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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
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Author Topic: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time  (Read 7727 times)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #25 on: December 22, 2005, 06:07:05 am »
« edited: December 22, 2005, 06:15:22 am by Lewis L.T. Trondheim »

Kentucky -
out in 2004 Bath, Boyd, Breathitt, Carroll, Carter, Elliott, Fayette, Floyd, Franklin, Fulton, Greenup, Henderson, Jefferson, Knott, Letcher, Livingston, Lyon, Magoffin, Marion, Menifee, Montgomery, Morgan, Muhlenberg, Nicholas, Perry, Pike, Powell, Rowan, Wolfe (too dem), Adair, Anderson, Barren, Boone, Boyle, Bracken, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Kramer, Campbell, Casey, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton, Crittenden, Cumberland, Edmonson, Estill, Garrard, Grant, Grayson, Greene, Hardin, Harrison, Hart, Henry, Hopkins, Jackson, Jessamine, Johnson, Kenton, Knox, Larue, Laurel, Lee, Leslie, Lewis, Lincoln, Logan, McCreary, Martin, Meade, Mercer, Metcalfe, Monroe, Ohio, Oldham, Owen, Owsley, Pendleton, Pike, Rockcastle, Russell, Scott, Shelby, Spencer, Taylor, Todd, Trigg, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Whitley (too rep)
out in 2000 Ballard, Bell, Carlisle, Harlan, Hickman, Marshall, Simpson, Union, Webster (too dem), Fleming, Mason, Robertson, Trimble (too rep)
out in 1996 Bourbon, Gallatin, Graves, Lawrence, McCracken, McLean, Nelson (too dem); Madison (too rep)
out in 1992 Calloway, Hancock (too dem),  Woodford (too rep)
out in 1972 Daviess (too rep)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #26 on: December 22, 2005, 06:33:59 am »

Tennessee-
out in 2004 Benton, Cannon, Clay, Davidson, Decatur, DeKalb, Franklin, Giles, Grundy, Hardeman, Haywood, Hickman, Houston, Humphreys, Jackson, Lake, Lauderdale, Marion, Overton, Perry, Shelby, Smith, Stewart, Trousdale, Van Buren, Warren (too dem), Bedford, Blount, Bradley, Carter, Cheatham, Chester, Claiborne, Cocke, Cumberland, Dyer, Fayette, Fentress, Granger, Greene, Hamblen, Hancock, Hardin, Hawkins, Henderson, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Lawrence, Lincoln, Loudon, McMinn, Macon, Meigs, Monroe, Moore, Morgan, Pickett, Rhea, Roane, Robertson, Rutherford, Sevier, Sullivan, Sumner, Tipton, Unicoi, Union, Washington, Wayne, Williamson, Wilson (too rep)
out in 2000 Campbell, Dickson, Gibson, Henry, Lewis, Marshall, White (too dem), Bledsoe, Hamilton, McNairy, Scott, Sequatchie (too rep)
out in 1996 Crockett, Maury, Obion, Polk, Weakley (too dem), Madison (too rep)
out in 1992 Coffee, Putnam (too dem)
out in 1988 Anderson (too rep)
out in 1980 Montgomery (too dem)
out in 1964 Carroll (too rep)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #27 on: December 22, 2005, 07:20:01 am »

Alabama-
out in 2004 Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Chambers, Choctaw, Clarke, Colbert, Conecuh, Coosa, Dallas, Greene, Hale, Jackson, Jefferson, Lawrence, Lowndes, Macon, Madison, Marengo, Mobile, Montgomery, Perry, Pickens, Russell, Sumter, Wilcox (too dem), Autauga, Baldwin, Bibb, Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Chilton, Clay, Cleburne, Coffee, Covington, Crenshaw, Cullman, Dale, DeKalb, Elmore, Escambia, Fayette, Geneva, Henry,  Houston, Lamar, Limestone, Marion, Marshall, Morgan, Randolph, Saint Clair, Shelby, Tallapoosa, Walker, Winston (too rep)
out in 2000 Etowah, Washington (too dem), Lee (too rep)
out in 1996 Franklin, Lauderdale (too dem)
out in 1980 Pike (too rep)
out in 1976 Talladega (too dem), Monroe (too rep)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #28 on: December 22, 2005, 08:19:33 am »

