Top 10 Gubernatorial Races of 2006 - Chris Cillizza.
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  Top 10 Gubernatorial Races of 2006 - Chris Cillizza.
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Moooooo
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« on: December 19, 2005, 11:42:48 PM »

From the WaPo:

10. Florida -- OPEN, Gov. Jeb Bush (R) is retiring: Both parties are hosting two-way primaries.  For Democrats, Rep. Jim Davis and state Sen. Rod Smith are facing off, while on the Republican side it's state Attorney General Charlie Crist going head to head with state Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher.  That's where the similarities end, however.  The two Republicans are well-known and well-financed.  The two Democrats are little known statewide and have regularly trailed their Republican rivals in the cash chase. But national political atmospherics clearly favor Democrats at the moment, and neither Crist nor Gallagher has the star power that Jeb Bush brought to the ticket. (Previous ranking: N/A.)

9. Oregon -- Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D): Kulongoski's biggest problem at the moment comes from within his own party where a number of Democrats are jockeying to oust him.  The biggest name of that bunch is former Gov. John Kitzhaber, who has said he will make a decision on the race next month. If Kitzhaber, who has played the political Hamlet since leaving office in 2002, decides to run, he would begin the primary as a favorite.  And if he was able to unseat Kulongoski, Kitzhaber as nominee would make the seat decidedly safer for Democrats next November. (Previous ranking: 8.)

8. Arkansas -- OPEN: Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) is retiring: State Attorney General Mike Beebe (D) continues to round up support from his party, receiving glowing reviews for his speech at the state Democratic Party committee meeting last weekend. Beebe also has done an outstanding job of fundraising and seems likely to crest the $2 million mark by the end of the year.  Former Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R) is no slouch as a candidate and will likely get some boost from the popular Huckabee, who has pledged to go all out to elect a Republican as his successor.   (Previous ranking: 9.)

7. California -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): A Field Poll released just before Thanksgiving encapsulates the divergent elements at work in this race.  Schwarzenegger is almost universally known in the state but has a higher unfavorable rating (54 percent) than favorable (38 percent) -- never a good sign for an incumbent. But Schwarzenegger's two likely opponents -- state Controller Steve Westly and state Treasurer Phil Angelides -- are known by less than one-third of the electorate. In most states that kind of name notification deficit would be easily remediable with several months of television advertising. But given the prohibitive cost of television time in the Golden State, becoming a household name politically is a much harder task.  Californians seem ready for a change, but if Schwarzenegger can define his Democratic opponent early on, voters may opt for the devil they know. (Previous ranking: 7.)

6. Michigan -- Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D): This race is currently all potential for Republicans. If  Dick DeVos (R) (son of Amway founder Richard Devos) drops tens of millions into the race, and if his message catches on with voters in the state, and if the national climate doesn't go any further south for Republicans -- then Granholm is beatable. One thing we know for sure is that the state's economy continues to struggle, and Granholm must find a good way to explain it to voters so that she doesn't bear the brunt of the blame. For now, Granholm does have a cushion. A recent EPIC/MRA poll showed her with a 23 percent edge over DeVos. Still, Republicans remain decidedly optimistic. (Previous ranking: 6.)

5. Maryland -- Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R): Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley's selection of state Del. Anthony Brown, an African American legislator from Prince George's County, drew widespread praise both within the party and among influential media types in the state.  The pick furthers O'Malley's momentum in his primary against Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan, although Duncan (for now) has given no sign that he is reconsidering his bid. Ehrlich faces a tough job of convincing voters in this Democratic-leaning state to cross the aisle to support him for a second term, but he has shown a knack for doing just that during both his time in Congress and in the 2002 gubernatorial race. Still, O'Malley's growing strength should be worrisome for Republicans hoping to hang onto this seat. (Previous ranking: 5.)

4. Iowa -- OPEN, Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) is retiring: This race drops a spot solely because of Romney's announcement. Republicans have a right to feel good here as Rep. Jim Nussle (R) is running a strong campaign (though Bob Vander Plaats's (R) campaign is showing some life, attacking Nussle on his stewardship of the nation's budget while in Congress).  The Democratic race is more wide open, although secretary of state Chet Culver seems to be bouncing back from a slow start; Culver also likely got a boost from a recent independent poll that showed him giving Nussle the closest race of any of the announced Democrats. (Previous ranking: 3.)

