Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign megathread v2 (pg 77 - declares victory in Iowa)

[GeneralMacArthur]

Economics is a social science.
Economists use the scientific method.  Real economists, not some pundit on cable news.

There is a difference between social "science" and actual science (aka "natural" science).

Economics is no more actual science than political science is. Yes, economists, political scientists, sociologists etc can make informed statements that are grounded in more than nothing. That is not the same thing, however, as biology/physics/chemistry/etc, and if you conflate the two then the public will say "oh, science must be BS then" whenever they see questionable social science.

This is a pointless argument.  The point is, people who are experts in which policies are fiscally workable and how such policies would impact America are in near-unanimous agreement that Bernie Sanders' policies are bad.  The reasons why aren't particularly complicated to understand.

[GoTfan]

Economics is a social science.
Economists use the scientific method.  Real economists, not some pundit on cable news.

There is a difference between social "science" and actual science (aka "natural" science).

Economics is no more actual science than political science is. Yes, economists, political scientists, sociologists etc can make informed statements that are grounded in more than nothing. That is not the same thing, however, as biology/physics/chemistry/etc, and if you conflate the two then the public will say "oh, science must be BS then" whenever they see questionable social science.

This is a pointless argument.  The point is, people who are experts in which policies are fiscally workable and how such policies would impact America are in near-unanimous agreement that Bernie Sanders' policies are bad.  The reasons why aren't particularly complicated to understand.

https://www.politicususa.com/2016/01/14/170-economists-bernie-sanders-plan-reform-wall-st-rein-greed.html

[Adam Griffin]

New polling on Medicare for All.

M4A has 35% support and is opposed by pretty much every demographic except 18-29 and non-white voters

So in other words, the base of the party.

With regard to long-term structural reforms in the pursuit of public health insurance, I'm not sure why we should care from a pragmatic standpoint about the opinions of people who already benefit from public health insurance and will be dead in 10-15 years max.

[NOVA Green]

Since I don't believe it has been posted here, and didn't see it in a survey of new posts on the 2020 Board....

Bernie Sanders is launching a $2.2 Million ad buy in Texas and California....

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Bernie-Sanders-surging-in-Texas-three-weeks-15013485.php

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/480239-sanders-launches-25-million-television-ad-buy-in-california-texas

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/01/28/bernie-sanders-campaign-homes-texas-primary-nears/

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/01/29/biden-narrowly-leads-sanders-in-texas-though-poll-finds-bernie-is-best-dem-matchup-vs-trump/

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/campaign-wire-election-2020/card/1580235278

So..... Bet big or stay at home, and Bernie is doing just that, while Atlas posters are wrangling about other items not directly relevant to the actual "horse race"....

[Florida Man for Crime]

This is a pointless argument.  The point is, people who are experts in which policies are fiscally workable and how such policies would impact America are in near-unanimous agreement that Bernie Sanders' policies are bad.

That is not true, but it is probably pointless to argue it further with you, since you are not actually interested in the substance of it, but only in whether it is bad politically for Bernie Sanders.

The notion that economists are in near-unanimous agreement about anything policy related is absurd. Suffice it to say that you must never have heard about Harry Truman and the one-handed economist.

BTW, economic policy is basically the very least scientific sub-field of economics (technically it is not even really a sub-field per se).

The reasons why aren't particularly complicated to understand.

You couldn't be more wrong about that, buddy. Economics is nothing if not complicated, and if you don't know that you have only a very thin surface knowledge of it.

[NOVA Green]

This is a pointless argument.  The point is, people who are experts in which policies are fiscally workable and how such policies would impact America are in near-unanimous agreement that Bernie Sanders' policies are bad.

That is not true, but it is probably pointless to argue it further with you, since you are not actually interested in the substance of it, but only in whether it is bad politically for Bernie Sanders.

The notion that economists are in near-unanimous agreement about anything policy related is absurd. Suffice it to say that you must never have heard about Harry Truman and the one-handed economist.

BTW, economic policy is basically the very least scientific sub-field of economics (technically it is not even really a sub-field per se).

The reasons why aren't particularly complicated to understand.

You couldn't be more wrong about that, buddy. Economics is nothing if not complicated, and if you don't know that you have only a very thin surface knowledge of it.

Put him on mute or maybe there should be a separate thread to discuss the economic policy platforms and outcomes of ALL Democratic Party Candidates....

What are your thoughts on the Air Wars from Bernie in TX and CA, rather than engaging in arguments about topics that deserve their own thread or an individual who appears to be making it all about his opposition to Bernie rather than more substantive contributions or updates?