Miss Sippy -
out in 2004 Adams, Benton, Bolivar, Chickasaw, Claiborne, Clay, Coahoma, Copiah, Hinds, Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Jasper, Jefferson, Jefferson Davis, Kemper, Leflore, Lowndes, Marshall, Montgomery, Noxubee, Oktibbeha, Panola, Pike, Quitman, Sharkey, Sunflower, Tallahatchie, Tunica, Washington, Wilkinson, Yalobusha, Yazoo (too dem), Calhoun, Carroll, Choctaw, Clarke, DeSoto, Franklin, George, Greene, Hancock, Harrison, Itawamba, Jackson, Jones, Lamar, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Lee, Lincoln, Madison, Marion, Neshoba, Newton, Pearl River, Perry, Pontotoc, Prentiss, Rankin, Scott, Simpson, Smith, Stone, Tippah, Tishomingo, Union, Wayne, Webster (too rep)
out in 2000  Grenada, Monroe, Winston (too dem), Covington (too rep)
out in 1996 Alcorn, Amite, Walthall (too dem), Forrest (too rep)
out in 1992 Lafayette (too dem)
out in 1984 Attala (too dem)
out in 1980 Leake, Tate (too dem), Warren (too rep)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #29 on: December 22, 2005, 08:34:34 am »

Arkansas- Bradley, Chicot, Clark, Clay, Conway, Crittenden, Dallas, Desha, Fulton, Hempstead, Hot Spring, Izard, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lawrence, Lee, Lincoln, Little River, Mississippi, Monroe, Nevada, Ouachita, Phillips, Poinsett, Pulaski, Randolph, Saint Francis, Woodruff (too dem), Baxter, Benton, Boone, Calhoun, Carroll, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin, Grant, Independence, Logan, Lonoke, Madison, Marion, Miller, Montgomery, Newton, Pike, Polk, Pope, Saline, Scott, Searcy, Sebastian, Stone, Union, White (too rep)
out in 2000 Ashley, Craighead, Cross, Drew, Greene (too dem), Perry, Washington (too rep)
out in 1996 Arkansas, Howard, Prairie, Sevier, Yell (too dem)
out in 1988 Garland (too rep)
out in 1984 Sharp (too rep)
out in 1976 Johnson, Van Buren (too dem)
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« Reply #30 on: December 22, 2005, 08:46:39 am »

Louisiana
out in 2004 Assumption, Avoyelles, Bienville, Caddo, East Carroll, Iberville, Madison, Orleans, Pointe Coupee, Red River, Saint Helena, Saint James, Saint John the Baptist, Saint Landry, Saint Martin, Tensas, West Baton Rouge (too dem), Acadia, Ascension, Beauregard, Bossier, Kramer, Cameron, Catahoula, Concordia, Franklin, Grant, Iberia, Jackson, Jefferson, Jefferson Davis, Lafayette, Lafourche, La Salle, Livingston, Ouachita, Plaquemines, Rapides, Richland, Sabine, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, Terrebonne, Union, Vermilion, Vernon, Washington, Webster, West Carroll, Winn (too rep)
out in 2000 Allen, De Soto, East Feliciana (too dem), Lincoln (too rep)
out in 1996 Evangeline, Natchitoches, West Feliciana (too dem), East Baton Rouge (too rep)
out in 1992 Calcasieu (too dem)
out in 1988 Morehouse (too rep)
out in 1976 Claiborne (too rep)
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Gabu
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« Reply #31 on: December 22, 2005, 09:10:58 am »

I can fill in some of the "pre-1960" ones...

Massachusetts - Middlesex since at least 1960 (despite never voting for Reagan)

Middlesex was last off in 1952, at which time it voted for Eisenhower with a margin 14.27% when the statewide margin was only 8.76%, a differential of 5.51%.

So Middlesex is since 1956.

New Jersey - Burlington, Passaic since at least 1960

Burlington was first off in 1956, when it voted for Eisenhower by a margin of only 22.23%, while the statewide margin was 30.45%, a differential of 8.22%.

Passaic was first off in 1956, when it voted for Eisenhower by a margin of only 23.59%, while the statewide margin was 30.45%, a differential of 6.86%.

So both are since 1960.

Iowa - Poweshiek since at least 1960 (it's tiny, too!)

Poweshiek was last off in 1928 (!) when it voted for Hoover by a margin of 30.32% when the statewide margin was only 24.20%, a differential of 6.12%.

So Poweshiek is since 1932.
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A18
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« Reply #32 on: December 22, 2005, 09:14:26 am »

Nice waste of time
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #33 on: December 22, 2005, 09:22:28 am »

Thank you. Finally some comment. I feel so honoured.