3. Ohio -- OPEN, Gov. Bob Taft (R) is retiring: Rep. Ted Strickland's campaign for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination got a major boost at the end of last month when Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman dropped his bid for the nomination. But on Thursday a new roadblock was thrown in front of Strickland as Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) said she was considering a run for governor. Should Kaptur run she would enjoy strong support from organized labor. The Fix is betting she takes a pass, but until she does this race drops one slot.  Republicans seem to have a two-way fight on their hands between Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell and state Attorney General Jim Petro, though state Auditor Betty Montgomery continues to insist she will stay in the race. (Previous ranking: 2.)

2. Massachusetts -- OPEN, Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is retiring: Romney's decision not to run for a second term bumps this race up two spots on the line. While polls showed Romney trailing state Attorney General Thomas Reilly -- the likely Democratic nominee -- he would have made this a competitive contest had he stayed in the race. Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, who will almost assuredly be the GOP nominee, is an untested political figure who will be forced to answer for some of the shortcomings of Romney's term. Combine that dynamic with the Democratic nature of the state and Reilly looks well positioned to reclaim the governor's mansion after 16 years in the political desert.  (Previous ranking: 4.)

1. New York -- OPEN, Gov. George Pataki (R) is retiring: No change at the top of the governors line this month. State Attorney General Elliot Spitzer (D) led all his potential Republican rivals by margins varying from 38 points to 50 points in a Quinnipiac poll out early this week. Meanwhile, the New York Republican party can't seem to get everyone singing out of the same song book.  Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld remains the likely Republican nominee, but the possibility of super-rich Tom Golisano entering the race complicates Weld's mission. (Previous ranking: 1.)
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2005, 11:46:18 PM »

Interesting list, but top 10 what?
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Moooooo
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« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2005, 11:50:45 PM »

Interesting list, but top 10 what?

Switches, I guess.  Top 10 Races to watch.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2005, 12:00:14 AM »

Bredesen is certainly more beatable than Granholm.  We don't even need a multi-millionare... just a half-way credible candidate!
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Erc
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« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2005, 12:06:06 AM »

Bredesen is far more likely to face a challenge from a Democrat than a Republican, I should think.
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socaldem
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« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2005, 12:07:06 AM »

From the WaPo:

10. Florida -- OPEN, Gov. Jeb Bush (R) is retiring: Both parties are hosting two-way primaries.  For Democrats, Rep. Jim Davis and state Sen. Rod Smith are facing off, while on the Republican side it's state Attorney General Charlie Crist going head to head with state Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher.  That's where the similarities end, however.  The two Republicans are well-known and well-financed.  The two Democrats are little known statewide and have regularly trailed their Republican rivals in the cash chase. But national political atmospherics clearly favor Democrats at the moment, and neither Crist nor Gallagher has the star power that Jeb Bush brought to the ticket. (Previous ranking: N/A.)

9. Oregon -- Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D): Kulongoski's biggest problem at the moment comes from within his own party where a number of Democrats are jockeying to oust him.  The biggest name of that bunch is former Gov. John Kitzhaber, who has said he will make a decision on the race next month. If Kitzhaber, who has played the political Hamlet since leaving office in 2002, decides to run, he would begin the primary as a favorite.  And if he was able to unseat Kulongoski, Kitzhaber as nominee would make the seat decidedly safer for Democrats next November. (Previous ranking: 8.)

8. Arkansas -- OPEN: Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) is retiring: State Attorney General Mike Beebe (D) continues to round up support from his party, receiving glowing reviews for his speech at the state Democratic Party committee meeting last weekend. Beebe also has done an outstanding job of fundraising and seems likely to crest the $2 million mark by the end of the year.  Former Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R) is no slouch as a candidate and will likely get some boost from the popular Huckabee, who has pledged to go all out to elect a Republican as his successor.   (Previous ranking: 9.)

7. California -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): A Field Poll released just before Thanksgiving encapsulates the divergent elements at work in this race.  Schwarzenegger is almost universally known in the state but has a higher unfavorable rating (54 percent) than favorable (38 percent) -- never a good sign for an incumbent. But Schwarzenegger's two likely opponents -- state Controller Steve Westly and state Treasurer Phil Angelides -- are known by less than one-third of the electorate. In most states that kind of name notification deficit would be easily remediable with several months of television advertising. But given the prohibitive cost of television time in the Golden State, becoming a household name politically is a much harder task.  Californians seem ready for a change, but if Schwarzenegger can define his Democratic opponent early on, voters may opt for the devil they know. (Previous ranking: 7.)

