GOP endorsement watch

[Mr. Morden]

Will ultimately use this thread to try to track which current and former GOP elected officials do or do not endorse Trump in the primary (or even endorse one of his opponents), as well as who among them goes #NeverTrump this time and says they won't vote for him in the general election either.

Am curious to see how many Republicans in Congress end up not endorsing Trump's reelection before the primary voting begins.  Wikipedia currently says that 20 of the 53 Republicans in the Senate have endorsed him:

link

Though some of those "endorsements" seem like a reach.  Rubio is being listed as an endorsement, but the link says that all he said was that he thinks Trump is going to be reelected, and it's a waste of time for candidates to challenge him in the primary since they can't beat him.

In any case, at least one Republican Senator says he has no plans to endorse Trump or anyone else this time, even in the general election:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/12/politics/mitt-romney-endorsement-2020/index.html

"I'm not planning on endorsing in the presidential race," Romney, who has periodically sparred with Trump, told CNN in the Capitol. "At this stage, I'm not planning on endorsing in the primary or in the general."

[Mr. Morden]

Shimkus un-endorses Trump:

https://twitter.com/MZanona/status/1182355081485832192

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s the current list of endorsements of Trump:

link

As far as I can tell, the following sitting GOP senators are missing from that list:

Murkowski
McSally
Isakson
Collins
Blunt
Hawley
Sasse
Toomey
Thune
Rounds
Cornyn
Romney
Johnson

Perdue and Tim Scott are also missing from the list.  However, this story: https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article237787499.html

says that Scott was named as part of the Trump campaign’s “South Carolina team”, so I’m guessing he’s de facto endorsed Trump’s reelection if we’re reading that as written.

And this story: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/427973-endorsing-trump-isnt-the-easiest-decision-for-some-republicans
shows that Perdue has also endorsed him.

For the others, not sure how many of them are deliberately not endorsing him at this stage, as opposed to just assuming that it goes without saying that they support the incumbent president of their party’s renomination and reelection, so they don’t think it’s important to make a statement.

Here’s a rundown of some of them:

As noted upthread, Romney said in September that he’s “not planning” on endorsing anyone in the presidential race.  Not just in the primary, but in the general election too.

And here: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/ben-sasse-wont-endorse-trump-or-any-other-candidate-2020-election/
Sasse suggests that he won’t endorse anyone in the presidential race but that he’ll be “supporting the Republican ticket”.  (I guess that effectively means he’s just not endorsing in the primary?)

The story I linked to earlier (which is from February) gives a rundown on some more of them:

-Collins says she’s not going to decide on an endorsement until calendar year 2020.

-Ron Johnson dodged the question, and said that 2020 is still a “light year away”.  (Remember, this is from February, but I’m unaware of him providing an update since then.)

-Murkowski declined to comment.

-Rounds said that “it’s too early” to discuss endorsements.  (Again, this is from February, but I’m unaware of Rounds providing an update.)

Will be interesting to see if any of these folks offer an endorsement before the primary voting begins in two months.

[Gustaf]

Interesting. I'd note that Shimkus isn't running for reelection so that's presumably why he feels he can afford to not endorse Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like the Wiki page for Trump 2020 endorsements got whittled down significantly for some reason, and now only shows 8 current GOP Senators having endorsed him for example....and just 3 current members of the House of Reps:

link

No idea what happened.  Maybe they tightened either their definition of what counts as an endorsement or what counts as a legitimate source.

In other news, former Rep. David Trott (MI) says that not only is he not endorsing Trump, but Trump is unfit for office, and he's considering voting for Bloomberg:

http://www.epicjourney2008.com/2019/12/how-trump-rules-gop.html

“Trump is emotionally, intellectually and psychologically unfit for office, and I’m sure a lot of Republicans feel the same way,” Mr. Trott said. “But if they say that, the social media barrage will be overwhelming.” He added that he would be open to the presidential candidacy of former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York.

[beaver2.0]

Have any dogcatchers endorsed Walsh or Weld yet?

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Iowa's two weeks away now, and early voting has already started in some states, yet I'm unaware of any of the GOP holdouts having endorsed Trump (or any other candidate) in recent weeks.  But it's unclear to me how many are actually attempting to be neutral in the primary but will be with Trump in the GE vs. will be neutral in the GE as well vs. Trump is the incumbent prez of their party, so they figure that their support is assumed, it's just that reporters aren't asking them to comment on this.