Thanks, Gabu! I'll edit it in. What about Tuscaloosa?
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« Reply #34 on: December 22, 2005, 10:10:16 am »

Oklahoma -
out in 2004 Atoka, Bryan, Caddo, Cherokee, Choctaw, Coal, Craig, Haskell, Hughes, Jefferson, Johnston, Latimer, LeFlore, Love, McIntosh, Marshall, Mayes, Muskogee, Nowata, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Osage, Ottawa, Pittsburg, Pottawatomie, Seminole, Sequoyah (too dem), Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Canadian, Cimarron, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Garfield, Grady, Grant, Harmon, Harper, Jackson, Kay, Kingfisher, Lincoln, Logan, McClain, Major, Noble, Roger Mills, Stephens, Texas, Washington, Wash**ta, Woods, Woodward (too rep)
out in 2000 Cotton, Creek, Delaware, Garvin, Kiowa, Murray, Pawnee, Pontotoc, Pushmataha, Tillman (too dem), McCurtain (too rep)
out in 1996 Adair, Carter, Greer (too dem), Cleveland, Oklahoma, Rogers, Tulsa (too rep)
out in 1984 Payne (too rep)
out in 1976 Wagoner (too dem)
out in 1972 Comanche (too rep)

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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #35 on: December 22, 2005, 10:25:41 am »

Hate that Forum Censor.

Texas. I'll once again do what I did in Georgia.
out in 2004 Bastrop, Bee, Bexar, Brewster, Brooks, Kramer, Cameron, Culberson, Dallas, Dimmit, Duval, El Paso, Falls, Fort Bend, Frio, Galveston, Harris, Hays, Hidalgo, Jefferson, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells, Kenedy, Kleberg, LaSalle, Marion, Maverick, Morris, Newton, Nueces, Presidio, Reeves, Robertson, Travis, Waller, Webb, Willacy, Zapata, Zavala (too dem), hundreds of counties (too rep)
out in 2000 Calhoun, Camp, Cass, Fisher, Foard, Milam, Red River, San Augustine, San Patricio, Val Verde (too dem)
out in 1996 Atascosa, Harrison, Orange (too dem)
out in 1988 Uvalde (too dem), Tarrant (too rep)
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Gabu
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« Reply #36 on: December 22, 2005, 09:57:04 pm »

Thanks, Gabu! I'll edit it in. What about Tuscaloosa?

Tuscaloosa was first off in 1956, when it voted for Stevenson by 23.13%, while the statewide margin was only 17.14%, a differential of 5.99%.

So Tuscaloosa is since 1960.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #37 on: December 23, 2005, 11:12:28 am »

Kansas -
out in 2004 Atchison, Crawford, Douglas, Labette, Leavenworth, Lyon, Shawnee, Wyandotte (too dem), Allen, Anderson, Barber, Barton, Bourbon, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Cheyenne, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Coffee, Comanche, Cowley, Decatur, Dickinson, Doniphan, Edwards, Elk, Ellis, Ellsworth, Finney, Ford, Gove, Graham, Grant, Gray, Greeley, Greenwood, Hamilton, Harper, Haskell, Hodgeman, Jewell, Kearney, Kingman, Kiowa, Lane, Lincoln, Logan, McPherson, Marion, Meade, Mitchell, Montgomery, Morris, Morton, Nemaha, Neosho, Ness, Norton, Osborne, Ottawa, Pawnee, Phillips, Pottawatomie, Pratt, Rawlins, Reno, Republic, Rice, Rooks, Rush, Russell, Saline, Scott, Seward, Sheridan, Sherman, Smith, Stafford, Stanton, Stevens, Sumner, Thomas, Trego, Wabaunsee, Wallace, Washington, Wichita, Wilson, Woodson (too rep)
out in 2000 Cherokee (too dem), Franklin, Harvey (too rep)
out in 1996 Jackson, Linn, Miami (too dem)
out in 1992 Johnson (too rep), Jefferson (too ind)*
out in 1984 Sedgwick (too dem)
out in 1980 Geary (too dem),Marshall (too rep)
out in 1976 Riley (too rep)
out in 1972 Osage (too rep)

* Notice that figures are based on (first in state minus second in state) compared with (first in state minus first (or second if same) in county). That is to say, for 1992 I'm comparing Bush's lead on whoever came second statewide, with Bush's lead, or distance to leader, on whoever came second, or first, in the county. Bush won Kansas by 5.2 points on Clinton that year. He beat Clinton 0.4 points in Jefferson County, but lost to Perot by 1.0 point. This is the first time so far that this detail makes a difference to the result. If we're looking just at the statewide first-statewide second difference, Jefferson Co survives until 1980, when it is too rep.
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« Reply #38 on: December 23, 2005, 11:26:31 am »

