I don't think they'll win this case on the merits, but I don't think the legal argument is particularly far-fetched: if identifiable partisans are prohibited from serving on "independent" redistricting commissions (like the MI law allows), then the government is barring them from participating in what SCOTUS has called a strictly political process on the basis of their association with a political party.
Eh, if the law actually barred individuals from serving on the commission based purely on party registration, that would be a strong argument. As I understand it, Michigan’s law just bars current candidates for office, party officials, and registered lobbyists from serving on the redistricting commission. Thats just basic separation of powers and avoidance of conflict of interest stuff.