Will be interesting to see how many congressional Republicans avoid the RNC this summer, and will refuse to even show up there, let alone speak.  There were quite a few who wouldn't attend in 2016 (mysterious scheduling conflicts).  Presumably fewer will that this time, but I guess we'll find out.

[Mr. Morden]

One new detail though.  While Collins hasn’t endorsed Trump’s reelection, he has endorsed hers, though she hasn’t actually accepted it, AFAIK:

https://americanindependent.com/susan-collins-donald-trump-endorsement-2020-election-senate-maine/

[Mr. Morden]

Walsh meeting with the DMR editorial board:

https://twitter.com/WalshFreedom/status/1219716036913659904

So are they going to make endorsements for the GOP caucus as well as the Dem. caucus?

[Mr. Morden]

Lamar Alexander is decidedly neutral on whether Trump deserves reelection at this point:

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1223258912868184068

[Roll Roons]

Blast from the past right before Iowa: Former Republican Rep. Jim Leach has endorsed Weld.
https://qctimes.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/campaign-almanac-leach-endorses-bill-weld/article_b6466d87-fc98-5dbc-8e53-39111e4adbb1.html

[Mr. Morden]

No surprise here, but I guess Joe Walsh is *not* going to endorse Trump in the general election:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/republican-joe-walsh-drops-out-of-the-presidential-race-calls-gop-a-cult-and-trump-its-cult-leader-2020-02-07

Presumably, Mitt Romney will also not endorse Trump in either the primary or general election. 

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GovBillWeld/status/1226598668989534208

[Mr. Morden]

Phil Scott has endorsed Weld:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/483240-gop-governor-endorses-weld-in-vermont-primary

Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R) has endorsed GOP presidential candidate William Weld ahead of the state's GOP primary next month, a move intended as a rebuke of President Trump.

“I’ve met with him before. I think a lot of him and his platform, so I would be supporting him,” Scott said of Weld, a long-shot Republican presidential candidate, at a press conference Saturday.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Mitt needs to do the right thing again and endorse Bill Weld, his Utah Mormon machine could help a lot in Utah.

[Mr. Morden]

In 2016, Toomey didn’t endorse anyone for president before election day.  He was asked this time if he plans to support Trump’s reelection, and his response was “I believe I will”, which sounds like a half-hearted endorsement:

https://www.phillymag.com/news/2020/03/09/pat-toomey-impeachment-vote-donald-trump/

Also, Susan Collins says she voted absentee in Maine’s primary last month, but won’t say whether she voted for Trump:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/susan-collins-wont-say-trump-vote-primary_n_5e5bb6e3c5b60102211260f6

Collins said she voted by absentee ballot ahead of Maine’s March 3 primary, but didn’t say whether she cast her ballot for Trump. The president is the only candidate listed on Maine’s Republican primary ballot this year, along with the option to write in another name.

Though she wrote an op-ed bashing Trump three months before the 2016 election, Collins said she isn’t going to “get involved in presidential politics” this time around.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like last year, Flake said that Trump doesn't deserve reelection, so it seems unlikely that he'll end up publicly backing his reelection, but I guess we'll see (in principle, he could still end up supporting him as the lesser of two evils from his perspective):

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/463629-flake-urges-gop-to-not-support-trumps-reelection-amid-impeachment-fight

At some point, I still intend to turn this thread into a #NeverTrump or at least #NotSureIfTrump list of current and former Republican politicians who have either publicly stated that they won't back Trump this year or have dodged the question in some way, rather than just straightforwardly say that they support their party's nominee for president when asked, which would be what would happen for a normal candidate.

Unfortunately, I can't find a good definitive list of who *has* endorsed Trump, so that makes it more complicated.  Plus we have a bunch of people who have dodged the question about whether they support another Trump term, but that was mostly from before the primary, so conceivably they could have used a dodge like "Well, maybe there'll be a serious primary challenge so he might not be the nominee", even if that was farfetched.  Now he is the presumptive nominee, so it's unclear if someone like a Murkowski or Larry Hogan or whoever is still uncertain about supporting another Trump term, or if it's just that no one's asked them recently.

I'll try to sort through all those issues at some point.  Presumably, at least by the convention, there'll be more discussion of this question of who does and doesn't support another Trump term.  Certainly if the convention actually does go ahead as an event where the delegates gather in person, there'll be a new round of "Which GOP politicians are going to have 'scheduling conflicts' that keep them away from the convention?", so it'll come up in that conversation.