I know you may well have a few opinions on the matter   

[Ebsy]

If only there were some process where candidates could present their policies and positions to voters in order to convince said voters of their merit and earn support.

[Florida Man for Crime]

What are your thoughts on the Air Wars from Bernie in TX and CA?

I am generally skeptical of the efficacy of TV ads. This is apparently just a small amount, slightly more than $2 million spread between TX and CA doesn't go that far.

To the extent possible, I would say he should try to spend money on hiring more organizers in early states and throughout the country, although I am sure he is already doing that. I suspect a lot of it is simply that he has more money that he can spend on non

The air waves are saturated in the early states already, so it also makes sense to spend additional marginal $s in other states. Insofar as TV ads are effective at all, they have significantly diminishing returns, so even if he could buy additional ads in states like Iowa, it probably wouldn't really be worth it.

The other thing that might be a bit more effective is running ads on cable on specifically micro-targeted shows, and possibly targeting some particular media markets where there are Congressional Districts in which it is expected to be close to some delegate cut-offs.

If I were Sanders, I would in particular try to put resources into the Congressional Districts in the south where he wasn't viable in 2016 (but plausibly could be with a bit of improvement). One of the biggest factors that killed him in 2016 was not just how he got blown out overall in the south, but that there were quite a lot of significant CDs where he didn't hit the 15% viability threshold and got 0 delegates. Those districts with 0 Sanders delegates are what built a lot of Clinton's delegate lead. Of the Super Tuesday states, I would say he should look in particular at the CDs in Alabama for that, because making the viability threshold or not can make such a huge difference.

[NOVA Green]

What are your thoughts on the Air Wars from Bernie in TX and CA?

I am generally skeptical of the efficacy of TV ads. This is apparently just a small amount, slightly more than $2 million spread between TX and CA doesn't go that far.

To the extent possible, I would say he should try to spend money on hiring more organizers in early states and throughout the country, although I am sure he is already doing that. I suspect a lot of it is simply that he has more money that he can spend on non

The air waves are saturated in the early states already, so it also makes sense to spend additional marginal $s in other states. Insofar as TV ads are effective at all, they have significantly diminishing returns, so even if he could buy additional ads in states like Iowa, it probably wouldn't really be worth it.

The other thing that might be a bit more effective is running ads on cable on specifically micro-targeted shows, and possibly targeting some particular media markets where there are Congressional Districts in which it is expected to be close to some delegate cut-offs.

If I were Sanders, I would in particular try to put resources into the Congressional Districts in the south where he wasn't viable in 2016 (but plausibly could be with a bit of improvement). One of the biggest factors that killed him in 2016 was not just how he got blown out overall in the south, but that there were quite a lot of significant CDs where he didn't hit the 15% viability threshold and got 0 delegates. Those districts with 0 Sanders delegates are what built a lot of Clinton's delegate lead. Of the Super Tuesday states, I would say he should look in particular at the CDs in Alabama for that, because making the viability threshold or not can make such a huge difference.

These are all extremely good points, but Bernie already has an extremely impressive field organization in Cali, and if you reviewed any of the links that I posted (Which I assume you have) appears to have a pretty decent Senior Field Team plus organizational base teams in both States.

The massive deployment of Bernie assets to Texas is a key signal that the campaign believes that their finances can sustain the spend to get an early edge before Super Tuesday, when early voting is coming up within the next few weeks in both Texas and California.

Agreed that the "Air War" is not the primary factor, but in large states the "Air War" combined with the "Ground War" is much more successful than the strategies of the Bloomberg and Steyer for example that believe that only the Air War Matters, and that Robocalls can buy votes and money (not that they need it, but hell saves some dimes out of their own pockets)....

Bernie is the only DEM candidate thus far that is not a Billionaire paying out of his own pocket who has put some poker chips into the table of the HUGE delegate rich states of Cali and Tejas....

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It certainly feels like, here in Riverside, Bernie's campaign (& Bloomberg, to an extent) is the only one with any kind of presence. I'm constantly getting messages about canvass/phonebanking events in adjacent cities & I see more of his stickers/signs around town by the day.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Economics is a social science.
Economists use the scientific method.  Real economists, not some pundit on cable news.

There is a difference between social "science" and actual science (aka "natural" science).

Economics is no more actual science than political science is. Yes, economists, political scientists, sociologists etc can make informed statements that are grounded in more than nothing. That is not the same thing, however, as biology/physics/chemistry/etc, and if you conflate the two then the public will say "oh, science must be BS then" whenever they see questionable social science.


