Dem has a plurality of delegates going into the convention, but not enough outright to win the nomination, goes into the convention and then Superdelegates select someone else to be the party nominee (SD's get to vote on the 2nd ballot and beyond) Yeah, just imagine that cluster. A contested convention is a very real and likely possibility. It would likely be a terrible attempt to unite the party.

https://twitter.com/deep_beige/status/1227440442549112832

Pete won Iowa

Bernie got more votes at final alignment. I don't give two sh**ts about Iowa's SDE's. Hopefully they get stripped of all delegates after that sh**tshow.

[GeneralMacArthur]

OK'ish night for a front-runner. A win is a win, but honestly I expected a bigger margin, especially after seeing Warren collapse. Klob essentially gave him a win by presumably stealing votes from Buttipete.

He'll need to start getting magical 30% in national polls to get a clear majority of delegates.

Other good news is that everyone, but Bloomberg, are soon out of money. Bernie?

Since when is 30% a clear majority?  It's 30%.  It's only 5% more than he got in New Hampshire and Buttigieg+Klobuchar picked up 6 more delegates than him.

Also Buttigieg is not going to run out of money.  In fact he's probably going to beat Sanders in Q1 fundraising.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

OK'ish night for a front-runner. A win is a win, but honestly I expected a bigger margin, especially after seeing Warren collapse. Klob essentially gave him a win by presumably stealing votes from Buttipete.

He'll need to start getting magical 30% in national polls to get a clear majority of delegates.

Other good news is that everyone, but Bloomberg, are soon out of money. Bernie?

Since when is 30% a clear majority?  It's 30%.  It's only 5% more than he got in New Hampshire and Buttigieg+Klobuchar picked up 6 more delegates than him.

Also Buttigieg is not going to run out of money.  In fact he's probably going to beat Sanders in Q1 fundraising.

30% likely will be enough to get a majority in a field with super-divided moderates.


Pete gets 0% among black and will be crashed in NV/SC and then Super-Tuesday. Pete+Klob gets 15% nationally LOL = ~zero delegates outside white states.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

On the surface it may seem solid to Sanders supporters he won in NH right? Except that this 'win' will be short-lived. Buttigieg leads the overall delegate count after the first two states have cast votes. I distinctly remember many Sanders supporters telling me after the 2016 general election that Sanders will easily win those states in 2020. Yeah, okay.  Dems need to be prepared for a long drawn-out primary season in 2020. If Bernie can just barely 'win' in NH over Pete, (and with Pete and Amy's centrist voters---far eclipsing Bernie) he has a VERY TOUGH road ahead. Yesterday morning (pre NH) Sanders was listed here https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ as having a 45% chance of winning more than half of pledged delegates and no one was at 25%. This morning (post NH) Sanders is at 38% and no one is 33%. So post NH there is now a one in three chance that Dems will have a contested convention in mid-July, and won't be able to coalesce behind a single candidate until it's likely too late. Another potential issue in this situation, imagine whichever Dem has a plurality of delegates going into the convention, but not enough outright to win the nomination, goes into the convention and then Superdelegates select someone else to be the party nominee (SD's get to vote on the 2nd ballot and beyond) Yeah, just imagine that cluster. A contested convention is a very real and likely possibility. It would likely be a terrible attempt to unite the party.

https://twitter.com/deep_beige/status/1227440442549112832

Pete won Iowa

Bernie got more votes at final alignment. I don't give two sh**ts about Iowa's SDE's. about who actually won the Iowa Caucus.  Hopefully they get stripped of all delegates after that sh**tshow. because I don't like the person who won.

FTFY

[redjohn]

Was hoping for a 5-pt lead for Bernie, but I'll take a slight win. He just needs to make sure he does well in NV to prove his broad coalition. He can do that, and I think he will. Proud of Bernie!

[Shadows]

Sanders' numbers among young people was incredible. If he got them to turnout @ the rate of Iowa he would have cracked 35% & would have won by double digits. He needs to win the elctability argument where he is losing more to Pete & Amy.

