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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
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Author Topic: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time  (Read 7726 times)
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #50 on: December 23, 2005, 05:43:22 pm »
« edited: December 23, 2005, 05:46:31 pm by Lewis L.T. Trondheim »

Oregon -
out in 2004 Benton, Clatsop, Hood River, Lane, Lincoln, Multnomah (too dem), Baker, Clackamas, Coos, Crook, Curry, Deschutes, Douglas, Gilliam, Grant, Harney, Jackson, Jefferson, Josephine, Klamath, Lake, Linn, Malheur, Marion, Morrow, Polk, Sherman, Tillamook, Umatilla, Union, Wallowa, Wasco, Wheeler, Yamhill (too rep)
out in 1996 Columbia (too dem)
out in 1988 Washington (too rep)

Hawaii (doesn't deserve a post of its own)
out in 2004 Hawaii, Kauai, Maui (too dem), Honolulu (too rep)
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #51 on: December 23, 2005, 06:11:54 pm »

Alta California -
out in 2004 Alameda, Contra Costa, Humboldt, Los Angeles, Marin, Mendocino, Monterey, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Solano, Sonoma, Yolo (too dem), Amador, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Del Norte, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Inyo, Kern, Kings, Lassen, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Orange, Placer, Plumas, Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Trinity, Tulare, Tuolumne, Ventura, Yuba (too rep)
out in 2000 Alpine, Santa Barbara (too rep)
out in 1996 Imperial (too dem)
out in 1988 Lake (too dem), San Benito (too rep)
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Gabu
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« Reply #52 on: December 24, 2005, 06:46:03 pm »


Stutsman was first off in 1952, when it voted for Eisenhower by a margin of only 35.87%, while the statewide margin was 42.58%, a differential of 6.71%.

So Stutsman is since 1956.


Fremont was first off in 1956, when it voted for Eisenhower by a margin of 31.09%, while the statewide margin was only 20.16%, a differential of 10.93%.

So Fremont is since 1960.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #53 on: December 26, 2005, 07:14:13 am »
« Edited: December 26, 2005, 05:38:40 pm by the late, great Lewis Trondheim »

Hotdamn, I'm such a putz. I just threw away my list. I'll have to do it again for the West incl. the Plains...not today.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #54 on: December 26, 2005, 08:58:48 am »

Maine - Penobscot, Somerset, Washington, all out in 1996 (too dem)
New Hampshire - Carroll, Coos out in 2000 (too rep), Hillsborough, Rockingham out in 1992 (too rep)
Vermont - Caledonia, out in 2000 (too rep)
Connecticut - Litchfield, out in 1992 (too rep)
New York - Cayuga, Niagara, Rensselaer, Rockland, Suffolk, Sullivan (too dem), Essex (too rep), all out in 2000, Cortland, Dutchess, Oswego, Saratoga, all out in 1992 (too rep), Otsego, Seneca, out in 1984 (too rep)
New Jersey - Salem, out in 2000 (too dem), Somerset, out in 1996 (too rep)
Pennsylvania - Greene, Lawrence, Washington (too dem), Berks, Centre, Chester, Warren (too rep), all out in 2000,  Cambria (too dem), Lehigh, Monroe (too rep), out in 1996, Mercer, out in 1992 (too dem), Carbon, Northampton, out in 1984 (too dem)
Ohio - Hamilton, Hocking, Lake, Wood, out in 2000 (too rep) Harrison, Pike, out in 1996 (too dem), Columbiana (too dem), Clark, Montgomery, Perry (too rep), all out in 1988, Scioto (too dem), Stark (too rep), out in 1980, Ottawa, out in 1976 (too dem)
Indiana - LaPorte, Perry, Vermillion (too dem), Marion (too rep), all out in 1996, Saint Joseph, out in 1988 (too dem), Vigo still in in 1960
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #55 on: December 26, 2005, 09:21:52 am »

Illinois - Gallatin, Macoupin, Mercer, Putnam (too dem), DeKalb, Warren (too rep), all out in 2000, Calhoun, LaSalle (too dem), Lake, Winnebago (too rep), out in 1996, Montgomery out in 1992 (too dem), Henry (too dem), McDonough, Will (too rep), out in 1988, Peoria out in 1984 (too dem), Champaign out in 1980 (too rep)
Michigan - Delta, Menominee, Presque Isle, out in 2000 (too rep), Alger, Alpena, Arenac, Clare, Gladwin, Iosco, Iron, Manistee, Ogemaw, Roscommon, Schoolcraft, all out in 1996 (too dem), Macomb, Oakland, out in 1992 (too rep), Isabella, Van Buren, out in 1988 (too rep), Calhoun, Shiawassee, out in 1984 (too rep), Monroe out in 1972 (too dem)
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #56 on: December 26, 2005, 04:45:45 pm »
« Edited: December 27, 2005, 12:25:54 pm by the late, great Lewis Trondheim »

