Univision/UH: Cornyn +1

[Skye]

Cornyn (R, inc.) 41
Generic Democrat 40

Hispanics break 58-22 for the Democrat.

Also, just 30% think either O'Rourke or Castro should enter the race.

https://static.univision.com/especiales/noticias/infografias/2019/encuesta-septiembre/univision_national_texas_poll.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, I never bought Cornyn being safe or unbeatable. Gonna be a close race.

[Xing]

While I'm guessing Trump and Cornyn hold Texas down in 2020, the longterm trend there should definitely worry Republicans.

[Person Man]

While I'm guessing Trump and Cornyn hold Texas down in 2020, the longterm trend there should definitely worry Republicans.

If Trump wins. Like I have said, I don't expect a democrat to do very well in a close election. The last close one they won was in 1976.

[Frenchrepublican]

Yeah, I never bought Cornyn being safe or unbeatable. Gonna be a close race.

It’s not that simple ; this poll has Trump down 5 against his democratic opponents (on average) and his approval rate is -12 (less than his nationwide approval rate), the fact that Cornyn is still leading by 1 despite these two elements disproves the idea that the race will be very close, at least in my opinion

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news for Hegar.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yeah, I never bought Cornyn being safe or unbeatable. Gonna be a close race.

It’s not that simple ; this poll has Trump down 5 against his democratic opponents (on average) and his approval rate is -12 (less than his nationwide approval rate), the fact that Cornyn is still leading by 1 despite these two elements disproves the idea that the race will be very close, at least in my opinion

And you and Mr. Computer are entitled to that.

[President Johnson]

Generic Democrat polls are usually useless, especially this far out. But Cornyn stuck at 41% isn't a good sign for him. Lean Republican for now; probably closer to likely than tossup. But it's early and things can change.

Beto obviously made a huge miscalculation with his presidential campaign. Jumping back into the senate race now would make him look like a desperate officeseeker. That's why only 30% want him to run now.

[Calthrina950]

Generic Democrat polls are usually useless, especially this far out. But Cornyn stuck at 41% isn't a good sign for him. Lean Republican for now; probably closer to likely than tossup. But it's early and things can change.

Beto obviously made a huge miscalculation with his presidential campaign. Jumping back into the senate race now would make him look like a desperate officeseeker. That's why only 30% want him to run now.

Even though this poll seems flawed to me (how can there be that many undecideds?), I think that it is more likely than not that Cornyn will be held to a mid to high single digit margin in 2020. And it's also clear to me that O'Rourke would have been well poised to knock Cornyn off next year had he not launched his vain presidential bid, or if he had dropped out months ago. His last opportunity to pivot was back in August, but instead he decided to renew his presidential campaign.

[Gracile]

Maybe a tad generous to the Democrats (Trump -12 approval is a bit hard to believe), but this is like the fifth poll to show Texas being somewhat competitive.

[MillennialModerate]

Safe Republican and you’re in denial if you think otherwise.

Beto would’ve made this a Likely Republican seat if he didn’t say what he said in the debate about guns (Granted I agree with his position 100% but shouldn’t have said it if he had any plans of running for senate)

[We Live in Black and White]

Safe Republican and you’re in denial if you think otherwise.

So let me guess: you're one of the fine Americans who have already conveniently forgotten about 2018, right?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its bold, but with impeachment of Trump becoming more, not less likely, TX will turn blue in 2020, its time for radical, not incrimental reform.

[MillennialModerate]

Safe Republican and you’re in denial if you think otherwise.

So let me guess: you're one of the fine Americans who have already conveniently forgotten about 2018, right?

Just the opposite in fact..

In 2018 a young, charismatic candidate that was able to bring young people out in droves .. against a candidate even some republicans couldn’t stand .....and on election night returns were coming in and everyone was SHOCKED at how close it was and excitement was building and building......

Only for the guy to lose by four points

[IceSpear]

Safe Republican and you’re in denial if you think otherwise.

So let me guess: you're one of the fine Americans who have already conveniently forgotten about 2018, right?

I believe he was one of the people predicting a red wave until the literal day of the election.

[Mr. Smith]

Safe Republican and you’re in denial if you think otherwise.

So let me guess: you're one of the fine Americans who have already conveniently forgotten about 2018, right?

Just the opposite in fact..

In 2018 a young, charismatic candidate that was able to bring young people out in droves .. against a candidate even some republicans couldn’t stand .....and on election night returns were coming in and everyone was SHOCKED at how close it was and excitement was building and building......