Nebraska -
out in 2004 Dakota, Douglas, Gage, Johnson, Lancaster, Saline, Thurston (too dem), Adams, Antelope, Arthur, Banner, Blaine, Boone, Boyd, Brown, Buffalo, Butler, Cedar, Chase, Cherry, Cheyenne, Clay, Colfax, Cuming, Custer, Dawes, Dawson, Deuel, Dundas, Dundy, Fillmore, Franklin, Frontier, Furnas, Garden, Garfield, Gosper, Grant, Greeley, Hall, Hamilton, Harlan, Hayes, Hitchcock, Holt, Hooker, Kearney, Keith, Keya Paha, Kimball, Knox, Logan, Loup, McPherson, Madison, Merrick, Morrill, Nance, Nemaha, Nuckolls, Pawnee, Perkins, Phelps, Pierce, Platte, Polk, Red Willow, Rock, Sarpy, Scotts Bluff, Seward, Sheridan, Sherman, Sioux, Stanton, Thayer, Thomas, Valley, Washington, Wayne, Webster, Wheeler, York (too rep)
out in 2000 Dixon (too rep)
out in 1996 Burt, Jefferson, Richardson (too dem)
out in 1992 Box Butte (too dem), Howard (too ind)*
out in 1988 Cass, Dodge, Lincoln, Saunders (too dem)
out in 1980 Otoe (too rep)
*see Kansas. Out in 1988 (too dem) if Perot ignored.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #39 on: December 23, 2005, 03:42:20 pm »

South Dakota-
out in 2004 Bennett, Brown, Buffalo, Charles Mix, Clay, Corson, Day, Dewey, Lake, Lyman, Marshall, Miner, Minnehaha, Moody, Roberts, Shannon, Todd, Union, Ziebach (too dem), Butte, Campbell, Custer, Douglas, Edmunds, Fall River, Faulk, Gregory, Haakon, Hamlin, Hand, Hanson, Hardin, Hughes, Hutchinson, Hyde, Jones, Lawrence, Lincoln, McPherson, Meade, Pennington, Perkins, Potter, Stanley, Sully, Tripp, Turner, Walworth (too rep)
out in 2000 Beadle, Brookings, Deuel, Jerauld, Yankton (too dem), Jackson, Mellette (too rep)
out in 1996 Bon Homme, Brule, Kingsbury (too dem)
out in 1992 Aurora, Davison, Sanborn, Spink (too dem)
out in 1988 McCook (too dem)
out in 1980 Clark (too rep)
out in 1976 Grant (too dem)
out in 1972 Codington (too dem)
Interesting how the results are skewed by one big overwhelming factor - the massive increase in Sioux dem turnout that is largely why SD trended dem in 2004. (Jackson and Mellette are about 50% Native American in population, though less in voting age population. There is only other county to be "too rep" before 2004.)
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« Reply #40 on: December 23, 2005, 03:56:02 pm »

North Dakota -
out in 2004 Benson, Cass, Divide, Eddy, Grand Forks, Mountrail, Nelson, Ramsey, Ransom, Rolette, Sargent, Sioux, Steele, Towner, Traill (too dem), Adams, Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh, Dickey, Dunn, Emmons, Foster, Golden Valley, Grant, Hettinger, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan, McIntosh, McKenzie, Mercer, Morton, Oliver, Pierce, Sheridan, Slope, Stark, Ward, Williams (too rep)
out in 2000 Pembina, Wells (too rep)
out in 1992 McHenry, Renville (too dem), Cavalier (too rep)
out in 1984 Griggs (too dem)
out in 1980 Barnes, Richland (too dem)
out in 1976 McLean, Walsh (too dem)

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« Reply #41 on: December 23, 2005, 04:22:27 pm »

Montana -
out in 2004 Big Horn, Blaine, Deer Lodge, Gallatin, Glacier, Hill, Lewis and Clark, Missoula, Roosevelt, Rosebud, Sheridan, Silver Bow (too dem), Beaverhead, Broadwater, Carbon, Carter, Chouteau, Custer, Daniels, Dawson, Fallon, Fergus, Flathead, Garfield, Golden Valley, Granite, Jefferson, Judith Basin, Liberty, Lincoln, McCone, Madison, Meagher, Mineral, Musselshell, Petroleum, Phillips, Pondera, Powder River, Powell, Prairie, Ravalli, Richland, Sanders, Stillwater, Sweet Grass, Teton, Toole, Treasure, Valley ,Wheatland, Wibaux (too rep)
out in 2000 Cascade (too dem), Park (too rep)
out in 1992 Yellowstone (too rep)
out in 1980 Lake (too rep)
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« Reply #42 on: December 23, 2005, 04:30:23 pm »