Wisconsin - Clark, Door, Forest, Oneida, Price, Rusk, Sawyer, Winnebago, Wood, out in 2000 (all too rep), Burnett, Polk, out in 1996 (too dem), Iron out in 1992 (too dem), Barron, Chippewa, Juneau, Kewaunee, Manitowoc, Racine, out in 1988 (all too dem), Washburn (too dem), Grant, Richland (too rep), out in 1984, Columbia, Monroe, out in 1976 (too rep)
Minnesota - Beltrami, Clay, Grant, Houston, Jackson, Kittson, Koochiching, Olmsted, Stevens, Traverse, Wabasha, out in 2000 (all too rep), Aitkin, Anoka,  Big Stone, Pine, Pope, Washington, out in 1996 (all too dem), Dakota, Lincoln, Yellow Medicine, out in 1992 (too dem), Goodhue, Nicollet, out in 1988 (too dem), Fillmore, out in 1980 (too rep)
Iowa - Allamakee, Appanoose, Decatur, Delaware, Monona, Union, out in 2000 (all too rep), Benton, Boone, Emmet, Jones, Mitchell, Monroe (all too dem), Woodbury (too rep), out in 1996 , Palo Alto, out in 1992 (too dem), Bremer, Cedar, Fayette, Louisa, Marshall, Poweshiek, Scott, Tama, Warren, Winneshiek, all out in 1988 (too dem)
Missouri - Pemiscot, out in 2000, Iron, New Madrid, Ray, Saint Francois, Washington, out in 1996, Boone, Buchanan, Jefferson, out in 1992, Clay out in 1988 (all too dem)
Maryland - Kent out in 2000, Charles out in 1996, both too rep
Virginia - Dickenson county, Norton city (too dem), Albemarle, Essex, Prince William counties, Danville city (too rep), all out in 2000, Caroline, Nelson, Northampton (too dem), Prince Edward (too rep) counties, out in 1996, Buckingham county, out in 1992 (too rep), King and Queen county, Radford city, out in 1988 (too rep), Suffolk city, out in 1984 (too dem), Westmoreland county, out in 1976 (too dem)
West Virginia - Lincoln, Marion (too dem), Wetzel (too rep), out in 2000, Braxton, Hancock, Kanawha, Nicholas, out in 1996 (too dem), Monongalia, out in 1992 (too dem), Jefferson out in 1980 (too dem)
North Carolina - Bladen, Columbus (too dem), Buncombe, Pitt, Wake, Watauga, Wilson, Yancey (all too rep), out in 2000, Guilford, out in 1996 (too rep), Caswell, Chatham, Granville, Jackson, Martin, out in 1992 (all too dem), Cumberland out in 1980 (too dem)
South Carolina - Barnwell, Charleston, Darlington, Sumter, out in 2000 (too rep), Chester, Chesterfield, out in 1996 (too dem), Calhoun, Colleton, out in 1984 (too dem)
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #57 on: December 26, 2005, 05:37:36 pm »
« Edited: December 27, 2005, 12:35:43 pm by the late, great Lewis Trondheim »

Georgia - McIntosh, Twiggs out in 2000 (too dem), Burke, Mitchell, Terrell, Wilkinson out in 1996 (too dem), Baldwin, Bibb, Peach (too dem), Chatham (too rep), out in 1992, Sumter out in 1984 (too dem)
Florida - Volusia out in 2000 (too dem), Hillsborough, Orange out in 1996 (too rep), Madison (too dem), Osceola, Pinellas (too rep), out in 1992, Flagler, Hernando, Monroe, out in 1988 (too rep)
Kentucky - Fulton, Letcher, Muhlenberg (too dem), Carter, Fayette, Marion, Morgan (too rep), all out in 2000, Boyd, Franklin, Magoffin, Perry, out in 1996 (too dem), Greenup, Jefferson, out in 1992 (too dem)
Tennessee - Clay, DeKalb, Hickman, Marion, Perry, Warren, out in 2000, Decatur out in 1992 (all too dem)
Alabama - Russell out in 2000 (too dem), Montgomery out in 1996 (too rep), Marengo out in 1988 (too dem)
Mississippi - Pike out in 2000 (too rep), Panola out in 1996 (too dem), Yazoo out in 1992 (too rep), Chickasaw out in 1980 (too dem)
Arkansas - Izard, Lafayette, Little River, Ouachita, out in 2000, Conway, Craighead, Dallas, Drew, Fulton, Greene, Hot Spring, Nevada, out in 1996 (all too dem)
Louisiana - Madison, Pointe Coupee, Saint Landry, Tensas, out in 2000, Bienville, Caddo, out in 1996 (all too dem)
Oklahoma - McIntosh, Okmulgee, out in 2000, Coal out in 1996, Cherokee out in 1992 (all too dem)
Texas - Cameron, Culberson, Frio, Kenedy, Reeves (too dem), Brewster, Dallas (too rep), all out in 2000, Morris, out in 1996 (too dem)
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #58 on: December 27, 2005, 12:10:16 pm »

North Dakota - Mountrail, Ransom, Sargent, Steele, all out in 2000 (too rep)
South Dakota - Bennett, Marshall, Roberts, out in 2000 (too rep), Moody out in 1996 (too dem)
Nebraska - Thurston out in 2000 (too rep)
Kansas - Crawford out in 1992 (too dem)
Montana - Blaine out in 2000 (too rep)
Idaho - Latah out in 2000 (too rep)
Colorado - Broomfield created after 2000, Adams, Las Animas (too dem), Alamosa, Arapahoe, Jefferson, Larimer, Ouray (too rep), all out in 2000, Conejos, Huerfano out in 1996 (too dem)
New Mexico - Los Alamos out in 2000 (too rep), Colfax out in 1992 (too dem), Sandoval out in 1988 (too dem)
Utah - Grand, Summit out in 2000 (too rep)
Nevada - Washoe out in 2000 (too rep)
Washington - Pierce (too dem), Clallam, Island, Skamania, Wahkiakum, Whitman (too rep), all out in 2000, Clark out in 1988 (too dem), Skagit out in 1960 (too rep)
Oregon - Wasco out in 2000 (too rep), Tillamook out in 1996 (too dem), Clackamas out in 1988 (too dem)
California - Mono, San Luis Obispo out in 2000 (too rep), San Diego, San Joaquin, Ventura out in 1996 (too rep), Sacramento out in 1984 (too dem)

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