Only for the guy to lose by four points

By 2 points, while the average polls had Cruz up by 4.

[UncleSam]

Ok beto lost by 2.6 points to Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz is not a strong candidate and 2018 was a good Dem year, particularly in Texas.

It is extremely unlikely this race will be competitive in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX isnt needed to win EC, but TX Rs retirements hurt Rs chances in TX and Dems do need a mandate. The last two elections that were won by Ds, were mandates and TX can flip in a wave

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

They won't be running Unbeatable Titan Generic Democrat here, which leads me to believe this will be a single-digit Cornyn win.

[We Live in Black and White]

Safe Republican and you’re in denial if you think otherwise.

So let me guess: you're one of the fine Americans who have already conveniently forgotten about 2018, right?

I believe he was one of the people predicting a red wave until the literal day of the election.

And now he's one of the people pretending 2018 never happened to suit his sky-is-falling narrative. Gotcha. Onto ignore!

[DrScholl]

Ok beto lost by 2.6 points to Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz is not a strong candidate and 2018 was a good Dem year, particularly in Texas.

It is extremely unlikely this race will be competitive in 2020.

Since when was Ted Cruz ever a bad candidate? He certainly isn't the most personable candidate, but he didn't have any scandals or major problems that caused the race to be close. Texas just isn't the safe Republican state it was before. Reality bites for Republicans.

[UncleSam]

Ok beto lost by 2.6 points to Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz is not a strong candidate and 2018 was a good Dem year, particularly in Texas.

It is extremely unlikely this race will be competitive in 2020.

Since when was Ted Cruz ever a bad candidate? He certainly isn't the most personable candidate, but he didn't have any scandals or major problems that caused the race to be close. Texas just isn't the safe Republican state it was before. Reality bites for Republicans.

Seriously? Ted Cruz consistently underperforms generic R margins because he is viewed unfavorably by even a majority of Texans due to his complete lack of charisma, obvious further political ambitions, and generally annoying attitude that makes him work poorly with others - even within his own party. In what way is he not a bad candidate?

[Nyvin]

Ok beto lost by 2.6 points to Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz is not a strong candidate and 2018 was a good Dem year, particularly in Texas.

It is extremely unlikely this race will be competitive in 2020.

Since when was Ted Cruz ever a bad candidate? He certainly isn't the most personable candidate, but he didn't have any scandals or major problems that caused the race to be close. Texas just isn't the safe Republican state it was before. Reality bites for Republicans.

Seriously? Ted Cruz consistently underperforms generic R margins because he is viewed unfavorably by even a majority of Texans due to his complete lack of charisma, obvious further political ambitions, and generally annoying attitude that makes him work poorly with others - even within his own party. In what way is he not a bad candidate?

Then what about the State House?   Why did it follow more to the Senate race rather than the Governor race in terms of votes?   The Republicans only won the State House vote by 5.94% in 2018.   That's substantially lower than Trump's numbers and Trump's numbers in 2016 were already bad when compared to previous elections.  

When you look at the Congressional House races, the Republicans only won by 3.4%.

This idea that Cruz vs O'Rourke was just "bad candidate vs good candidate" is nonsense.   There's way too much data pointing at something else going on.

[MillennialModerate]

Safe Republican and you’re in denial if you think otherwise.

So let me guess: you're one of the fine Americans who have already conveniently forgotten about 2018, right?

I believe he was one of the people predicting a red wave until the literal day of the election.

And now he's one of the people pretending 2018 never happened to suit his sky-is-falling narrative. Gotcha. Onto ignore!

It’s not sky is falling it’s tampering unrealistic optimism. It’s not wanting to make the same mistakes we’ve been making for a while. It’s being terrified that the way 35% of the population is literally brainwashed.

BUT... I didn’t predict a Red wave. I predicted a Dem house pickup of 10-15 seats, just shy of a takeover of the house. I predicted GOP picks up MO, IN, ND. Dems pick up AZ. So I was slightly more pessimistic on the house side and a push on the Senate

[Virginiá]

Just the opposite in fact..

In 2018 a young, charismatic candidate that was able to bring young people out in droves .. against a candidate even some republicans couldn’t stand .....and on election night returns were coming in and everyone was SHOCKED at how close it was and excitement was building and building......

Only for the guy to lose by four points

Turnout in Texas was high (relatively speaking) along with every other state in the country. Beto wasn't responsible for all of that. He might have made a small contribution, but that's it. The more polarized things get, the less individual candidates matter.