6. Michigan -- Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D): This race is currently all potential for Republicans. If  Dick DeVos (R) (son of Amway founder Richard Devos) drops tens of millions into the race, and if his message catches on with voters in the state, and if the national climate doesn't go any further south for Republicans -- then Granholm is beatable. One thing we know for sure is that the state's economy continues to struggle, and Granholm must find a good way to explain it to voters so that she doesn't bear the brunt of the blame. For now, Granholm does have a cushion. A recent EPIC/MRA poll showed her with a 23 percent edge over DeVos. Still, Republicans remain decidedly optimistic. (Previous ranking: 6.)

5. Maryland -- Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R): Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley's selection of state Del. Anthony Brown, an African American legislator from Prince George's County, drew widespread praise both within the party and among influential media types in the state.  The pick furthers O'Malley's momentum in his primary against Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan, although Duncan (for now) has given no sign that he is reconsidering his bid. Ehrlich faces a tough job of convincing voters in this Democratic-leaning state to cross the aisle to support him for a second term, but he has shown a knack for doing just that during both his time in Congress and in the 2002 gubernatorial race. Still, O'Malley's growing strength should be worrisome for Republicans hoping to hang onto this seat. (Previous ranking: 5.)

4. Iowa -- OPEN, Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) is retiring: This race drops a spot solely because of Romney's announcement. Republicans have a right to feel good here as Rep. Jim Nussle (R) is running a strong campaign (though Bob Vander Plaats's (R) campaign is showing some life, attacking Nussle on his stewardship of the nation's budget while in Congress).  The Democratic race is more wide open, although secretary of state Chet Culver seems to be bouncing back from a slow start; Culver also likely got a boost from a recent independent poll that showed him giving Nussle the closest race of any of the announced Democrats. (Previous ranking: 3.)

3. Ohio -- OPEN, Gov. Bob Taft (R) is retiring: Rep. Ted Strickland's campaign for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination got a major boost at the end of last month when Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman dropped his bid for the nomination. But on Thursday a new roadblock was thrown in front of Strickland as Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) said she was considering a run for governor. Should Kaptur run she would enjoy strong support from organized labor. The Fix is betting she takes a pass, but until she does this race drops one slot.  Republicans seem to have a two-way fight on their hands between Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell and state Attorney General Jim Petro, though state Auditor Betty Montgomery continues to insist she will stay in the race. (Previous ranking: 2.)

2. Massachusetts -- OPEN, Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is retiring: Romney's decision not to run for a second term bumps this race up two spots on the line. While polls showed Romney trailing state Attorney General Thomas Reilly -- the likely Democratic nominee -- he would have made this a competitive contest had he stayed in the race. Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, who will almost assuredly be the GOP nominee, is an untested political figure who will be forced to answer for some of the shortcomings of Romney's term. Combine that dynamic with the Democratic nature of the state and Reilly looks well positioned to reclaim the governor's mansion after 16 years in the political desert.  (Previous ranking: 4.)

1. New York -- OPEN, Gov. George Pataki (R) is retiring: No change at the top of the governors line this month. State Attorney General Elliot Spitzer (D) led all his potential Republican rivals by margins varying from 38 points to 50 points in a Quinnipiac poll out early this week. Meanwhile, the New York Republican party can't seem to get everyone singing out of the same song book.  Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld remains the likely Republican nominee, but the possibility of super-rich Tom Golisano entering the race complicates Weld's mission. (Previous ranking: 1.)

All lists of 2004 races should just ignore New York.  It's such a sure Dem pick-up that its not even worth discussing... instead more attention needs to be paid to races like Colorado, Nevada, and even Illinois where I think there might be some real action.
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« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2005, 01:52:28 AM »

New York and Mass shouldn't be on any list of highly competitive gubernatorial contests in 06, let alone as the top two.
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MissCatholic
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« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2005, 08:57:05 AM »

If the dems dont win New York i will eat the moon.

Colorado is a state that the dems must try and win.
Georgia would give the dems a great boast.
The dems have to find a candidate in Alaska because this republican farce just cant continue.

For the Republicans, Tennessee and Illinois can all be possible pickups.

Regarding the top 10
New York = Democrat pickup
Massachusetts = Democrat pickup.
Ohio = Democratic Pickup.
Iowa = Republican Pickup.
Maryland = Democratic Pickup.
Michigan = Democrat hold.
California = Democratic Pickup.
Arkansas = Demcroatic Pickup.
Oregon = Demcorat hold.
Florida = Republican hold.