- edit - I re-read and also saw you said "Economists use the scientific method." That is not true for most economists and certainly not for economic theory. However, there are small but increasing #s of economists who do statistical randomized control studies. This can legitimately be considered a scientific enterprise; however, this is mostly small scale boutique stuff and often has little to do with the economy itself (other things get studied instead often because there is more/better data and they are more interesting).

Well, as someone with a background and degree in Economics, I have to say you’re both correct. Economics is not a science akin to Biology or Chemistry, but it does use the scientific method. And statistical analysis and experimentation are integral parts of the discipline nowadays.

[DrScholl]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

Well they have to stop texting you if you tell them to do so, so I don’t see what the problem is

[QAnonKelly]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

They got my number too but I politely told them no thanks and to take me off the list and have never heard from them again.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

For safety's sake I'd vote for Bernie, if I were you. You never know with these crazy Bernie Bros.

[Xing]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

Well they have to stop texting you if you tell them to do so, so I don’t see what the problem is

The problem is that he wouldn't be able to complain about it on US Election Atlas dot org and cite it as evidence that Sanders is terrible as is everyone who supports him.

[DrScholl]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

Well they have to stop texting you if you tell them to do so, so I don’t see what the problem is

The problem is that he wouldn't be able to complain about it on US Election Atlas dot org and cite it as evidence that Sanders is terrible as is everyone who supports him.

Unlike you, I don't take this message board seriously enough to be that methodical. Seriously, I don't want to tell them to stop because I don't know if the person behind the messages is one of the more unhinged people who will go off and start sending insults or threats. Anyone can sign up to do texts, so you don't really know who is texting you.

Get a life outside of Bernie Sanders. There are politicians I support, but I don't shape my entire life and existence around. I don't sit around thinking about ways to set you people off. For heaven's sake.

[Cassandra]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

Well they have to stop texting you if you tell them to do so, so I don’t see what the problem is

The problem is that he wouldn't be able to complain about it on US Election Atlas dot org and cite it as evidence that Sanders is terrible as is everyone who supports him.

Unlike you, I don't take this message board seriously enough to be that methodical. Seriously, I don't want to tell them to stop because I don't know if the person behind the messages is one of the more unhinged people who will go off and start sending insults or threats. Anyone can sign up to do texts, so you don't really know who is texting you.

Get a life outside of Bernie Sanders. There are politicians I support, but I don't shape my entire life and existence around. I don't sit around thinking about ways to set you people off. For heaven's sake.

Shaking and pissing myself at the thought of Bernie Bros texting me.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

Well they have to stop texting you if you tell them to do so, so I don’t see what the problem is

The problem is that he wouldn't be able to complain about it on US Election Atlas dot org and cite it as evidence that Sanders is terrible as is everyone who supports him.

Unlike you, I don't take this message board seriously enough to be that methodical. Seriously, I don't want to tell them to stop because I don't know if the person behind the messages is one of the more unhinged people who will go off and start sending insults or threats. Anyone can sign up to do texts, so you don't really know who is texting you.

Get a life outside of Bernie Sanders. There are politicians I support, but I don't shape my entire life and existence around. I don't sit around thinking about ways to set you people off. For heaven's sake.

Well you are letting your life be adversely affected by your unfounded suspicions of what Bernie volunteers might do if you tell them to please stop texting you, so you’re the one letting Bernie affect your life

[DrScholl]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

Well they have to stop texting you if you tell them to do so, so I don’t see what the problem is

The problem is that he wouldn't be able to complain about it on US Election Atlas dot org and cite it as evidence that Sanders is terrible as is everyone who supports him.

Unlike you, I don't take this message board seriously enough to be that methodical. Seriously, I don't want to tell them to stop because I don't know if the person behind the messages is one of the more unhinged people who will go off and start sending insults or threats. Anyone can sign up to do texts, so you don't really know who is texting you.

Get a life outside of Bernie Sanders. There are politicians I support, but I don't shape my entire life and existence around. I don't sit around thinking about ways to set you people off. For heaven's sake.

Well you are letting your life be adversely affected by your unfounded suspicions of what Bernie volunteers might do if you tell them to please stop texting you, so you’re the one letting Bernie affect your life

Where on earth did I say it was adversely affecting my life? I'd just rather not antagonize these people who get upset when someone is not a Sanders supporter.