[Alben Barkley]

Who wants to take bets on if Mittens will endorse Biden?

Evidence for:

— His impeachment vote

— This article maybe: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/10/21/romney_i_dont_know_biden_well_but_he_seems_to_be_a_man_of_honor.html

Evidence against:

— The entire rest of his political career

[Fuzzy Bear]

A Republican can pretty much go through this campaign cycle without having to deal with the issue of an endorsement.

Watch Ben Sasse go through the entire campaign not endorsing Trump while appearing to support everything he proposes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A Republican can pretty much go through this campaign cycle without having to deal with the issue of an endorsement.

Watch Ben Sasse go through the entire campaign not endorsing Trump while appearing to support everything he proposes.

Susan  Collins will be pressured at some point to directly say weather she supports Trump or not and if she will vote for him.

[Mr. Morden]

Susan  Collins will be pressured at some point to directly say weather she supports Trump or not and if she will vote for him.

In 2016, Pat Toomey was also up for reelection, and claimed to be undecided as to who he would vote for for president right up until Election Day.  Once the election was over, he said that he'd voted for Trump.  I don't see why Collins couldn't similarly pretend to be undecided all the way up until Election Day.

[Fuzzy Bear]

A Republican can pretty much go through this campaign cycle without having to deal with the issue of an endorsement.

Watch Ben Sasse go through the entire campaign not endorsing Trump while appearing to support everything he proposes.

Susan  Collins will be pressured at some point to directly say weather she supports Trump or not and if she will vote for him.

She will, I predict, state that she is voting for him, but not campaigning for him.  She'll say something like, "I'm voting Republican but I'm running my own campaign." and make it just plain enough that she is voting "for the ticket" or something like that.

It'll be kind of like then-GA Governor Jimmy Carter in 1972.  Carter had cast his lot with the Democratic Party and wanted to run for President someday, but he viewed McGovern as a big loser and a guy who wouldn't play well in GA.  So after trying to get Carter to take him as his running mate (and failing), Carter pretty much said he would vote for McGovern but not campaign for him.

[Mr. Morden]

She will, I predict, state that she is voting for him, but not campaigning for him.  She'll say something like, "I'm voting Republican but I'm running my own campaign." and make it just plain enough that she is voting "for the ticket" or something like that.

My guess is that she won't even say that she's voting for him.  She'll just say that she's undecided all the way up through Election Day.  Could be wrong on that, but in general I think some here are underestimating how many Republican politicians will give some kind of "no comment" on who they're going to vote for this year (though it certainly won't be as many as last time around).

But people also tend to think it'll be a bigger deal than it actually is when a GOP politician fails to endorse Trump.  Last time, there was fully ~20% of Republicans in the Senate who said they weren't voting for him, and he won anyway.  It won't be that big this time, but it'll still be non-zero, and virtually no one will care.

[GeorgiaModerate]

She's not a current or former elected official, but this thread seems like an appropriate place to post that Meghan McCain has (unsurprisingly) said she's voting for Biden.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/entertainment/meghan-mccain-joe-biden/index.html

[Mr. Morden]

On the New England governor front, Charlie Baker voted in the Massachusetts GOP presidential primary last month, and says he didn’t vote for Trump, but won’t say who he *did* vote for.  (One would assume Weld, but he won’t say.)

https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/03/03/charlie-baker-presidential-primary-trump

“I don’t want to get into presidential politics,” he repeated, when asked who else he voted for on the ballot Tuesday. “I have a day job that people pay me to do, and it’s not about that. It’s about working the issues that matter here in Massachusetts.”

From that quote, it sounds like he’s similarly not planning to publicly endorse anyone in the general election.  He didn’t endorse anyone in the 2016 presidetial GE, and says that he left his presidential ballot blank that year.

Meanwhile, we’ve already mentioned that Phil Scott endorsed Weld in the primaries, but should be noted that Scott also supported Trump’s impeachment and said he shouldn’t be in office, so it also seems unlikely that he’ll endorse Trump in the GE:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/02/18/gov-scott-makes-endorsement-2020-republican-presidential-nominee/4793816002/

"I believe that the president abused his powers," Scott said, according to The Associated Press. "I didn’t vote for the president, and I don’t believe that he should be in office."