Dems 27 Rep 23
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2005, 09:58:22 AM »

Bredesen is far more likely to face a challenge from a Democrat than a Republican, I should think.

Either way he's beatable Smiley

Bredesen pretty much has all the major Democrats snookered.  Only State Senator Steve Cohen is beyond his grasp.  Cohen is easily the most liberal member of the senate, but also has one of the best working relationships with GOP members of the legislature and has picked more than his fair share of fights with the Governor.  I'd say he's the most likely Dem to make a primary challenge, but I doubt he would at this point.

Sen. Majority leader Ron Ramsey or Sen. Mark Norris would be perfect GOP candidates, but both have disavowed interest.  Barring some surprise, Rep. Beth Harwell may be our last best hope.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #9 on: December 20, 2005, 01:13:43 PM »

former mass turnpike authority board member and businessman, christy mihos is eyeing a third party candidacy for governor.

he is a republican but is too chicken to take on kerry healey in the primary.
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« Reply #10 on: December 20, 2005, 02:34:50 PM »

former mass turnpike authority board member and businessman, christy mihos is eyeing a third party candidacy for governor.

he is a republican but is too chicken to take on kerry healey in the primary.

A man named Christy?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2005, 09:55:53 PM »

former mass turnpike authority board member and businessman, christy mihos is eyeing a third party candidacy for governor.

he is a republican but is too chicken to take on kerry healey in the primary.

A man named Christy?

yes.  he is a pretty horrible person.
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« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2005, 10:32:24 PM »

former mass turnpike authority board member and businessman, christy mihos is eyeing a third party candidacy for governor.

he is a republican but is too chicken to take on kerry healey in the primary.
A man named Christy?
yes.  he is a pretty horrible person.

His parents must be too.
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Virginian87
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« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2005, 10:43:31 PM »

I'm not sure if I'd get too confident about Iowa.  Nussle is the real deal and he has a damn good chance of a win next year.  I don't really know anything about Chet Culver, but let's hope he tries his best next year.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #14 on: December 21, 2005, 03:57:41 PM »

The Reps ought to pick up at least one Governorship, so yeah, I suspect Iowa will go Red.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #15 on: December 21, 2005, 04:00:20 PM »

Illinois and Iowa probably have the best chance of switching from Dem to Rep. Wisconsin and Maine could also conceivably flip. Michigan is unlikely.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #16 on: December 21, 2005, 04:02:23 PM »

Illinois and Maine I think are too Democratic as states to go Republican. Wisconsin though is pretty likely I guess.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #17 on: December 21, 2005, 04:13:27 PM »

Illinois and Maine I think are too Democratic as states to go Republican.

Governorships are not as partisan as Senate seats or presidential elections. The deepest red state (like Wyoming) can elect a Democratic governor while a deep blue state (like Vermont or RI) can elect a Republican governor.
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muon2
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« Reply #18 on: December 22, 2005, 06:52:36 PM »

I'm surprised that IL is not on the list, particularly compared to MI. The current SUSA polls are very similar for Granholm and Blagojevich (41% approve, 54-53% disapprove). But head-to-head polls for Granholm vs. a challenger (a 23% margin quoted by the blog) are better than the 9-13% margin over possible challengers in polling taken in early Dec.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #19 on: December 28, 2005, 01:59:53 PM »

Illinois and Maine I think are too Democratic as states to go Republican.

Governorships are not as partisan as Senate seats or presidential elections. The deepest red state (like Wyoming) can elect a Democratic governor while a deep blue state (like Vermont or RI) can elect a Republican governor.

That is true, but it still matters. a), If the state party is in really bad shape, like the GOP in Illinois is. Secondly, most of the time a state aligned towards one party will vote for it unless they have a good reason not to. I'm not seeing that reason in Maine. Thirdly, I suspect that ticket-splitting will continue its decline in the last years. The country is increasingly polarized and as a lot of Democrats and Republicans have discovered in the last years it's getting increasingly difficult to win at all levels in hostile states. Look at how the Democrats in the last years have lost positions in the South, for instance. Most places that have shown remarkable differences between presidential voting and state-wide voting are becoming more monlithic (MA, NY in this cycle, many Southern states previously).

Obviously, people will still get elected from states strongly for the other party, but not if they don't give the voters a good reason.
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