Idaho - rather uninformative result.
Ada, Bannock, Blaine, Bonner, Latah, Nez Perce, Shoshone, Teton, Valley (too dem), Adams, Bear Lake, Bingham, Boise, Bonneville, Butte, Camas, Canyon, Caribou, Cassia, Clark, Custer, Elmore, Franklin, Fremont, Gem, Gooding, Idaho, Jefferson, Jerome, Lemhi, Lewis, Lincoln, Madison, Minidoka, Oneida, Owyhee, Payette, Power, Twin Falls, Washington (too rep)
out in 2000 Kootenai (too dem), Benewah, Boundary, Clearwater (too rep)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #43 on: December 23, 2005, 04:37:59 pm »

Wyoming -
out in 2004 Albany, Laramie, Sweetwater, Teton (too dem), Big Horn, Campbell, Converse, Crook, Hot Springs, Johnson, Lincoln, Niobrara, Park, Sublette, Uinta, Washakie, Weston (too rep)
out in 2000 Carbon, Natrona (too dem)
out in 1996 Goshen (too rep)
out in 1988 Sheridan (too dem)
out in 1980 Platte (too dem)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #44 on: December 23, 2005, 05:00:17 pm »

Colorado
out in 2004 Adams, Boulder, Clear Creek, Conejos, Costilla, Denver, Eagle, Gilpin, Gunnison, Lake, La Plata, Las Animas, Pitkin, Pueblo, Routt, Saguache, San Juan, San Miguel, Summit (too dem), Archuleta, Baca, Bent, Chaffee, Cheyenne, Crowley, Custer, Delta, Dolores, Douglas, Elbert, El Paso, Fremont, Grand, Hinsdale, Jackson, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan, Mesa, Mineral, Moffat, Montezuma, Montrose, Morgan, Otero, Park, Phillips, Prowers, Rio Blanco, Rio Grande, Sedgwick, Teller, Washington, Weld, Yuma (too rep)
out in 2000 Huerfano (too dem), Garfield, Larimer, Ouray (too rep)
out in 1996 Alamosa (too dem), Arapahoe (too rep)
out in 1992 Jefferson (too rep)
An extra problem posed by Broomfield County, created from parts of four counties past 2000 and within bellwether range in 2004.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #45 on: December 23, 2005, 05:07:55 pm »

New Mexico -
out in 2004 Cibola, Grant, Guadalupe, McKinley, Mora, Rio Arriba, San Miguel, Santa Fe, Taos (too dem), Catron, Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Harding, Hidalgo, Lea, Lincoln, Luna, Otero, Quay, Roosevelt, San Juan, Sierra, Torrance, Union, Valencia (too rep)
out in 2000 Dona Ana (too dem), Los Alamos (too rep)
out in 1996 Colfax, Socorro (too dem)
out in 1984 Sandoval (too dem)
out in 1976 Bernalillo (too rep)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #46 on: December 23, 2005, 05:11:36 pm »

Arizona -
out in 2004 Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz (too dem), Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Mohave, Yavapai, Yuma (too rep)
out in 1996 Navajo, Pinal (too dem)
out in 1992 Maricopa (too rep)
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« Reply #47 on: December 23, 2005, 05:25:53 pm »

Deseret -
out in 2004 Carbon, Grand, Salt Lake, San Juan, Summit (too dem), Beaver, Box Elder, Cache, Daggett, Davis, Duchesne, Emery, Garfield, Iron, Juab, Kane, Millard, Morgan, Piute, Rich, Sanpete, Sevier, Uintah, Utah, Washington, Wayne (too rep)
out in 2000 Tooele, Weber (too dem)
out in 1988 Wasatch (too dem)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #48 on: December 23, 2005, 05:28:14 pm »

Nevada -
out in 2004 Clark (too dem), Carson City city, Churchill, Douglas, Elko, Esmeralda, Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, Lincoln, Lyon, Mineral, Nye, Pershing, Storey, White Pine (too rep)
out in 2000 Washoe (too rep)
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« Reply #49 on: December 23, 2005, 05:38:38 pm »

Wahsintone
out in 2004 Jefferson, King, San Juan, Thurston (too dem), Adams, Asotin, Benton, Chelan, Clallam, Clark, Columbia, Douglas, Ferry, Franklin, Garfield, Grant, Island, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Lincoln, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Skagit, Skamania, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, Walla Walla, Whitman, Yakima (too rep)
out in 2000 Whatcom (too rep)
out in 1996 Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Pacific, Pierce (too dem)
out in 1992 Kitsap (too rep)
out in 1976 Mason (too dem)
out in 1968 Snohomish (too dem) (even though it's actually a bad bellwether as to who wins the state, going dem in 76 but rep in 88 - the state's closest recent elections)

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