[Xing]

While I think Sanders has a decent chance of winning a plurality of delegates, I'm not optimistic about his chances of winning a majority. It seems like there's a considerable number of Democrats who have bought into Republican talking points like "socialism bad", "free stuff bad", "too left unelectable", and would vote for literally any Democratic candidate to stop Sanders from getting the nomination. Hell, if Ted Cruz ran as a Democrat, they'd back him over Sanders for the nomination, since at least he's not an "unelectable" old socialist or named Trump. A lot of Democrats still personally blame Sanders for Trump winning, and a lot would go to great lengths to prevent him from getting the nomination, including picking someone else at the convention even if Sanders wins the most delegates, pretty much handing the election to Trump on a silver platter, since they're so "sure" that Sanders would lose like McGovern/Mondale/Dukakis.

Now, part of the problem is that Sanders isn't turning out all of his supporters from 2016, and that's bad for him in the primary as well as the general, but I'm really not sure what he can do to expand his base, since to appeal to some Democrats, he'd have to abandon everything his movement is about, and even then, many would still refuse to back him, since it's "his fault" Clinton lost, and he's still "not a Democrat." Man, Democrats really should've nominated him in 2016.

[adamevans]

New Hampshire has this weird thing where the person with the most votes wins. I’m really struggling to understand it.

[Roblox]

Was Sanders's victory in New Hampshire underwhelming? Sure.

However, would I rather be in his position than the two moderates who have virtually no non white support, the senator from a neighboring state who got 10%, and the guy who got 4th and 5th places in the first two contests? Hell yeah!

[Meclazine for Israel]

If Sanders get's the nomination, he will do more to get Trump re-elected than Trump.

I just don't see it. How does he raise money from paycheck to paycheck socialists.

It's like buying an expensive house when you have no money.

The Democratic Primary process is the first part where you are driving around a wealthy neighbourhood looking at real estate and establishing your dream house in your mind, and enjoying the process.

The 2020 Presidential Election is the second part where you are sitting in the bank quietly whilst the bank manager says you cannot afford it.

On Election Day, the 'purchase' decision is made based on the actual reality vs the ideal reality, and Pete and Amy are offering a neighbourhood that is more affordable on the US taxpayer.

I know people want the 'Bernie Ideal' and I do agree with free higher education and free healthcare as a principle.

But it needs to be introduced slowly.

[Mr. Smith]

If Sanders get's the nomination, he will do more to get Trump re-elected than Trump.

I just don't see it. How does he raise money from paycheck to paycheck socialists.

It's like buying an expensive house when you have no money.

The Democratic Primary process is the first part where you are driving around a wealthy neighbourhood looking at real estate and establishing your dream house in your mind, and enjoying the process.

The 2020 Presidential Election is the second part where you are sitting in the bank quietly whilst the bank manager says you cannot afford it.

On Election Day, the 'purchase' decision is made based on the actual reality vs the ideal reality, and Pete and Amy are offering a neighbourhood that is more affordable on the US taxpayer.

I know people want the 'Bernie Ideal' and I do agree with free higher education and free healthcare as a principle.

But it needs to be introduced slowly.

You can't introduce things slowly when the other side is going all out to throw even that out. It doesn't work.

Trump didn't win by asking for self-deportation, he went for a wall!

And how well did incrementally ending Iraq do in 2004 for Kerry?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Finally something Republicans and Democrats agree on

https://twitter.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1227418964373975040?s=20

[Roblox]

I see a lot of people doing the "if you combine the moderate vote, it's way more than Sanders!" thing, which reveals a very superficial understanding of the average American voter. Most people aren't taking political compass tests to firmly establish their ideological position that applies to every issue. Frankly, many people call themselves "moderate" because it sounds nice/reasonable rather than necessarily having moderate beliefs on many issues.

And then there's the simple fact that people are more likely to vote based on personality or personal appeal of a candidate rather than specific policy planks. Thats why, for instance, Bernie Sanders is the second choice of many Biden voters. People aren't sifting through policy papers.

[Adam Griffin]

Ohohohoho

https://twitter.com/krystalball/status/1227765248108748801