[Xing]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

Well they have to stop texting you if you tell them to do so, so I don’t see what the problem is

The problem is that he wouldn't be able to complain about it on US Election Atlas dot org and cite it as evidence that Sanders is terrible as is everyone who supports him.

Unlike you, I don't take this message board seriously enough to be that methodical. Seriously, I don't want to tell them to stop because I don't know if the person behind the messages is one of the more unhinged people who will go off and start sending insults or threats. Anyone can sign up to do texts, so you don't really know who is texting you.

Get a life outside of Bernie Sanders. There are politicians I support, but I don't shape my entire life and existence around. I don't sit around thinking about ways to set you people off. For heaven's sake.

If you look at my 5-year posting history, you'll be surprised to find that I in fact do have a life outside of Bernie Sanders. I've only spent more time defending him recently since many have been freaking out about him gaining in the polls after writing his obituary over the summer (I'll admit I didn't think he had much of a chance then, either.) The fact that you'd immediately assume the worst about a Sanders supporter that you don't know says a lot, especially since they don't have more than your number.

[Cassandra]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

Well they have to stop texting you if you tell them to do so, so I don’t see what the problem is

The problem is that he wouldn't be able to complain about it on US Election Atlas dot org and cite it as evidence that Sanders is terrible as is everyone who supports him.

Unlike you, I don't take this message board seriously enough to be that methodical. Seriously, I don't want to tell them to stop because I don't know if the person behind the messages is one of the more unhinged people who will go off and start sending insults or threats. Anyone can sign up to do texts, so you don't really know who is texting you.

Get a life outside of Bernie Sanders. There are politicians I support, but I don't shape my entire life and existence around. I don't sit around thinking about ways to set you people off. For heaven's sake.

If you look at my 5-year posting history, you'll be surprised to find that I in fact do have a life outside of Bernie Sanders. I've only spent more time defending him recently since many have been freaking out about him gaining in the polls after writing his obituary over the summer (I'll admit I didn't think he had much of a chance then, either.) The fact that you'd immediately assume the worst about a Sanders supporter that you don't know says a lot, especially since they don't have more than your number.

And for what it's worth, the people sending texts don't have access to your number (or VAN at all, for that matter). They're using a system called Spoke which shields all personal info other than your first name.

[DrScholl]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

Well they have to stop texting you if you tell them to do so, so I don’t see what the problem is

The problem is that he wouldn't be able to complain about it on US Election Atlas dot org and cite it as evidence that Sanders is terrible as is everyone who supports him.

Unlike you, I don't take this message board seriously enough to be that methodical. Seriously, I don't want to tell them to stop because I don't know if the person behind the messages is one of the more unhinged people who will go off and start sending insults or threats. Anyone can sign up to do texts, so you don't really know who is texting you.

Get a life outside of Bernie Sanders. There are politicians I support, but I don't shape my entire life and existence around. I don't sit around thinking about ways to set you people off. For heaven's sake.

If you look at my 5-year posting history, you'll be surprised to find that I in fact do have a life outside of Bernie Sanders. I've only spent more time defending him recently since many have been freaking out about him gaining in the polls after writing his obituary over the summer (I'll admit I didn't think he had much of a chance then, either.) The fact that you'd immediately assume the worst about a Sanders supporter that you don't know says a lot, especially since they don't have more than your number.

And for what it's worth, the people sending texts don't have access to your number (or VAN at all, for that matter). They're using a system called Spoke which shields all personal info other than your first name.

That's good to know.

[DrScholl]

Somehow the Sanders Campaign got my number and I never gave it to them. I'm afraid to tell them to stop texting me though.

Okay, so I've tried to be a productive, non-confrontational poster for a long time, but I mean this genuinely: get a life, you f**king troglodyte.

Reported for name calling. I seriously hope you don't canvass for Bernie with that attitude. Voters would not appreciate at you speaking to them that way if they give the "wrong" answer.

[GeneralMacArthur]

From the oldest LGBTQ magazine: "The Time to Stop Bernie Sanders is NOW"

https://www.washingtonblade.com/2020/01/29/time-to-stop-bernie-sanders-is-now/

Despite the BS Sanders is selling he has never been a leader in any movement whether it is women’s rights, civil rights, LGBTQ rights, disability rights or immigrant rights. People must understand shouting and waving your arms about and selling what was once called ‘snake oil’ isn’t being a leader. It may play to the crowd, and seems to be playing to young people, but in our system of government it doesn’t work to move a progressive agenda forward and for over thirty years in Congress Sanders record of accomplishing practically nothing is proof of that.