The Declining Swing States

[Kingpoleon]

227: Democratic
217: Republican
94: Swing States

I debated whether or not to count Florida as a swing state, but I decided not to. This map demonstrates that it’s pretty difficult for a candidate to even do Romney 2012 in the EC without losing a significant amount of support. Now, if Democrats can force Texas and Florida into being swing states or even Tilt D, Republicans may get to being at a disadvantage in the PV. After all, 2004, 2008, and 2012 all would have gone Democratic in the EC if the PV was tied.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If 2024 is a neutral year, I think that's how the map will look with maybe redistricting moving NE-2 Republicana gain.

[Hope For A New Era]

If 2024 is a neutral year, I think that's how the map will look with maybe redistricting moving NE-2 Republicana gain.

I think it's too D now. No choice but to create a sink, unless the state party wants to risk accidentally creating two D districts during the next D wave.

Probably going to be some kind of shoestring linking central Lincoln and Omaha.

[Former President tack50]

If 2024 is a neutral year, I think that's how the map will look with maybe redistricting moving NE-2 Republicana gain.

I think it's too D now. No choice but to create a sink, unless the state party wants to risk accidentally creating two D districts during the next D wave.

Probably going to be some kind of shoestring linking central Lincoln and Omaha.

Unless there are some anti-gerrymandering rules I am unaware of, it is extremely easy to create an R gerrymander of Nebraska by just splitting Omaha in 2. It doesn't even need to be that ugly as far as gerrymanders go:



The lightest red here is still Trump+15, Rickets+11 and R+10. Even with trends it should be relatively safe for Republicans? (certainly no worse than Lean R; and probably more like Likely R)

And this is a gerrymander where I deliberately held back in favour of a clean map. It is certainly very easy to extend the district further into the rurals to make it even safer

Plus, given how NE-01 is nowhere near close to flipping, it makes no sense to sink that? At worst it's better to have a Lean D district than a Safe D one

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

If 2024 is a neutral year, I think that's how the map will look with maybe redistricting moving NE-2 Republicana gain.

I think it's too D now. No choice but to create a sink, unless the state party wants to risk accidentally creating two D districts during the next D wave.

Probably going to be some kind of shoestring linking central Lincoln and Omaha.

Unless there are some anti-gerrymandering rules I am unaware of, it is extremely easy to create an R gerrymander of Nebraska by just splitting Omaha in 2. It doesn't even need to be that ugly as far as gerrymanders go:

The lightest red here is still Trump+15, Rickets+11 and R+10. Even with trends it should be relatively safe for Republicans? (certainly no worse than Lean R; and probably more like Likely R)

And this is a gerrymander where I deliberately held back in favour of a clean map. It is certainly very easy to extend the district further into the rurals to make it even safer

I just don't see why they would do it now if they didn't do that after 2008. It's not like the current NE-02 was Safe R before Trump. Did Republicans in 2010 think Obama was just a fluke and that Douglas County would have come back to voting Republican by double digits??

[vileplume]

If 2024 is a neutral year, I think that's how the map will look with maybe redistricting moving NE-2 Republicana gain.

Is there any chance they just decide to make the state winner take all instead?

[Suburbia]

Electoral college has to go